HOF Shoe Ins

[Chris Daddy Cool]

With all this talk about HOF, here in my opinion are shoo ins (or ought to be) who are currently playing.

Bonds
Clemens
Maddux
Rickey Henderson
Bagwell
Biggio (he should, but probably won't)
Roberto Alomar
Randy Johnson
Griffey
Palmiero
Sosa
Piazza

Am I missing anybody?

On the fence
A-Rod (a couple more A-Rod years and he's in)
Glavine
Pedro (a couple more Pedro years and he's in)
Edgar Martinez
Frank Thomas
Mariano Rivera

Not quite...
Sheffield
McGriff
Schilling
Smoltz
Mussina
Jeff Kent

All of this was on the top of my head...
Also note all of this is would they make the HOF if their careers ended right NOW. So nevermind the potential young studs.
Any comments?

[ThaSaltCracka]

there is no way that Bagwell or Biggio are locks.
Alomar should be a lock, but he has had a few bad years as of late, which might be a problem.
Palmiero is not a lock either.
1st base is to deep a posistion for Bagwell or Palmiero to be shoo ins.

A-Rod and Pedro are shoo ins and I think Smoltz and Rivera might be locks as well.

everyone else you listed is on the fence.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

What about Smoltz makes him a shoo in? He's won one Cy Young, but has only 163 wins. He's won more than 15 games in a season just twice. His recent conversion to a closer has been a great story, but we're not talking about Eckersly here. Smoltz only has 113 or so saves. Had he not been riddled with injuries, his numbers would look better, but not that much better.
Rivera I might understand for his post season success.

I agree that 1rst base is a deep position, but Bagwell is one of the top 6 or so first basemen of ALL TIME. If that doesn't warrant the HOF I don't know what does.
A couple of years ago I didn't think Palmeiro was going to get in, but he's been remarkably consistant and his numbers speak for themselves. Is he better than Bagwell? No, but he doesn't need to be with 500+ HR and closing in on 3000 hits.

Before Barry Bonds' historic 2001, he was the most underappreciated player in baseball. A close second though, was Craig Biggio. His numbers were seriously marred (like Bagwell) by playing a majority of his career in a pitchers park (The Astrodome) and he's quietly been one of the best all around players in the game for the past decade.

[sam h]

Biggio will be an interesting case. I think he gets helped in the end by his Bill James poster boy status. I imagine he gets in, but not on the first ballot and only after a groundswell of argument from statistical analysts.

Edgar Martinez will also be interesting. He should be an easy shoo-in in my opinion, but dumb people will oppose his inclusion as a DH.

Pedro gets in even if he retires tomorrow and its not close. He has been the best pitcher in baseball for some time, and his peak is absurdly dominant in the context of the offensively oriented times. His name is in the conversation about greatest pitchers of all time.

Kent is clearly fading. But if he puts up two or three more decent seasons, I think his credentials are pretty good as a second baseman.

Personally, I think Thomas and Rivera also are easily worthy of induction. Thomas was the best hitter in baseball during his peak and has not been a slouch since. Rivera is arguably the best relief pitcher ever and his ungodly postseason record has to count for something.

[Mano]

Palmeiro (probably a lock - 2800+ hits 530+ HR's)

A couple of guys who are probably close:
Jeter
Nomar
IRod
Larkin?
Franco?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
What about Smoltz makes him a shoo in? He's won one Cy Young, but has only 163 wins. He's won more than 15 games in a season just twice. His recent conversion to a closer has been a great story, but we're not talking about Eckersly here. Smoltz only has 113 or so saves. Had he not been riddled with injuries, his numbers would look better, but not that much better.
Rivera I might understand for his post season success.


[/ QUOTE ]
Rivera is a lock without question, he has been phenomenal. Maybe not Smoltz, but I still think he will get in.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that 1rst base is a deep position, but Bagwell is one of the top 6 or so first basemen of ALL TIME. If that doesn't warrant the HOF I don't know what does.

[/ QUOTE ]
your serious??
heres my list of 1B's better than Bagwell, all time, and these are in no particular order.
Lou Gehrig
Jimmie Foxx
Hank Greenburg
Orlando Cepeda
Willie McCovey
Eddie Murray
Harmon Killebrew
Mark McGwire
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmiero

[ QUOTE ]
Before Barry Bonds' historic 2001, he was the most underappreciated player in baseball. A close second though, was Craig Biggio. His numbers were seriously marred (like Bagwell) by playing a majority of his career in a pitchers park (The Astrodome) and he's quietly been one of the best all around players in the game for the past decade.

[/ QUOTE ]
Seriously get off Biggio's sack, he is not that good, nor was he ever that great. He is a solid player, he is consistent, but he played a weak posistion in the NL for a long time, so maybe thats why he stands out to you. I am sorry but Biggio is not a lock. If he makes it in, it will be many years after the first ballot.

go to the halls web page and look at some of the players there by posistion. Many of the modern day players have phenominal numbers. Take a look just of curiousity, its a pretty cool site.
The Only Hall of Fame that mattters!!!!! (http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/default.htm)

[ThaSaltCracka]

Jeter and Irod are locks

Nomar needs 2-3 more real good seasons

Larkin is doubtful, his numbers really aren't that good.

Franco.... no, not a chance although his longevity is pretty amazing

what about Juan Gonzalez??????

[B-Man]

Pedro could retire tommorow and sail into the HOF. Check his lifetime ERA, winning percentage, WHIP, the 3 Cy Youngs, and the 5 ERA titles. As another poster said, he has been ridiculously dominant in an era dominated by hitters.

As for Jeff Kent, why is he on your list? He's not even close to Hall of Fame material.

[Ed Miller]

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Whoops completely forgot about IRod. He's a lock, IMO. I seriously underconsidered Pedro's case. He's a lock too.

Larkin, I think, has a serious case. He was the best SS in the NL for a very long time. Speaking of SS, Nomar has to play a little longer to get in.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

In order.

1. Gehrig
2. Foxx
3. Greenburg
4. Bagwell
5. Killebrew
6. McGwire

I have a personal attachment to Murray, who's never been spectacular, but longevity and consistency made him great. But if you're talking purely peak, Bagwell was better.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I never said Kent was in. I said he was good, but not quite good enough.

But, find me a 2B not named Biggio or Alomar who's been as good as Kent the past six or seven years.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
But, find me a 2B not named Biggio or Alomar who's been as good as Kent the past six or seven years.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a far cry from being HOF material.

I agree Kent has been "good." He's been among the top second basemen over a short period. But he's not close to HOF material, and never will be.

[B-Man]

Actually, Pedro is significantly better than Koufax.

Pedro's lifetime ERA is 2.58, and the league ERA for his career is 4.50.

Koufax' career ERA is 2.76, and the league ERA for his career is 3.63.

Pedro's ERA is better on an absolute scale, but when you consider the context, it is not even close.

Pedro also has a better winning percentage, better WHIP, more strikeouts per nine innings, and fewer walks.

[M2d]

I haven't done this, but I know that Koufax's era sucked his first few years. He was only at the peak for a short time, but he got in the hall based on how high that peak was. imo, in that stretch, no one has come close to him.

[andyfox]

I add McGriff, Thomas, A-Rod, Pedro and Franco (yes Franco [John, not Matt]) on my list of people I would vote in right now if their careers came to an immediate end, in addition to those you list.

If Rivera's on the fence, and I don't think he's quite there yet, then Trevor Hoffman should be too.

[BeerMoney]

If you are talking about shoo ins, and are debating whether or not biggio is, than he obviously is not!

As for possible HOFERS, what about Larry Walker and Ichiro? I realize Ichiro hasn't been around that long, but if he continues, he will go down as one of the great ball players. He can run, hit and field. He is nasty.

Look Drunk, Play Drunk
BeerMoney

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't done this, but I know that Koufax's era sucked his first few years. He was only at the peak for a short time, but he got in the hall based on how high that peak was. imo, in that stretch, no one has come close to him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with everything except your last sentence.

Pedro in 1999-2000 was better than any 2-year stretch for Koufax (or anyone else, for that matter). Koufax had more wins because of the 4-man rotation, but all of the other numbers favor Pedro.

example:

In 1999, the league ERA was 5.07, Pedro had a 2.07.
In 2000, the league ERA was 4.97, Pedro had a 1.74.

That's just ridiculous (he earned back-to-back unanimous Cy Young awards).

Koufax had back-to-back seasons just under 2.00, but the league ERA was barely over 3.00 in those years. He was the best, but not by nearly the margin by which Pedro was the best over his peers. In 1999, the second-best ERA was 3.44 (David Cone), and in 2000 it was 3.70 (Clemens)--Pedro was nearly two runs per game lower than his closest competitor!

I am not maligning Koufax--he was a great, great pitcher. It's just that over a short period, Pedro is probably the most dominating pitcher ever. He'll never have the longevity of a Clemens, but boy was he something at his peak.

[B-Man]

Ichiro has played 3 seasons. He's been very good, but he's got A LONG WAY to go, and he's 30 this year.

[B-Man]

He needs to continue, but what a tear he's been on the last 5-6 years.

[andyfox]

Don't you think that today's more sophisticated HOF voters will downgrade his numbers because of the ballpark? I mean, Larry Walker hit over .360 for three straight years. Vinny Castilla had something like 42 104 .303 in consecutive years and then improved his third year. He left and gave evidence thereafter that he couldn't hit major league pitching.

[andyfox]

Hopefully, when his eligibility comes around, none of the eligible voters will have seen him play left field (or third base for that matter). A consistently accomplished hitter though.

[andyfox]

My guess is that, one day, they'll start voting in players from the Japenese baseball leagues, especially guys who came over here after a number of good years in Japan.

One person I don't think anybody's mentioned is Joe Torre. My guess is he eventually makes it, combining his pretty good playing career, with his managerial career, and the general good feelings people seem to have about him as a classy guy (whether or not that assessment is accurate). People also forget he was very instrumental in the early days of the players' union as well.

I would think Bobby Cox and Tony Larussa are other active managers that will make it. Perhaps Duty Baker eventually. If memory serves, LaRussa, an attorney, wanted to be Marvin Miller, and turned to managing only when his efforts to get involved in the players' union were rebuffed.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think that today's more sophisticated HOF voters will downgrade his numbers because of the ballpark? I mean, Larry Walker hit over .360 for three straight years. Vinny Castilla had something like 42 104 .303 in consecutive years and then improved his third year. He left and gave evidence thereafter that he couldn't hit major league pitching.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think they'll be discounted, but if he plays his whole career in Colorado and keeps up his pace, he'll be tough to ignore.

Also, he's not the first player to get a big benefit from his home park (Wade Boggs, for example), though the Colorado effect is much stronger than the effect of any other park.

[B-Man]

I didn't think of him, but he's been consistently excellent. Great OPS, and 8 consecutive years with over 100 RBIs. MVP, too.

Yep, Chipper has a great chance to make it someday.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I am laughing as I read everyones posts. You guys are suggesting that just about every player who makes an all star team is in. Seriously think about which players are in the HOF and how many. Remember, only two made it in this year. Molitor and (I can't recall the other, Yount?), anyways my point is, you have to be probably the best at your posisition or atleast top 3 in your posistion (during your era) for your entire career to make it in the HOF. Some of the players you guys have listed probably don't have a chance, like Biggio or Kent. Alomar has a good chance, but those other guys, very doubtful. Chipper is doubtful as well.

[ThaSaltCracka]

In order.
1. Gehrig
2. Foxx
3. Greenburg
4. Bagwell <------- Wow, this high???
5. Killebrew
6. McGwire

well I dunno Chris, like I said Bagwell is good, but I don't think he is a lock, I think 2-3 more seasons from him with 25+hr's, 100 rbis, and .300 avg, then yeah he is probably a lock.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
I am laughing as I read everyones posts. You guys are suggesting that just about every player who makes an all star team is in. Seriously think about which players are in the HOF and how many. Remember, only two made it in this year. Molitor and (I can't recall the other, Yount?), anyways my point is, you have to be probably the best at your posisition or atleast top 3 in your posistion (during your era) for your entire career to make it in the HOF. Some of the players you guys have listed probably don't have a chance, like Biggio or Kent. Alomar has a good chance, but those other guys, very doubtful. Chipper is doubtful as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree in part--I was the one who said Kent is not even close to HOF status, I think it's ridiculous that he was listed at all.

I disagree on Chipper, though--check out his numbers. He's been consistently excellent for 8 years. How many other players had over 100 RBIs 8 years in a row? He also has an MVP, and his OPS is outstanding. He needs to keep this up for a while, but if he does, he's got a good shot.

No, not every player is going to make it, and I think a lot of the players that have been mentioned wont make it. BUT, part of the discussion is based on the assumption that these players play a number of additional years at the same level they have performed in the past, which we know wont happen in the majority of cases. Players like Bonds and Clemens, who excel until their late 30s/40s, are rare. Same goes for Molitor and Yount.

Nomar is far better to this point in his career than Molitor or Yount, and a little better than Cal Ripken, Jr. Does that mean he is a shoo-in? Of course not. But if he has another 6 years like his first 6 years, he'll have a very good shot.

[andyfox]

I glanced through (but didn't buy) Allen Barra's new book; his lead article seemed to be saying more or less what you are, that today's "great" players aren't all that great.

Having said that, the HOF is filled with players, mostly selected by the veterans committees, that aren't anywhere near as qualified to be there as, say, Biggio or Alomar.
Lloyd Waner, Tony Perez, Phil Rizzuto and Tony Perez come immediately to mind.

Maybe we need to clarify whether we're suggesting a certain player deserves to make or if we think he will make it.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Lloyd Waner, Tony Perez, Phil Rizzuto and Tony Perez come immediately to mind.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Tony Perez is in there twice, then Jim Rice should definitely be in! /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Seriously, Phil Rizzuto being in the HOF is a joke. I also checked on Waner's stats, since you mentioned him, and he shouldn't be in there, either.

[paland]

One HOF shoo-in has to be Jake Grifter. The guy is just consistent year in and year out. Much better than the others listed at his position.

[B-Man]

Locks:

Bonds
Clemens
Rickey Henderson
Maddux
Pedro
Randy Johnson
Griffey, Jr.
A-Rod

"Maybes":

Alomar
Sosa
Piazza
Glavine
Palmiero

On pace, but need to keep it up for a while:

Pujols (a lot more time!)
Nomar
Manny (also needs a lot more time because so many good OF)
Jeter (because of the rings and his team, not his stats)
Rivera

Doubtful:

Schilling

"Why were they even mentioned in this discussion?":

Kent
Mussina
Sheffield

[Mano]

Based on stats, particularly HR's, Canseco has better numbers than some already in, and he was considered the top slugger in the game for a few years. I doubt he'll make it due to his off field shennanigans and cocky/jerky reputation.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Again, I'd like to point out I never advocated Kent into the HOF, I just wanted to point out that he's had a great career and arguably the top 2 2B the past 4 or 5 years.

Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time. That's a lock IMO.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
It's just that over a short period, Pedro is probably the most dominating pitcher ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

How about Gibson?

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on stats, particularly HR's, Canseco has better numbers than some already in, and he was considered the top slugger in the game for a few years. I doubt he'll make it due to his off field shennanigans and cocky/jerky reputation.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has not shot, and he'll take over (at least for a while) the lead for most home runs/eligible for HOF/not in HOF.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
anyways my point is, you have to be probably the best at your posisition or atleast top 3 in your posistion (during your era) for your entire career to make it in the HOF. Some of the players you guys have listed probably don't have a chance, like Biggio...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, during Biggio's era, name me 3 2B that were better.

And for that matter 2 1B better than Bagwell.

Also all this talk about Chipper... His numbers aren't that great, steller no doubt, but compare that to other OF in the game,he doesn't stand out. If he was still a 3B and continued to put up numbers that'd be a different story.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
How about Gibson?

[/ QUOTE ]

I never saw him pitch. His 1968 season looks comparable to Pedro's 2000 season, though not quite as dominating compared to the rest of the league. However, his 1967 and 1969 seasons are not nearly as dominating, relatively speaking, as Pedro's 1999 season, so I would still go with Pedro in 1999-2000 as the most dominating 2-year stretch.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, during Biggio's era, name me 3 2B that were better.

And for that matter 2 1B better than Bagwell.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being one of the top 3 at your position for a number of years doesn't guaranty entry into the HOF. Jim Rice was the best hitter in baseball for a 10-year stretch, and he hasn't been elected (and time is running out for him).

As for Bagwell, you could argue McGwire, Palmiero and Frank Thomas were all better. I'm not saying they are (I haven't really thought about it or studied the stats), but based on a quick look at the numbers, you could certainly make a case that all 3 have been better than Bagwell.

[Nick B.]

[ QUOTE ]
I am laughing as I read everyones posts. You guys are suggesting that just about every player who makes an all star team is in. Seriously think about which players are in the HOF and how many. Remember, only two made it in this year. Molitor and (I can't recall the other, Yount?), anyways my point is, you have to be probably the best at your posisition or atleast top 3 in your posistion (during your era) for your entire career to make it in the HOF. Some of the players you guys have listed probably don't have a chance, like Biggio or Kent. Alomar has a good chance, but those other guys, very doubtful. Chipper is doubtful as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking the same thing.

[ThaSaltCracka]

okay let me change what I said. You have to be the best player at your posistion during your era to be a lock for the HOF, being one of the best still gives you a good shot, but definitely not a lock. Remember, the electing process is a bit a of a political one. Usually the bigger names have a better shot than the less popular.

Bagwell will be trumped by one name, McGwire, for his era, his numbers might not be as good, but McGwire has a better shot. If a player like Palmiero isn't a lock, then there is no way Bagwell can be a lock, the numbers are simply to close.

Also, don't think for a minute that the offense production of todays players won't be taken into consideration. Clearly offensive production is higher than it was 15 years ago, so don't assume big offensive numbers will get them in easily.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time. That's a lock IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think I-Rod is a better hitter, but thats not my point, do you think I-Rod is a lock?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[Ed Miller]

Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time. That's a lock IMO.

I would be damn surprised if any one of his "maybes" isn't in the hall in ten years.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

Yes. I do.

Just imagine... a catcher with Piazza's hitting and I-Rod's defense. Might be one of the greatest players of all time, no?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, don't think for a minute that the offense production of todays players won't be taken into consideration. Clearly offensive production is higher than it was 15 years ago, so don't assume big offensive numbers will get them in easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

On that note, Bagwell's numbers were hurt by playing most of his career in one of the toughest hitter's parks in baseball, the Astrodome. The same reasoning, or so they say, has kept Jim Rice out of the HOF because he played his games in hitter friendly parks.

[ThaSaltCracka]

well Bagwell now plays in absurd hitter friendly park so keep that in mind too.

[J.Brown]

As a long time Braves fan maybe I am biased, but......do you think Chipper was bad at 3rd?

I haven't been in love with his left fielding abilites, but I would love to hear a rundown of his short comings at the third bag.

I think he should be in the Hall with another 10 years of production like he has had.

By the way I have a great John Smoltz/blackjack at the Mirage/3 A.M./father-son-dealer idiot fest/question and answer session, that is quite entertaining and will post if there is any interest shown. cheers. J.Brown

[andyfox]

When they got Vinny Castilla, they moved him to left field. I don't think they would have done that if they felt he was a premier third baseman.

[andyfox]

Biggio will be a 1st ballot HOFer. And should be.

If Jones has 4 more years like his last 8, and then 2 at only 2/3 efficiency he will have 2,552 hits, 1552 runs, 448 home runs, 1,513 RBIs (including 12 consecutive seasons of 100 or more) and a lifetime batting average of over .300.
I think those numbers, plus all the post-season play, would get him in.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Biggio will be a 1st ballot HOFer. And should be.


[/ QUOTE ]
okay, first of all only half of the 2B elected to the hall were elected by the baseball writers association. The rest were elected by the veterans commitee.
The list of players who were elected by the Baseball writers are:
Rod Carew
Eddie Collins
Frankie Frisch
Charlie Gehringer
Rogers Hornsby
Nap Lajoie
Joe Morgan
Jackie Robinson

If you want to compare Biggios numbers to those guys go ahead, but rememer HR's meant less back in the day, it was all about average. here's the link: 2B HOF'ers (http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_and_honorees/lists/pos&2B.htm)
Now if you think Biggio is in that group, more power to you, but I think Alomar is the only 2B in the past 15 years who has a chance.

[Jim Kuhn]

Biggio will not make the hall of fame, not first ballot, not ever. Chipper may if he can produce well for several more years.

[Jim Kuhn]

[ QUOTE ]
Palmiero is not a lock either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Palmiero is a lock now and will be a first ballot hall of famer.

[B-Man]

McGwire is a lock, in part for breaking the home run record, and in part because he is already retired and will be up for election before Bagwell, Thomas, etc.

I think some people may be failing to take into account the logjam at 1B. Here are the 1B from the 90s that have HOF aspirations:

McGwire (lock, IMO)
Palmiero
Thomas
Bagwell
McGriff

There's no way they are all going to make it (at least I don't think they will). Players will be compared with other players from their own era. Sure, they all have numbers worthy of election based on past 1B, but the offensive explosion of the 90s will be taken into account by the voters (i.e. 400 home runs doesn't mean anything close to what it used to mean, especially for a 1B/OF).

I just don't see all of these guys making it. I don't know who will get in (other than McGwire) and who will be left out, but it certainly will be interesting to see what they do the rest of their careers.

[CCass]

These guys are all in if they never play another game:

P - Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez
C - Piazza, IRod
1B - Thomas, Palmiero
2B - Alomar
SS - none
3B - none
OF - Griffey, Bonds, Sosa

I did not include Henderson or McGriff because they aren't on a ML roster. Henderson is a lock, but I am afraid McGriff will get the shaft.

An interesting site to look at is baseball-reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com)

[B-Man]

I don't think Palmiero and Thomas are locks, and when McGriff doesn't make it, he wont be getting any shaft.

Palmiero has excellent totals, but he was never one of the top players in the game. Are you familiar with the James stat "black ink" (you get points for leading the league in major categories)? Palmiero has amassed a black ink total of 8. That's a ridiculously low number for a HOF first baseman. His grey ink (points for being in the top 10 of key categories) is excellent, which sums up the kind of player he was--always a very good hitter, but never the best, and almost never led his league in any major category.

There is too much competition at 1B, and the numbers are too skewed by the offensive era of today.

I think Palmiero may make it, but as I said in another post, there is no way McGwire, Palmiero, Thomas, Bagwell and McGriff all get in. McGwire is a lock; it's a tough call right now on who will make it from the rest of that group.

[adios]

If consistency means anything Palmiero with 531 career homers and a decent shot at 3000 hits is a lock.

[B-Man]

[ QUOTE ]
If consistency means anything Palmiero with 531 career homers and a decent shot at 3000 hits is a lock.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's also arguably the 4th or 5th best first baseman of his era.

I think he'll probably get in because totals are given so much weight, but I'm not sure he deserves it if you compare him to his peers.

[Sooga]

I've said it before, and I'll say it 100 times, if Frank Thomas isn't a HOFer, then I don't know what who is. His numbers are just flat out monstrous.

People say he's fallen off, but I don't see it. He missed virtually all of 2001, and in '99 and '02 he had OPS's of .885 and .833, respectively. Now, if those are your WORST years, then you're probably a pretty ridiculously good player. From '91 to '97, he put up MVP numbers every single year. Hell, he put up Ted Williams numbers every single year. And since then, his 2000 and 2003 numbers were awesome as well. And what do you know, in 2004 his OPS is over 1.000 so far. Do you realize this guy right now has the 10th highest OPS and OBP of all-time? Most of the guys ahead of him are lefties, too. Sure, the 90's were an offensive era, but c'mon. It is what it is.

People will knock his defense, and I'll concede it's downright horrible, but name me 5 right handed power-hitters in the history of the game, and Thomas's numbers will match up favorably with all of them, even adjusting for era, ballpark, whatever. He could retire tomorrow and I would consider him to be not only one of the best right handed hitters of all time, but one of the best hitters, period. This guy is a HOFer, no question.

[B-Man]

Look, Thomas is a great player, I just don't think he's a lock for the HOF right now. If he retired today, maybe he would make it, maybe he wouldn't.

His numbers are great, no question. His OPS is outstanding, but 4 of the top 10 and 8 of the top 14 career in OPS played in the 1990s and 2000s; the game has changed, there is a lot more offense now, and Thomas' numbers have to be put in perspective--you can't just compare him to players of the past, you have to compare him to players of his own era.

I'll consider him a 1B even though he's played almost half his games at DH. As you said, he's a horrible fielder, but I don't think that will be held against him. However, he's in a logjam with Palmiero, Bagwell, McGriff and McGwire.

McGwire is going to make the HOF, I think we agree on that. Do we also agree that some number less than 5 first basemen from the 1990s will be elected? I find it hard to believe 5 guys at the same position will be elected from the same era (excluding pitcher and OF).

Thomas' numbers are almost identical to Bagwell. Palmiero has more home runs and RBIs than either of them, but he's also a little older. Same for McGriff.

Forced to choose, I would say Thomas was a better player than any of those guys, though it is a dead heat with Bagwell, who played a lot of years in a pitcher's park, which should be taken into account. But if Thomas quit right now, and the rest of those guys went on to hit 500+ home runs (Palmiero is already well over 500), that would not help his case.

Bottom line, I think Frank will probably end up making it, but he is not a "lock" like Bonds, Clemens and a few others.

[andyfox]

I think he's right behind that group, and better than Frisch.

In the Win Shares system developed by Bill James, he states that 400 career Win Shares means absolute enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. 300 Win Shares makes a player more likely than not to be a Hall of Famer. However, he cautions, while those standards describe the past, they are not as likely to describe the future as accurately. Players with 300 to 350 Win Shares in the past have generally gone into the Hall of Fame. In the future, they more often will not.

The Win Shares system provides a useful method of examining the body of work that a player has accumulated in his career. In the case of active players, it is interesting to see if they are on track for the Hall.
Following is a list of players, active in 2003, with over 300 Win Shares, the group that James concluded has historically gone into the Hall of Fame:

Player Win Shares
----------------- ----------
Barry Bonds 611
Rickey Henderson 535
Roger Clemens 378
Craig Biggio 377
Roberto Alomar 372
Rafael Palmeiro 363
Jeff Bagwell 363
Frank Thomas 347
Greg Maddux 347
Gary Sheffield 337
Barry Larkin 336
Fred McGriff 326
Ken Griffey, Jr. 324

[Sooga]

Agreed 100%.... I think it was Bill Simmons on ESPN a couple years back, came up with a 'tier' system for the HOF, with the first tier being the Mays, Ruths, Aarons, etc. Bonds and Clemens are tier 1 HOFers, no doubt. Thomas is absolutely not a tier 1 player. But in my mind he is absolutely a HOFer. I agree he and Bagwell are on about the same level as far as HOF candidacy goes, by which I mean I think Bagwell should also be a no-doubter. He played a lot of his career in the Astrodome, which was one of the worst hitters parks in baseball history. For the 90's though, I would put McGwire, Thomas, and Bagwell in, and to me, Palmeiro and McGriff being more borderline. McGriff being obviously more borderline than Palmeiro. They put up huge numbers, that goes without saying. But I don't know of any time that you could say that either were the best at their positions. For most of the 90's, Thomas held the 1B crown in the AL, and Bagwell in the NL.

[Jim Kuhn]

[ QUOTE ]
For most of the 90's, Thomas held the 1B crown in the AL,

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not so sure about this statement. Palmiero had 328 home runs in the 90's and 1068 RBI's. Thomas had 307 home runs in the 90's and 1040 RBI's.

I think Palmiero is the most underrated 'name player' in the game today. He could end up with over 3000 hits, 600 home runs and 2000 RBI's. He would join Hank Aaron as the only players in the history of the game to reach all three milestones. If that is not first ballot Hall of Fame I do not know how to define first ballot.

Thank you,

Jim Kuhn
Catfish4U
/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Sooga]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
For most of the 90's, Thomas held the 1B crown in the AL,

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not so sure about this statement. Palmiero had 328 home runs in the 90's and 1068 RBI's. Thomas had 307 home runs in the 90's and 1040 RBI's.

I think Palmiero is the most underrated 'name player' in the game today. He could end up with over 3000 hits, 600 home runs and 2000 RBI's. He would join Hank Aaron as the only players in the history of the game to reach all three milestones. If that is not first ballot Hall of Fame I do not know how to define first ballot.

Thank you,

Jim Kuhn
Catfish4U
/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

First ballot? Wow.... are you serious?

Raffy's certainly been excellent for many years, but while he was putting up low .900 ops's in the 90's thomas was putting up 1.000+ with regularity. Yes, Raffy's defense is far better, but you can't make up 100 points with defense. Some of the greatest players in baseball history were not inducted as first-balloters, I certainly don't think Raffy is worthy.

[bugstud]

Raffy's defense hasn't been that great. And for everyone that forgets about the strike, Thomas has 34 hr, hitting .353 with a .487(!) OBP and a 1.217 OPS (!!!!)

What hurts the Big Hurt is '98/99 where he put up .870 area ops's and missing '01 with injury. I still think he ought to be a lock, his prime is really, really high up there on productivity. Him and Griffey both are in the same category.

Just as a point, his first 8 years in the league he put up a .450 OBP with SLG after a couple years being over .600. You can count hitters like this on one hand. If he doesn't go through the divorce and the injuries, he's a mega-lock. And this is from a Sox-disliking Cubs fan.

Raffy is good too, I think he'll end up in the HOF on longevity, but his peak is nowhere near Thomas's. I'd much rather have Frank on my team, especially in their respective primes.

Have a nice day /images/graemlins/grin.gif