A7 os on the bubble. fold or raise?

[PAUL-IN]

30+3 UB SNG, 4 players left, folded to me on the button with A7.
SB is bigstack with about 4500, BB is mid stack with about 2100, and is an absolute rammerjammer.
i have 1900 and blinds are 100-200. what to do?

[Chief911]

Oddly, I like to call here. Unless by rammer jammer means he's an automatic raise to anyone limping into him.

Maybe its the wrong play, I'm no grizzled veteran. But I like to call and see the flop, and play from there.

Chief911

[aces_full]

The important question here is how many chips does the 4th player have? Right now he's UTG, which means he will be in the BB and forced to commit 200 on the very next hand. If the fourth player had say 800 chips or less, personally I would fold and either wait him out or wait for a spot where I have a legitimate playable hand.

This really is a tough spot to be in. You are on the bubble, and unfortunately both players have you covered. If you just call 200 I really wouldn't be surprised to see either the SB or BB raise it up. At that point you are put to a tough decision. Does he have a hand better than A7 or is he trying to steal? It's a tough call. You could be beat two ways. You already may be behind, or you could be outdrawn.

At this stage of the tournament if you are entering the pot, you really should come in for a raise. Since both of your opponents already have money committed to the pot, it would seem like you need to raise at least to 600 to get the BB to fold. It all comes back to the SB though. He's got you covered by double. Even if you went all in, and doubled up on him, he can still probably slide into the money. If you raised 600 I'm pretty sure he would call with any two cards. At least that has been my experience. It seems like any time I raise into the big stack with a hand that I am a favorite with, they will always call, and usually suck out on me and I'm finished. If the SB called, I doubt the BB would call as well unless he had a hand.

But assuming you raise and get called, what do you do on the flop? Unless the flop hits you perfectly like A7x or 77x, how can you know where you stand? Especially if the SB is the kind of player who will play any two cards if he's got you covered.

In this hand even though he's UTG on later rounds, he has the postitonal advantage. No matter what the flop is, he could lead out with a substantial bet. Unless you got a perfect flop, all your chips are now at risk.

The more I think about it, I would probably just pass on this hand, unless you know the SB to be a tight player who would only call your raise with a legitimate hand. Depending on the type of player he is, there's a chance he might even raise back at you before the flop, then what do you do? Another thing to consider is that you are in no danger of being blinded out any time soon, so you don't need to play a pot. I'm no tournament expert, but to me it's a clear fold. I have been in this situation before, even with legitimate hands like KK, and trust me, it never works out /images/graemlins/frown.gif. I end up getting my hand cracked and end up busted out or pretty close to it.

By passing on this hand, you might be able to slide into the money without winning a pot. Let the SB and the BB fight it out. You are really rooting for them both to play the pot and for the SB to break, or at least cripple the BB, thereby assuring you a money finish just by sitting back.

Now if it were down to three and I was already guaranteed 3rd place, I would move all-in right here with the A7.