Percentages on TV

[beerbandit]

When the percentage is shown for a player to have the winning hand is shown are the others players cards that have been seen taken into consideration?

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
When the percentage is shown for a player to have the winning hand is shown are the others players cards that have been seen taken into consideration?

[/ QUOTE ]

WPT = NO, ESPN WSOP 2003 coverage = YES.

[MicroBob]

that is an interesting point....

i would love to see a hand where player-A ditches his red 7's and player-B keeps his black 7's.

the WPT percentage would still be based on the chances of player-B hitting a 3rd 7....which are obviously nil.

[The Prince]

Hi,

I think it's debatable either way. On one side, it might be better television to show the actual percentages, given that there were discards.

But then again, if you want to understand poker and get a better idea on what the pros are thinking and why they act this way or that way, the percentages as they apply them (without knowledge of their opponents discards) might be better for poker and for the viewers.

Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)
www.wptinsider.com (http://www.wptinsider.com)

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
that is an interesting point....

i would love to see a hand where player-A ditches his red 7's and player-B keeps his black 7's.

the WPT percentage would still be based on the chances of player-B hitting a 3rd 7....which are obviously nil.



[/ QUOTE ]

The percentages aren't on outs, it's odds of winning the hand. If you have 77 all in VS AK, even if you know the other 77's are gone, the 77 is still a favorite, although I'm sure it's less than if the other sevens were live.

[DrSavage]

[ QUOTE ]
The percentages aren't on outs, it's odds of winning the hand. If you have 77 all in VS AK, even if you know the other 77's are gone, the 77 is still a favorite, although I'm sure it's less than if the other sevens were live.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are mistaken, with two 7 gone 77 is not a favorite anymore.

pokenum -h 7d 7h - as kc / 7s 7c
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7d 7h 624020 45.52 744318 54.30 2416 0.18 0.456
As Kc 744318 54.30 624020 45.52 2416 0.18 0.544

[MicroBob]

that was exactmy my point really.
i wasn't really speaking about AK vs. 77 specifically.

but now that you bring it up.....

(player A) AK vs. (player B) 77 (with the other 7's discarded)....both players see flop...neither one is all-in.

flop - AQ2r

VVP - "What a terrible flop for player-B. he goes from a slgiht advantage to needing a miracle card. he only has a 15% chance of winning this hand." (or whatever the percentage is).

Sexton - "umm....actually Vince he's drawing dead."

VVP - "no he's not Mike. all we have to do is check the win-percentage on the screen."

Mike - "yes he is"
VVP - "no he's not"
"yes" "no" "yes" "no"......
VVP - "oh wait....i see what you're talking about now....hey guys in the edit-room....let's get to work on this one okay??"


it was a scenario like this that i was thinking of.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The percentages aren't on outs, it's odds of winning the hand. If you have 77 all in VS AK, even if you know the other 77's are gone, the 77 is still a favorite, although I'm sure it's less than if the other sevens were live.


[/ QUOTE ]

You are mistaken, with two 7 gone 77 is not a favorite anymore.

pokenum -h 7d 7h - as kc / 7s 7c
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7d 7h 624020 45.52 744318 54.30 2416 0.18 0.456
As Kc 744318 54.30 624020 45.52 2416 0.18 0.544

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, so if you see the dude's cards next to you and he has 77 and you have 77. He folds and someone else is already all in with AK (face up on the table) and it's up to you with 77, you fold?

Well, maybe you actually do, but the software simulations are meaningless. You have to weigh about 25 other factors than just whether or not you are favorite.

As my point originally stands, the WPT odds are to win the hand and they do not take into account known cards.