Pot Odds Vs. Implied Odds in NL

[DOTTT]

Hi everyone,
After an early exit from a tournament yesterday I started to think about the game, and specifically about pot odds vs. implied odds in NL tournaments. I’ve always believed that in NL implied odds should be your determining factor when deciding to call a bet, but I may be giving up too much here and would like some thoughts on this topic as it applies specifically to the game of NL. I’ll give an example from a hand that I played yesterday.

Blinds are at 200/400 I’m in the bb and have an average stack of t3200 after posting. Utg limps, mp limps, button limps, and sb completes. I have 47o I check. Flop comes 86A rainbow. Checked around to mp t4300 he bets 700, lp folds, sb folds, and it’s back to me. There’s 2700 in the pot not exactly the correct odds to draw to a gut shot, but I think to myself if mp has a hand I’m going to take a chunk of his stack here so I called. Well I didn’t get a chance to see the turn because ep t2800 moved all in. mp folded, and I of course had to fold. What do you think of my call?

In TOP Sklansky gives an example of a final table heads up hand that took place at the WSOP (sorry I forget the exact details of the hand and I don’t have TOP in front of me now) where Doyle Brunson hit two pair on the flop and made a small bet to entice his opponent to call. His opponent had a gut shot and called the bet, hit his straight card on the turn, and ended up busting Brunson with that hand. Were the stakes so big at that point that it made his opponents call correct? I think he was getting something like 3 to 1 on the call.

So, what does everyone think about the whole argument of pot odds vs. implied odds in NL? If you use implied odds, when do use it to determine your decisions? Would it be better to base your decisions on implied odds later in the tourney instead of early on?
As always, all thoughts are appreciated. Thanks.

[Boris]

The problem with your call is that the stacks are not big enough to give you the correct implied odds. This is one of the biggest differences between live and tournament nl strategy. In a live game there are usually several players with huge stacks relative to the blinds. In a tournament you are usually short stacked and fairly desperate. That's why in tournament a hand like A-Qo is pretty strong. Whereas in a live game many good players will spit on a hand like A-Qo.

[SossMan]

I think the stacks have to be much bigger to make this play +EV. You are calling off over a 1/5th of your stack on an 11:1 shot AND YOUR NOT CLOSING THE ACTION. Yes, if you hit, you MAY take his stack....you MAY not. What if he doesn't pay you off? He didn't raise preflop, so if you hit on the turn and bet, he may think you were slowplaying an ACE.
If the stacks were much bigger, then you don't need much of a % chance to make the play because the potential payoff is so much bigger.
When doing these plays, make sure the stacks are huge, the bet that you are calling is small, you are closing the action, and you are drawing to the nuts.
None of these apply in this situation.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

In that hand Doyle bet 17,000 into Stu Ungar. Stu called hoping to hit a gutshot, and did, and busted Doyle. Later, Doyle admitted he should have bet more.

I don't like your call with the gutshot. I don't think you had the implied odds to even come close to making that call worthwhile. He was betting nearly 20% of your remaining stack, and you called on an 11-1 shot.

The more general question tho... How much implied odds do you need to call in a tournament with a draw?

I think you need more implied odds to call a tournament bet than you would need in a ring game to call in the exact same situation. For instance...

Say you have KQs and the flop is AT4r with one diamond. There's $20 in the pot and your opponent, whom you are sure needs to have an ace or better to bet, bets $5. Clearly you don't have the pot odds to call, but do you have the implied odds? With 20 in the pot, you need to get another $35 off him to break even, more than that to make a profit. Say his stack is $50. Well, in a ring game, if you think you can break him, you might call. But say your stack is $50 and this is a tournament, and the BB is $5, and will soon go up to $10. Here, you're risking 10% of your stack on a longshot. I personally don't do this in tournaments. Draws basically are not as worthwhile in tournaments because of the inability to rebuy chips if you lose. Obviously, the more of a longshot, the less you should be inclined to try, even with implied odds. The exception would be of course if the blinds / bet were very small compared to your stack.

To simplify more, say you were getting 12:1 on an 11:1 shot. In a ring game, you take it, simple as that. In a tournament, you might want to give up a small overlay on a draw because of the fact you can't rebuy. If this overlay is very high tho, there comes a point in (almost) every tournament situation where you can no longer turn it down.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

In that hand Doyle bet 17,000 into Stu Ungar. Stu called hoping to hit a gutshot, and did, and busted Doyle. Later, Doyle admitted he should have bet more.

I don't like your call with the gutshot. I don't think you had the implied odds to even come close to making that call worthwhile. He was betting nearly 20% of your remaining stack, and you called on an 11-1 shot.

The more general question tho... How much implied odds do you need to call in a tournament with a draw?

I think you need more implied odds to call a tournament bet than you would need in a ring game to call in the exact same situation. For instance...

Say you have KQs and the flop is AT4r with one diamond. There's $20 in the pot and your opponent, whom you are sure needs to have an ace or better to bet, bets $5. Clearly you don't have the pot odds to call, but do you have the implied odds? With 20 in the pot, you need to get another $35 off him to break even, more than that to make a profit. Say his stack is $50. Well, in a ring game, if you think you can break him, you might call. But say your stack is $50 and this is a tournament, and the BB is $5, and will soon go up to $10. Here, you're risking 10% of your stack on a longshot. I personally don't do this in tournaments. Draws basically are not as worthwhile in tournaments because of the inability to rebuy chips if you lose. Obviously, the more of a longshot, the less you should be inclined to try, even with implied odds. The exception would be of course if the blinds / bet were very small compared to your stack.

To simplify more, say you were getting 12:1 on an 11:1 shot. In a ring game, you take it, simple as that. In a tournament, you might want to give up a small overlay on a draw because of the fact you can't rebuy. If this overlay is very high tho, there comes a point in (almost) every tournament situation where you can no longer turn it down.

al

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[SossMan]

[Al_Capone_Junior]

[Al_Capone_Junior]

Great response.

If I might add a little schmegg of a comment...

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, if you hit, you MAY take his stack....you MAY not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because of this factor, I generally want a pretty BIG overlay in both tournament and ring games (bigger in tournaments, obviously). You gotta make up for the times they don't call you with additional implied odds.

al

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
When doing these plays, make sure the stacks are huge, the bet that you are calling is small, you are closing the action, and you are drawing to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would add to this list that it is better when your draw is hidden. Draws don't have to be hidden to benefit from implied odds, but you can expect more payoff from implied odds on a hidden draw than an obvious one.

With a flush draw against skilled opponents, for example, I want most of my required payoff to come from pot odds since skilled players will frequently not pay me off when my flush hits. I probably want 3:1 or close to it to take one card. 2:1 or less is probably not enough.

With a hidden draw like the gutshot in the hand you posted, I can take small pot odds for big implied odds if I know the opponent plays top pair hands aggressively. However, I would still fold in this specific case since the call is too big a chunk of your stack to allow for the implied odds you need.

Later,
Che

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I would add to this list that it is better when your draw is hidden. Draws don't have to be hidden to benefit from implied odds, but you can expect more payoff from implied odds on a hidden draw than an obvious one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree.

[ QUOTE ]
With a flush draw against skilled opponents, for example, I want most of my required payoff to come from pot odds since skilled players will frequently not pay me off when my flush hits. I probably want 3:1 or close to it to take one card. 2:1 or less is probably not enough.


[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree.

[ QUOTE ]
With a hidden draw like the gutshot in the hand you posted, I can take small pot odds for big implied odds if I know the opponent plays top pair hands aggressively. However, I would still fold in this specific case since the call is too big a chunk of your stack to allow for the implied odds you need.


[/ QUOTE ]

Totally agree.

Whadduya know..a trifecta! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[DOTTT]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with your call is that the stacks are not big enough to give you the correct implied odds. This is one of the biggest differences between live and tournament nl strategy. In a live game there are usually several players with huge stacks relative to the blinds. In a tournament you are usually short stacked and fairly desperate. That's why in tournament a hand like A-Qo is pretty strong. Whereas in a live game many good players will spit on a hand like A-Qo.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, in a live game my call would be correct because I'm more inclined to get paid off. Correct? Thanks.

[DOTTT]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the stacks have to be much bigger to make this play +EV. You are calling off over a 1/5th of your stack on an 11:1 shot AND YOUR NOT CLOSING THE ACTION. Yes, if you hit, you MAY take his stack....you MAY not. What if he doesn't pay you off?

[/ QUOTE ]
After looking back at the hand I slapped myself in the face, mainly because of the points you've made. I shouldn't be calling off 1/5 of my stack on a gut shot. Now my question is how big do you think my stack and my opponents stack has to be to make this call?

[Boris]

The call would be correct in a live game if you had more chips and the the other players had more chips and your call would close the action and your were pretty sure you would get paid off big on the end or successfully bluff.

[DOTTT]

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously, the more of a longshot, the less you should be inclined to try, even with implied odds. The exception would be of course if the blinds / bet were very small compared to your stack

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok same question as Sossman's how big does your stack and and opponets stack have to be with the blinds at the same level.

[ QUOTE ]
To simplify more, say you were getting 12:1 on an 11:1 shot. In a ring game, you take it, simple as that. In a tournament, you might want to give up a small overlay on a draw because of the fact you can't rebuy. If this overlay is very high tho, there comes a point in (almost) every tournament situation where you can no longer turn it down.


[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks this really helped clarify things for me. Basically in a cash game you would call 100% of the time because you can always go back in your pocket and take out some cash, but in a tournament chips are more valuable, so even though you might be getting correct odds you might want to pass if it takes a chunk out of your stack.

Great post both of them /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DOTTT]

[ QUOTE ]
would add to this list that it is better when your draw is hidden. Draws don't have to be hidden to benefit from implied odds, but you can expect more payoff from implied odds on a hidden draw than an obvious one.

With a flush draw against skilled opponents, for example, I want most of my required payoff to come from pot odds since skilled players will frequently not pay me off when my flush hits. I probably want 3:1 or close to it to take one card. 2:1 or less is probably not enough.


[/ QUOTE ]
I agree 100% with this. I would never call a pot size bet with a flush draw because the risk/reward ratio just wouldn't be there.Thanks.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Now my question is how big do you think my stack and my opponents stack has to be to make this call?


[/ QUOTE ]

Well...I would guess that the call would be somewhere in the range of 5% of your stack. Your opponent should have about the same or more.
This way, if you hit and get paid off 50% of the time, you will have +EV.
But, remember that the other factors still should apply: close the action, draw to the nuts (or practical nuts, i.e. don't draw to the low end of a gutshot with a two flush on the board, never draw to the gutshot w/ a pair on the board etc...)
Now, remember that a draw w/ 47o on a 58J board is a much different gutshot than JQ on a 789 board. In the latter case, you may have as many as 10 outs, so you can loosen up a little.