Overpair out of position

[davidross]

Playing a $20 NL qualifier to a WSOP qualifier. Very early, blinds are still 10/15. I have 1245 because the guy in seat 1 called 2 pot sized bets on an early hand with A high and a 9 kicker.

In this hand I open raise to 45 with JJ and seat 1(960) calls me again. BB calls 30 too.

FLop comes 6d 5c 3c. BB bets 15 and I raise it to 150. Seat 1 calls and BB folds.

Turn is 8h. How do you proceed from here?

[nolanfan34]

Based on your previous read of Seat 1, I'd probably bet out against him again. Sounds like they have either overcards to the flop, or more likely are on a flush draw IMO. Or A6 perhaps since they've shown they'll play Ax.

I usually make the mistake of slowing down and checking here, and then never know what to do when someone bets into me. Bet it out and if you get raised you can slow down and reevaluate.

[ZootMurph]

You really have to bet out. The weak T45 raise could leave some chaff in the hand, but you shouldn't have anything to be afraid of but draws. I call the T45 raise weak because, with so many weak players who don't understand the game in these qualifiers, a 3x bet is not a 3x bet, but a small T45 bet (out of T1000 chips they have). If you understand what I mean.

Anyway, a free card would be an absolute disaster with a straight and flush draw on the board. I personally would bet out here T265, taking him down to T500 if he calls. If you bet much lower, you invite a call. If you make a pot sized bet or more, you are throwing too many chips in to a player who could be playing the hand with almost anything.

If he calls the T265 bet, put him all in on the river unless another straight card, flush card, or Ace hits. If any of those hit, give him a chance to fold with a T100-T150 bet.

[SossMan]

I would go ahead and push. If he made a wacky staight or two pair, that sucks....but this board is draw-licious, and I want him to pay to hit his gutshot or club or overcard kicker. Too scary a board to risk a check raise, and too good a pot (T460) to not take right now.

[UMTerp]

Do you call if he raises you all-in here? If so, why not just push yourself?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you call if he raises you all-in here? If so, why not just push yourself?

[/ QUOTE ]

My thoughts exactly.

[DKNY]

I would make another pot size bet.

[Kaz The Original]

The reason to bet pot rather than to push is to allow him to draw with incorrect odds.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Bet again. Given the stack size you have and the size of the pot, probably just pushing all in would be best. Don't let magoo-boy draw cheap, cuz you probably have the best hand. If you get beat, well then you get beat. But don't let it be because you played like a wimp.

al

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Many of the drawing hands he might have will have proper odds to call a pot-size bet. Flush draw + 2 overcards, Flush draw + inside straight + 1 overcard, etc.

In fact, if he holds Ac 7c, he has proper (though thin) odds to call if David puts him all-in.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I think your only reasonable play here is to push in, since almost every flush draw he could have looks like it would have additional outs to beat you. He can't bust you. Might as well make him pay to play.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason to bet pot rather than to push is to allow him to draw with incorrect odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he bets the pot (T460), and pays off when a flush hits (which he kinda has to), his opponent ISN'T getting incorrect (implied) odds to continue with a flush draw (especially if he has an overcard or one card gutshot to go with it).
Many players will make the mistake of calling with a flush draw here whether its all in or pot sized, anyway. So, may as well push and get it in when we are (presumably) ahead.

[davidross]

I'm glad to hear I wasn't far off from what everyone else thought. I bet the pot and he pushed all-in. Cost me another $320 which would leave me 280 or so, pot is now around 1700, and I figured I had to call this guy.

He had 66 and had flopped a set.

We hooked up again a few hands later and i doubled through him with QQ against AK, but JJ did me in again a little later when K3s called my big raisse and hit the flop.

I don't imagine there is any way to survive when you run into sets with your overpair, although if my turn bet had been smaller, I might have been able to fold.