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umdpoker
05-06-2004, 04:47 PM
i just saw the classified ad, and i wanted to make sure your numbers are correct. those expected values seem a little high to me. do they really only have a .036% advantage in blackjack? i thought it was in the area of 1%

Homer
05-06-2004, 06:50 PM
do they really only have a .036% advantage in blackjack? i thought it was in the area of 1%

The house advantage for Casino-on-Net's game (4D, S17, DOA, DAS) is 0.36% (or .0036), not .036%. Generally speaking, the house advantage in blackjack ranges from .2-.8%, depending on the specific house rules.

-- Homer

jek187
05-06-2004, 09:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
i wanted to make sure your numbers are correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Homer is quite accurate when it comes to EV numbers. The other numbers (like the hourly rate for Casino On Net being over $1,000/hr) I can personally attest to. I just did that bonus the other day...40 hands of blackjack at $10/hand and I'm $200 richer. Piece of cake. As I said in the ad, this Casino Whoring business is even worth the high roller's time.

umdpoker
05-06-2004, 09:22 PM
SWEET. I REALLY NEED A BREAK FROM THE BAD BEATS THAT HAVE BEEN KILLING ME LATELY. HOW DO I TRANSFER MONEY TO THEM THOUGH? I LIVE IN MD, SO MY NETELLER ACCOUNT WAS CLOSED (I HATE MD) WHAT IS THE FASTEST WAY TO GET MONEY THERE AND BACK?

gabyyyyy
05-06-2004, 11:50 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Generally speaking, the house advantage in blackjack ranges from .2-.8%

[/ QUOTE ]

Right.. I am sure all those multi billion dollar casinos got built by having just a quarter percent take.

Your statistics if true, would only be correct if a player utilized optimum strategy. Those statistics are not for everyone.

blackaces13
05-06-2004, 11:58 PM
When speaking about a house edge for a game like BJ you assume perfect basic strategy. This is pretty obvious isn't it?

Stew
05-06-2004, 11:58 PM
[ QUOTE ]
When speaking about a house edge for a game like BJ you assume perfect basic strategy. This is pretty obvious isn't it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but not to someone that dense.

Homer
05-07-2004, 12:43 AM
Right.. I am sure all those multi billion dollar casinos got built by having just a quarter percent take.

I was referring to the house advantage for a basic strategy player.

Your statistics if true, would only be correct if a player utilized optimum strategy. Those statistics are not for everyone.

There are many suckers out there, who give the house a much greater advantage than .25%, but there are also smart players who prefer to minimize the house edge. These are the players BonusWhores is attempting to cater to. The original poster was questioning the expectation listed on that website, which is based on a person utilizing basic strategy.

I'm not really looking to start a posting war tonight, so I will concede that I could have been thrown in the words basic strategy to stop there from being any possible confusion.

-- Homer

umdpoker
05-07-2004, 01:18 AM
i understood that you meant with perfect basic strategy. i just didn't realize that their advantage was that low. also, i think firepay will let me use them. so, hopefully i will be casino whoring in no time. its too bad that they charge fees though. neteller was so awesome. did i mention that i hate maryland?

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:18 AM
SWEET. I REALLY NEED A BREAK FROM THE BAD BEATS THAT HAVE BEEN KILLING ME LATELY. HOW DO I TRANSFER MONEY TO THEM THOUGH? I LIVE IN MD, SO MY NETELLER ACCOUNT WAS CLOSED (I HATE MD) WHAT IS THE FASTEST WAY TO GET MONEY THERE AND BACK?

Click2Pay
Firepay
PrepaidATM
Citadel

I'm sure one of these will work, though I do not know which is fastest.

Webster
05-07-2004, 07:22 AM
Actually even the WORST BJ players are not that bad off "IN THE SHORT RUN".

moondogg
05-07-2004, 07:34 AM
Jek/Homer,

Cool site. I didn't seriously consider giving BJ whoring a change until I saw your site.

I did lucky nugget yesterday, and I have two questions:
1- Made the changes you guys suggest to the autoplay feature, and I burned through over $100 chasing the $200 bonus. Is this expected, is this a bad run, or do I probably have strategy wrong?
2- The site tracks the # of hands played, but that is not the amount actually wagered, when you consider splits and double downs. Is there a standard 1.XX multiplier I can use for estimating how much I've wagered based on a number of hands played?

Thanks

Simon Diamond
05-07-2004, 07:57 AM
Actually even the WORST BJ players are not that bad off "IN THE SHORT RUN".

I think I fall into that category... according to my ex-girlfriend at least.

Simon

Homer
05-07-2004, 12:25 PM
1- Made the changes you guys suggest to the autoplay feature, and I burned through over $100 chasing the $200 bonus. Is this expected, is this a bad run, or do I probably have strategy wrong?

Just to clarify:

You deposited $50, got the $200 bonus, then lost $100 of the bonus from playing 5000 $1 hands, leaving you with $150 overall ($100 profit)?

Assuming I have things right, here is how you figure out how far off you were from the expected result:

Your expected win is $200-.0036*5000 = $182

The standard deviation (SD) for a single hand of blackjack is around 1.15 units, and for multiple hands it is 1.15*sqrt(n), where n is the number of hands played. So, for 5000 $1 hands, the SD is 1.15*sqrt(5000) = 70.71 units*$1/unit = $70.71.

Now, you want to figure out how many SD's below/above expectation your result was:

182 + 70.71*x = 100

70.71*x = -82

x = -1.16

Lastly, you can use a program like Excel to determine the probability of this result or worse. Go into cell A1 and enter <font color="blue">=normsdist(-1.16)</font>, and you will get a result of .123, or 12.3%. So, about 1 in 8 times a player will do worse than you did. In other words, you were fairly unlucky.

You can see the beauty of it, though. You had poor results, but still walked away with a $100 profit.

2- The site tracks the # of hands played, but that is not the amount actually wagered, when you consider splits and double downs. Is there a standard 1.XX multiplier I can use for estimating how much I've wagered based on a number of hands played?

You're one step ahead of us here. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

I'm currently doing some research to see if I can find a calculated value, and if not, jek or I will do a trial run of a few thousand hands using Autoplay, then find out the total amount we wagered using Playcheck. In other words, if we run 4000 hands and Playcheck says we wagered a total of $4200, we will know that the multiplier is 1.05. What we will probably do, actually, is run it for 500 hands, check, then 500 hands more, then 1000 hands, etc. This way, we will see how quickly the number converges. We don't want to run too few trials and produce a bad number.

-- Homer

Homer
05-07-2004, 12:38 PM
I just realized you were probably talking about Casino-on-Net, not Lucky Nugget.

If so, did you make 400 $1 bets and lose $100 (in other words, you have $1100 left for a $100 profit)?

Playing with basic strategy, this is a -4.28 SD event, which is insanely rare. So, it is likely that you either were using a poor strategy or were betting much more than $1/hand (I'm guessing the latter is more likely).

There is a generic basic strategy chart on the BonusWhores website, among other places, if you wish to see how closely you were playing to optimal.

-- Homer

Jesse Kidd
05-07-2004, 01:09 PM
Homer,

I just signed up through the bonuswhores website for the Lucky Nugget, and deposited my $50.00. I'm currently autoplaying the blackjack hands, however, I have a question. In the terms and conditions, it looks like Blackjack does not fill the bonus requirement, although it is worded quite strangely. Can you confirm that blackjack does indeed fill the bonus requirement once I play 5,000 hands? Thanks!

Jesse

fluff
05-07-2004, 01:12 PM
I found that for Microgaming Viper, Vegas Strip Blackjack, the amount wagered is 1.1 x $/hand x hands to account for splits and doubles.

So for instance 1000 hands at $2,- = $2200 wagered.

In my experience the multiplier is somewhere between 1.1 and 1.15, but 1.1 is a good conservative estimate.

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:15 PM
From their T&amp;C:

Players must wager an amount equal to twenty (20) times the sum of the deposit and Sign-Up Bonus amount they received before any withdrawals will be processed. This offer excludes play on the following games: Craps, Sic Bo, Baccarat, Roulette and Progressive Roulette tables, Jacks or Better Video Poker, 10 Play Jack's or Better Power Poker, and Jacks or Better Power Poker ("Minimum Deposit and Wager Requirements"). Wagers placed on these games will not be deemed as fulfilling this promotion's Minimum Deposit and Wager Requirement. However, Players resident in Poland, Israel, Denmark and China must wager an amount equal to thirty (30) times the deposit and Sign-Up Bonus amount they received before any withdrawals will be processed. In addition to the aforementioned wagering requirements, wagers placed on the following games will not be deemed as fulfilling a promotion's minimum wager requirement: All forms of Blackjack, Craps, Sic Bo, Red Dog, all forms of Baccarat, all forms of Roulette and Progressive Roulette tables, all forms of Power Poker and Video Poker except Deuces Wild

So, unless you live in Poland, Israel, Denmark or China, you'll be fine.

Also, I've personally done this promotion by playing blackjack and have been paid.

-- Homer

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:15 PM
Thanks for the info, fluff.

-- Homer

moondogg
05-07-2004, 01:16 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Just to clarify:
You deposited $50, got the $200 bonus, then lost $100 of the bonus from playing 5000 $1 hands, leaving you with $150 overall ($100 profit)?


[/ QUOTE ]

I was on Lucky Nugget, playing for $1/hand, using standard basic strategy on the AutoPlay feature.
Actually, I deposited $50, and had not yet gotten the bonus (their site said you had to play the $5000 worth of hands before getting it).
I proceeded to lose that $50 over the first 1000 hands. I cashed in another $50, and lost that around 3000 hands. I cashed in another $100, and was a little aboe $50 when I got to 4273 hands. At which point I figured I had the $5000 covered and filled out the form on their website to get the bonus. This morning the emailed me saying I had indeed satisfied the bonus, and would be receiving the money shortly. Granted, I came out ahead, but I also had swings of +/- $50 in addition to a steady loss. It seems all too easy to get $300 into the hole chasing a $200 bonus. Given that nugget had the best ROI, it concerned me about going for the more risky river belle sites.

I have heard a few times "you only bet the bonus" and "you're playing with their money". Is it possible to get credited the bonus prior to meeting the requirements, assuming that you can't cash it out until you play enough hands?

Thanks

Jesse Kidd
05-07-2004, 01:17 PM
Sweet.

I didn't realize they were still referring to our Icelandic friends on that second listing of games. I appreciate the site, and it's been very helpful. I'll be happy to use your links to do my whoring /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Jesse

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:23 PM
Actually, I deposited $50, and had not yet gotten the bonus (their site said you had to play the $5000 worth of hands before getting it).

Their site must be worded awkwardly, because you are supposed to get the $200 before you have to start wagering. Did you go to the site and enter your name/e-mail/account number in order to receive the bonus?

There are very few sites at which you have to do any sort of wagering before receiving the bonus. Most of the time, at these sites, you have to wager the deposit amount once, then the bonus will be credited.

I proceeded to lose that $50 over the first 1000 hands. I cashed in another $50, and lost that around 3000 hands. I cashed in another $100, and was a little aboe $50 when I got to 4273 hands. At which point I figured I had the $5000 covered and filled out the form on their website to get the bonus. This morning the emailed me saying I had indeed satisfied the bonus, and would be receiving the money shortly. Granted, I came out ahead, but I also had swings of +/- $50 in addition to a steady loss. It seems all too easy to get $300 into the hole chasing a $200 bonus. Given that nugget had the best ROI, it concerned me about going for the more risky river belle sites.

Okay, I see what you did. In the future, fill out the form and wait for the bonus to be credited before beginning to wager. Also, I'm concerned now that they won't let you cashout, since you are supposed to play $5000 after receiving this bonus. If this happens, explain to them that you wagered $5000 and then applied for the bonus, because you thought that's what you were supposed to do based on what the website said.

Don't give up on this yet, it can be quite profitable. I would recommend that you try Gaming Club next ($150 bonus on a $150 deposit). Make the deposit, go to the site and enter your details to get the bonus, and don't begin wagering until your account balance is $300.

-- Homer

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:25 PM
I didn't realize they were still referring to our Icelandic friends on that second listing of games.

Sometimes these casino T&amp;C's aren't very clear. I had to read it two or three times before I figured out that they were still referring to seperate requirements for those particular countries.

I appreciate the site, and it's been very helpful. I'll be happy to use your links to do my whoring

Thanks, and thanks. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-- Homer

moondogg
05-07-2004, 01:31 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Their site must be worded awkwardly, because you are supposed to get the $200 before you have to start wagering. Did you go to the site and enter your name/e-mail/account number in order to receive the bonus?


[/ QUOTE ]


Logon to the Lucky Nugget software and deposit casino credits into your real account. You must deposit a minimum of $50 worth of casino credits to qualify for the 200 FREE Casino Credits Sign-up Bonus.

Once you have met the Minimum Deposit Requirement (the "Minimum Deposit Requirement"), return to this page and submit your details below within 72 hours in order to claim $200 worth of FREE casino credits!

Next I will just fill it out beforehand, regardless of what it says.

Thanks again

Homer
05-07-2004, 01:39 PM
Once you have met the Minimum Deposit Requirement (the "Minimum Deposit Requirement"), return to this page and submit your details below within 72 hours in order to claim $200 worth of FREE casino credits!

Notice it says Minimum Deposit Requirement, not Minimum Wagering Requirement. In other words, they should have just said:

Once you have deposited at least $50, return to this page and submit your details below within 72 hours in order to claim $200 worth of FREE casino credits!

-- Homer

moondogg
05-07-2004, 01:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Once you have met the Minimum Deposit Requirement (the "Minimum Deposit Requirement"), return to this page and submit your details below within 72 hours in order to claim $200 worth of FREE casino credits!

Notice it says Minimum Deposit Requirement, not Minimum Wagering Requirement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, reading's a pain in the ass. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Adde
05-07-2004, 06:57 PM
Also, I've personally done this promotion by playing blackjack and have been paid.

Homer,

T&amp;C are nothing but static, and can/will change from time to time. IMO, there's no substitute for reading the T&amp;C before you consider a bonus, and then again before you start playing it. I think you should aim more on teaching people how to understand T&amp;C, cause that's the hard part of playing casino bonuses.

Adde