So I'm stuck 17bb but I'm still playing well, right?

[MRBAA]

Poker gods were angry last night. My KK lost to 8-2 off in a big pot (and no, he wasn't in a blind, and yes I was raising/betting all the way) when a deuce fell on the river.

Other bad things happened, and I was down about $140 when a couple of questionable hands came up.

1) I have QQ and three bet a loose raiser on my right. Bad player in whipped dog mode after constant losses cold calls three. Flop comes with two jacks, no overcards. Loose raiser leads, I raise, whipped dog three bets. Now a jack is the only thing he can have here to have just called preflop but three bet here. Loose raiser folds, I call. I think this call is fine, I'm getting odds to draw to my set, plus the slim chance he's on tilt.

BUT I then call the turn and river when nothing significant falls. Both were bad calls given my read, I think, as if he had a jack a queen was my only out and I was not getting odds to draw on turn and I knew I was beat on river.

This one I basically know was a mistake, mainly due to having a read on the player and failing to act on it.

2) I limp in lp with QJo with four liimpers to me. Table is very loose and passive. Button calls, blinds come, 8 to the flop. It has a 9 and 10 but is two suited. Checked to me, I bet, only one folds and we take the turn 7-handed. A six falls, making a two-gap straight and a flush possible. Loose passive old man to my right bets, I call, everyone else folds. Now here, I can be drawing dead if he has a flush. I'm hoping he has the straight, of course, and he is just as likely to have 7-8 as a flush. Anyway, my straight doesn't come on the river, he bets, I fold and he shows me the straight. Main questions here, did I have value in my preflop call and should I have bet the flop.

3) Just before leaving I got 77 on the button one weak limper to me and I raise. Both blinds and the limper call. Flop comes down 5-Q-K. SB checks, BB looks like she wants to bet, but then checks. Limper checks I check. High cards and her action convinced me I couldn't win it with a bet here. Another 5 came on the turn and BB bet. I folded but she was called down by SB and showed K-5 for full house. I think checking through the flop was fine, but I wonder if I should have just called preflop, since the blinds are unlikely to fold. However, I felt my hand was probably significantly ahead of the field as there was only one limper.

Anyway, I think the last two were fine and I wasn't tilting, but was just curious what others think. The first one, I think, is clearly a fold on the turn.

[Randy Burgess]

Hand 1: How do you figure you have odds to draw to your set? It's 23.5 to 1 to improve on the turn, and there are only 18 SB in the pot when you decide to call the flop 3-bet, right? If you trust your read, you give it up the same way you'd give up unimproved pocket Deuces. If you don't trust your read, then you must call down. If you think your odds are better than 23-1 because the bet size goes up, thus giving you implied odds, do the math on it yourself to see. If you figure that your odds are better than 23-to-1 because of the slim chance the flop jammer doesn't have a Jack, then assign a probability to that slim chance and see if you were correct to call down based on your expectation. But in all cases do the math!

Hand 2: I suppose it's incorrect to fold QJ-off before the flop here with four limpers to you, but it's one of my least favorite hands - worse than JT in this spot - and frankly I often do fold it. It makes fewer straights than JT and doesn't have big-card value. But let's say we call. I don't love your flop bet, but I'm more interested in your turn call: I think you could have folded there without losing any sleep whatsoever, given that the bettor was a passive player. I haven't done the math here, but you should: work out in percentage terms how often you think the turn bet will mean you're already drawing dead, and combine this with the money in the pot, the price, and how often you'll make your straight on the river without another card of the flush suit falling (I'm assuming you had none of that suit). This should give you an answer.

Hand 3: Your button raise is fine. You're not expecting much in the way of PE here, but with this medium pair the raise is better than just calling with only one limper to you.

To sum up, you say you didn't feel like you were tilting, and I believe you. But I think that hands 1 and 2 are proof that your ongoing belief that you can play hold'em by "feel" isn't correct. You still need to work on odds calculations at the table, including adjusting your odds to account for various possible hands your opponent might hold and the relative probabilities of each. Since these are difficult calculations to make at the table you should spend some time away from the table on them. It will make you a better player.

[MRBAA]

No, I don't think you can play he on feel. I agree it's a highly probabalistic game and one must know the odds. Of course feel, hand-reading, table texture are key to winning, but only based on sound odds and outs knowledge. In hand one, I neglected to note that the initial raiser capped my three bet (meaningless from him, he's also the 8-2 guy). So I was getting 88-4 (or 21-1) on the flop call. Close enough with implied odds. The turn and river calls were a form of tilt, I think, in that I talked myself out of an easy and correct read.

I think you have a good point about hand 2. When stuck, especially, I think tossing marginal hands is a good policy preflop. On the turn, I'm getting $68-8 or 8.5-1 to draw to an eight outer. So I am getting an overlay against the possibility he has a flush. I think the call here is okay.

[Randy Burgess]

Ouch. I think you're still missing the point.

First, it wasn't an eight-outer on hand 2. If you didn't have a card of the flush suit, you've only got six clean outs here. That's 6.7 to 1.

Second, just to say the pot is offering you better than 6.7 to 1 and you have an "overlay" isn't enough. You need to actually assign a probability to how often you will be drawing dead, then using this to see how *much* of an overlay you require for a call. It may or may not be the case that 8.5-to-1 pot odds are enough.

I hate to keep needling you, but you really need to do some extra work here rather than make loose assumptions. Someone else may post the math for you and either justify your call or not, but that's not going to stick in your head. You need to learn this stuff for yourself.

[PokerBob]

Here's what I think, FWIW:

Hand 1: Muck the turn.

Hand 2: Muck pre-flop.

Hand 3: Either raise pre-flop or fold. 77 either wants lotsa callers or very few. 3 opponents with that hand is the absolute WORST, so raise it up. I'd bet the flop when it checks to me for 2 reasons (1) you'll find out where you stand and may even take it down there (2) you may get to see the river for free.

[Randy Burgess]

Also, if you're curious as to why I don't know the answers to these math questions off the top of my head, it's because I'm working on other things besides my hold'em game at present. But if I were playing alongside you at that club in the city, these are exactly the kinds of questions I'd be asking myself in an effort to improve.

[MRBAA]

Well, it's a six outer if you give him a card of the suit, an eight outer if you don't. I agree, my ability to calculate probabilities for multi-variate situations is weak and something I should work on.