Why is this play so bad?

[Gamblor]

I know this play must be terrible, but maybe someone can help me determine WHY it's so terrible.

Bubble situation in the Sunday afternoon Party $100+9 tourney.

I'm close to tilt after having AA, KK, and QQ all cracked at various points in the tourney. Out of 280 or so runners, there's 32 left and I'm in 29th place. No real money until the final table.

I've never been above the average stack, as every time I build up a playable stack, I get a big pair against some desperate shortstack, get it all in, and get sucked out on (KK vs. ATo, A flops. KK vs. QQ, Q rivers. KK vs. 88, 8 flops). I was 1/5 with KK, but 3 for 3 with QQ (stole blinds!). I'm frustrated. Bad mindset.

Average stack is T8K, I have about T4000 after posting BB of 800.

Folded to the button who min-raises.

I have Q /images/graemlins/club.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif. I call (aiyaa!)

Flop comes rags. I check (aiyaa!), button moves in, I fold.

3 hands later, I get 88 on the button, folded to me, I push, called by AQ, A on river.

Uch.

[Boris]

not sure how many chips the button had. If he has a decent stack it is unlikely you would be able to push him off a hand by going all in. He gave you the opportunity to see a cheap flop so I can see the merits of just calling.

the last hand was just bad luck.

[SDA004]

Why are you "stealing blinds" w/ QQ???? Wouldn't you want to make more with Q's in the hole than some blinds and antes?

[Gamblor]

I made the standard raise preflop, everyone folded.

I can't force them to call.

Can I?

[Gamblor]

Button had about T3K more than me.

What do you think of pushing preflop?

I don't see how just calling for 1/4 of my stack can be right, that's all.

[Pat Southern]

I'd fold the QT hand preflop, but since you didn't it may be a good time for a stop and go if you think you can get him to fold. I don't think reraising preflop is a good move because he'll be getting pretty decent odds calling you preflop (and QT is not a good hand to be all-in with preflop)./

[Gamblor]

Even if the flop came all rags?

I agree though - the flop check was bad.

The flop was something like 854.

[SossMan]

You have less than 10xBB...you are in push/fold preflop mode. These are your only options. Limping/calling a min-raise and hoping to hit a flop are not options here. The call is just too much of your stack to make it worth while. I would lean towards folding and waiting until you can be first in. You still have some time, and QTs isn't all that good hot and cold. An open mini-raise from the button can be just about anything, including a big hand.

[Boris]

If you think that calling 800 would seriously damage your chances of stealing the blinds when you decide to go all-in then I would say its a bad decision to call.

IMO, whether you have 3600 or 2800, if someone is going to call your all-in they are going to do it regardless. If you believe this to be true, then the button is giving you an extra chance to double up for a relatively cheap price.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think that calling 800 would seriously damage your chances of stealing the blinds when you decide to go all-in then I would say its a bad decision to call.

IMO, whether you have 3600 or 2800, if someone is going to call your all-in they are going to do it regardless. If you believe this to be true, then the button is giving you an extra chance to double up for a relatively cheap price.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't understand....are you advocating a stop and go?

[Boris]

No. I'm advocating seeing the flop. He is so short stacked that he will not have a chance to see another flop without going all in. He might as well take advantage of the opportunity.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
He is so short stacked that he will not have a chance to see another flop without going all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's already at that point.

[Boris]

My point is this: Let's assume that with a stack of 3600, his chance of stealing the blinds is 50%. This assumes Gamblor is the first to open. With a stack of 2800 his chance of stealing the blinds goes down. I don't think it goes down very much. let's say with a 2800 stack the blind stealing success rate is now 45%. So you gamble 20% of your stack while only losing 10% of you steal equity. Seems like a good trade-off to me.

In this case he gets a cheap shot at seeing a flop if he calls the 800. You will flop a pair or a decent draw at least 1/3 of the time. I'm sure the math wizards can be more specific but the 1/3 number has got to be a reasonable estimate. It only costs Gamblor 20% of his stack to see the flop and possibly put his money in with way the best of it, as opposed to shoving your chips all in hoping to win a coin flip if you get called. Again, I don't think you lose very much blind stealing equity by calling the 800. But that's just my opinion.

[SossMan]

I think calling would be okay only if he goes all in on any flop. Otherwise, there's no chance I'm calling 20% of my stack to "see if I flop a pair/draw, or else I check fold".
Remember, it's not just his stack decreasing to T2800, the next blind increase will make T2800 only about 2xBB. That's not gonna scare anyone into folding.