Risking a free card?

I have 8h9h in BB. MP open raises, I call. Heads-up. Flop comes 8s-8-5 rainbow. I check, MP bets, I raise, MP calls. Turn is Qs putting two spades up. I check planning to check raise again. Comments?

nah - you gotta bet here.


If you were gonna CR do it on the river when you confirm that there's no flush out.


Don't give him the free card - make him pay for it.

I don't think the free card will hurt you, but I think you risk giving up another bet. Even if he bet's there's no guarantee he will call the check raise. I think if you bet out he is more likely to call both the turn and river bets.


If you have a good read on him it's a great call.

Never do that you fool! Always bet that! If it were me I'd try to smooth call the flop and check raise the turn

If you were gonna CR do it on the river when you confirm that there's no flush out.


I am up against a solid player. He either has an overpair or two big cards. He can only have a flush draw less than 6% of the time. This is because for example he would have AsKs 1/16 of the time he has AK. Mix in some pocket pairs, and all of the big card hands that have made a pair of Queens(and therefore can't have a flush draw), and you will see that on average he has a flush draw much less than 6% of the time.


Don't give him the free card - make him pay for it.


A free card will not significantly affect my chances of winning the pot.


As you saw above, less than 6% of the time he will have a flush draw.


He will bet with any pair on the turn(afraid to give a free card to the various draws I could have), and I will get to raise him. Even if he decides to induce a bluff with say, AA, he only has two outs. I will win a river bet 42/44, and lose two bets 2/44. No big deal.


The rest of his hands are big cards without spade draws. These hands are drawing dead. I am trying to suck an extra bet or two out of these hands. Either by allowing him to bluff, or by acting weak and gaining a suspicious river call with Ace or King high.

I don't think the free card will hurt you


I agree.


but I think you risk giving up another bet.


Yes, but I think the risk is worth it. If he has a pair he will bet.


If he picked up a flush draw he might semi-bluff, or he might check. I win some bets from him either way, because he will sometimes call my river bet when he misses. This isn't a big deal because the flush draws only account for less than 6% of all cases(see my response to sucka).


If he has two unpaired big cards, he is drawing dead. These are the hands I am trying to suck an extra bet or two from. I don't want him to fold these to my turn bet. He is capable of folding many of them. This is the main reason for my check. By checking I might get him to bluff the turn, or call my river bet out of suspicion.

If he is a solid player, do you think he would bet out after being check/raised? Even if he does not have a flush draw, a spade on the river can induce him to bluff.

If he is a solid player, do you think he would bet out after being check/raised?


Yes. It would take a solid player to bet here. When I check, I either want a free card, or will muck to a bet, or I am invulnerable to free cards.


Even if he does not have a flush draw, a spade on the river can induce him to bluff.


I agree. I would check call the river if a spade hit. I don't think he would bluff often without a flush, but pot odds justify a call IMHO.

NF-

"If he has two unpaired big cards, he is drawing dead. These are the hands I am trying to suck an extra bet or two from. I don't want him to fold these to my turn bet. He is capable of folding many of them. This is the main reason for my check. By checking I might get him to bluff the turn, or call my river bet out of suspicion. "


I agree. The bets where he's drawing dead (two unpaired cards) are more valuable and more important to get than the ones where he can still draw out on you (AA, for example) even though he will only do it 2 out of every 44 times. You CANNOT let him fold in this situation. Well played.


ML

nf,


Given the previous action, I can't see your opponent betting on the turn as the only hands he could possibly put you on are A8 or 98su. You said that a solid player will bet out in this situation. Why? What am I missing here?

You said that a solid player will bet out in this situation. Why? What am I missing here?


He knows Im a sneaky bluffing s.o.b.