PDA

View Full Version : do you take this bet???????


morgant
05-06-2004, 07:58 PM
this happened and am interested to what some of you would do?

i was at foxwoods, after playing roughly 13hrs of 10-20, i find myself in a 1/2 nlhe 100 max buy in game, having some fun before i call it a day/night/session etc.... it is 7amish and the table is 5-6 handed with some of the regular young dudes who like to get loud and play around with people they dont know or believe they can intimidate ie, chris, joe, D(think daren). anyways, couple limpers to me in sb with th8c i complete the sb checks. flop comes ts 9d 2d, the bb has around $40 is and is brand new to poker, i have him well covered. i put a ~$10 bet out there. to which he goes all in to me. i ponder, i am playing loose, having fun, and am showing down at most reasonable opportunities. i call his bet. he has td 6d. i dont like my spot here, and dont feel i have the edge i feel comfortable being all in with and will be sweating to dodge each incoming card(not to this degree per the stakes, but the senses are still the same). here is the probability part. chris(if you have been to foxwoods you know who is he, tall(bigfoot) young loud kid) stops the dealers burn and turn, and asks me if i want a side bet? he will lay me odds on the kid winning the hand. i ask what odds he will give. he replies i put up $30 to your $25. now, i am delriously tired, not capable regardless of mindsight to figure out the exact odds of this without some tools(paper, pen, computer..etc.) i play this one by feel. i decline, and didnt bother with haggling for better odds. i didnt like being this heavily invested in this hand at this point, and a $5 overlay was not worth in my mind risking the additional $25 on a hand i felt i was aptly able to lose or chop. if i was able to consult and think this through thoroughly, i now believe i should have taken this bett???????

dogsballs
05-06-2004, 08:18 PM
www.twodimes.net (http://www.twodimes.net) makes him 55 to 45% favourite.


20 to win 25 when you're 45 - 55.

getting sklansky like: 45/100 of the time you win 25. 55% lose 20.

Or your EV is 45/100 x $25 - [55/100 x 20] = 10.125 - 11

= minus $0.875


= no bet.

daryn
05-06-2004, 09:19 PM
the guy offered him 30-25 not 25-20


20 to win 25 when you're 45 - 55.

getting sklansky like: 45/100 of the time you win 30. 55% lose 25.

Or your EV is 45/100 x $30 - [55/100 x 25] = 13.5 - 13.75

= minus $0.25


still bad

sthief09
05-07-2004, 07:31 AM
the guy was laying him 30-25 that the kid would win, not that the kid would win a pot that wasn't chopped. the kid will only win outright about 45% of the time. morgant will win or split 55% of the time.

or am I misunderstanding something?

morgant
05-07-2004, 02:10 PM
the bet was 30-25 that the kid would win. nothing was said about chopping, so i assume that if the hand was chopped, our side bet would be a wash.

MicroBob
05-07-2004, 06:02 PM
i believe that % of SD won stat online includes pots that are chopped.
i know it does this on stars....in the last KOTZ i had chopped a couple of pots but it told me i was 6-for-6 (100%) at showdown.


if you had covered this aspect ahead of time, you could have included a legitimate argument that you win the bet as long as you are winning 'some' money from the pot.

if he would have gone for this then i suspect that would turn the bet into +ev.....but one doubts whether he would have agreed to this.