hit my overcard... now what?

[schwza]

First, what do you think of raising AT out of the big blind? I haven't read anything about starting hand guidelines for 6-max so I'm sort of winging it. My experience has been that it's pretty profitable to raise preflop and steal on the flop, so I'm looking for any excuse to raise.

My steal on the flop gets flat called - uh oh. But the turn brings help. Now I figure bad guy's most likely hands are KJ-K9, two clubs, JT, QJ. I'm ahead of all of these except JT but all have outs against me, so I figure I've gotta bet the turn.

When he pushes, I'd have to call 34 more to win a pot of 90 (124 including my last 34). I thought it was an easy fold at first, now I'm less sure - it's close to an even money call if he has KQ. (I'd have 9 outs for ~ 1/5 and I'd need a little better than 1/4 chance to win). What are your thoughts?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($50.80)
UTG ($59.88)
MP ($94.33)
CO ($22.05)
Button ($8.20)
SB ($17.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls $0.50, MP folds, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, UTG calls $2.50, CO calls $2.50, Button folds.

Flop: ($9.75) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, UTG calls $7, CO folds.

Turn: ($23.75) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets $16</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises to $49.88 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

[Ben]

I think it's a call, but it's player-dependent.

If CO is an ABC player this is a pretty easy fold.

If he's trickier (more likely at 6-max tables) he could play a weak ace this way, especially if he thought your PF/flop bets were steal-attempts, and especially since you were underbetting the pot.

.b

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a call, but it's player-dependent.

If CO is an ABC player this is a pretty easy fold.

If he's trickier (more likely at 6-max tables) he could play a weak ace this way, especially if he thought your PF/flop bets were steal-attempts, and especially since you were underbetting the pot.

.b

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm... I didn't even consider a weak ace. That would be a pretty marginal call on the flop then.

I would say most of my bets have been 80% of the pot once the pot gets somewhat big. Is the more recommended play to bet the full pot?

[Ben]

[ QUOTE ]
That would be a pretty marginal call on the flop then

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Hence the player-dependent bit. If he's ABC I think you're beat. If he's put you (somewhat correctly) on a steal-attempt, he could think he's way ahead with his ace.

[ QUOTE ]
Is the more recommended play to bet the full pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Hopefully someone smarter than I knows the answer... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

.b

[BigBiceps]

Don't raise with AT in the big blind. It is a marginal hand AND you have bad position.

Don't steal on the flop here - check and fold. Your opponent probably caught a piece of this flop AND what do you do in the unlikely event that you make the nut straight and the flush card(s) come.

[MVicuna]

Hi,

This is whats called the 'big pot/small hand' problem.

Potting it on the flop and turn with just top pair weak kicker is a good way to lose your chips. You only get called/raised when your behind on the turn unless they are truely awfull and still play their draws for 1:2 odds on the turn or truely sneaky and semi-bluff on the turn.

You have 12 outs on the turn against 2 pair that doesn't hold an Ace. Two aces, 3 Tens, 4 Jacks, and 3 of the 3rd card on the flop. If you call and suck out, you'll need to adjust your post-flop play. They will start calling a *lot* more so your steals will become less profitable. It maybe a an ok call, but you may start getting more action postflop with your marginal hands. That can be tricky. It maybe worth folding just to keep running over the table to show you are not a maniac.

If they constantly are giving up the pot when you raise Preflop and pot the flop, why push marginal hands post flop when you get called? They know what hands they need to have to win and are playing weak-tight so a call is dangerous and a raise is an auto fold when the board has 3 broadway cards and you only have 1 pair.

MarkV.