Monster Draw/Hand That I Can't Raise

[Festus22]

Excellent table, Sprained Ankle convention must be in town - I've never seen so many limpers in one place.

K /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif UTG. I limp, 5 more limpers, SB completes, BB checks. 8 to the flop.

Flop [Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]. SB bets, BB calls, I call, 4 callers. 7 to the turn.

Turn A /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB bets, BB folds, I call, we lose one caller, remaining 3 call.

River 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB bets, I raise, 1 fold, MP 3-bets, another fold, SB calls, I cap, both call.

Would anyone play any street different?

[Trix]

Raise the flop, raise the turn. Your hand is well hidden and your opponents are loose.

[sublime]

I would at least raise the turn. Personally I would have raised the flop also, but I am not sure if thats the correct play.

[Raiser]

I think you should start by raising the flop. If the other players are that bad, a few of them will call 2 cold and, since you have 15 outs, it would be a value raise even if only the blinds call the raise - which I don't think would happen.

[DamnRiver]

I'd probably raise the flop with 15 nut outs but I'm not sure that's the right thing to do (can someone comment on this?). When the turn hits I definitely raise (and re-raise). River play is fine.

[Rico Suave]

Hey Festus:

I would go ahead and raise the flop. You already have 2 trapped between you and the bettor, and you probably pick up a cold caller or two behind you. I think there is way more $ to gain by raising here and when you hit your hand, you are a bit disguised.

--Rico

[mikeyKay]

Id have to agree with everyone and say raise on the flop or turn...tho your read on the table suggest that maybe raising would scare out the other players? But i still think it looks like a clear raise. The pot is big enough on the turn to show some agression with a made hand and make everyone else pay. and, i like the 'sprained ankle convention' line.
-mike

[bakku]

I like raising the flop, turn, and river..but then again, maybe I just really like raising /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DoctorDrew]

I agree with the rest. I would most certainly raise the flop and absolutely raise the turn. Otherwise I would have played it exactly the same. But that is me and I DO like raising.

[Festus22]

I'm glad I posted this because I thought this was a "more is less" hand. I kept calling with a potential army of overcallers yet to act and my thinking was not to run them off. It's interesting that it's unanimous against this play here.

As a general question, what situations are you looking to get overcallers versus just going ahead and raising with a big hand and/or big draw?

[Raiser]

I'm definitely not very advanced in my poker life, but for me, the only time I start thinking overcallers vs. raising is when I have a made hand that I'm pretty sure I will win the pot with. Most of the times this happens on the turn or river.

I guess once I've got 2 or 3 callers in the pot on a 4 flush, I start raising. Same with an OESD.

[DoctorDrew]

I am no expert. I tend to play these based on the board. If the flop or turn is such that it probably won't get much action, I play it to bring the callers along. When the flop looks like this (i.e., many hands that fish will swim with) then I play it like I have the nuts (hiding nothing) because if you bet it, they will call.

[afk]

I'm jumping on the raise boat here. If they truly have sprained ankles they aren't going anywhere and you'll make a whack of money off this draw.

[easypete]

I don't know how the table is playing.... from your comments I would say the table has been fairly loose all night.... If this is the case, raise flop, raise turn, raise river. Raise, raise, raise.

If however, the table has been fairly loose pf, and getting tighter on the flop (many folding to flop bet), then I think the call on the flop (with potential to raise) is best. If you eliminate half the table on the flop, you will make much less on the turn and river. With that said, I think you still should raise the turn. With a loose table a LPP will be more willing to put in an extra bet on the turn to make that dream draw on the river than call the raise on the river.

I think we all run into this situation more than a few times a week. I noticed that I do win more playing aggressive with my draws in later positions, but I also notice that raising a bet from a blind when I'm UTG does tend to make later players fold. I would definately bet it if the blind doesn't, but raising in this position is questionable. If it happens a few times in a short period of time, it also tightens up the table pf if they know they are going to get raise on the flop.

[StellarWind]

Let me make it a little less unanimous. Raising the flop is bad.

You will win this pot approximately half the time. That means you gain about 1/2 SB for every additional flop bet you can draw into the pot. By playing for overcalls you got four more bets, about what you would expect based on the table. Raise and maybe you get three coldcalls plus the blinds. That is eight more bets and very generous of me--it could be much less.

Net extra flop profit for raising: (8-4) * 1/2 SB - 1/2 SB = 1.5 SB.

Don't spend it all in one place. The -1/2 SB is because you risked a bet of your own money.

So what did you give up for this profit?

1) You knocked a player out of the hand who might well pay you off in BBs when you make your hand. And don't kid yourself, often you will knock three or four players out with this raise.

2) Very often a call will allow a flop raise from near the button. This is a great board for LP raises. This button raise with players trapped is very profitable and not just marginally profitable. It doesn't have to happen that often to make your raise wrong.

3) The turn will be checked to you. No one gets trapped for two bets when you make your hand. Even one bet will get reduced action because of your strong betting. Miss the turn and you get to choose between betting again or letting someone behind you do it in your place. Either way you will have to bet the river yourself if you make your hand there.

[sfer]

I agree completely with Trix. 8 limpers are going to call multiple raises and maybe the bettor 3-bets you.