AA with KK on the board

[Vazh]

I was looking at this hand and initially thought calling down after the turn raise was ok, but thinking about it more I think it was very wrong. The reason is that I think I'm behind and drawing to 2 outs 99% of the time.

Here's why: Unless opponent is a total LAG, which he is not, there's not a huge range of hands he'd raise/cap with. Let's say AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQs. I'm ahead of QQ, JJ and AQs. But I 3-bet pf, and bet out on the flop and turn, so he must respect my hand at least a little. If he has AA, QQ, JJ, or AQs I would argue that he's afraid I have AK, and there's no way he makes this turn raise. He doesn't appear to be afraid of getting 3-bet, so he's pretty much got to have the goods.


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (8 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, <font color="CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.25 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 12.25 BB, between MP1 and Hero.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by MP1 (12.25 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP1 shows Kc Ad (three of a kind, kings).
Hero shows Ah As (two pair, aces and kings).
Outcome: MP1 wins 12.25 BB. </font>

[DoctorDrew]

Nicely played by villan. And a fortunate board. He checks the flop and calls. The next card is another heart. Now he has no way of knowing you have the Ace hearts. So, his check raise could be construed as AhQh playing the flush draw. Of course he planned on check raising all the time. Now, when the heart didn't fall on the river and he bets out, you have to pause and realize you have probably been had. But, it would take a really good read to fold here.

Of course I am probably giving villan too much credit. He is probably the typical player who read somewhere to slowplay trips on the flop. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[James Boston]

[ QUOTE ]
But, it would take a really good read to fold here.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it has to be that great. Villan raised pre-flop, and waiting to raise the turn with a strong hand is not uncommon. AK, KQ, KJ, could all be possible. Of course there are other possibilities, but I'd let it go.