What does my opponents hold ?

[Trix]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Turn: (11.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 folds.

Final Pot: 16.25 BB

[JohnShaft]

66, or 44?

Probably just as likely he's some nutball with 32o though. At least he didn't river his gutshot.
Actually, it wasn't 75 was it?

[Trix]

Given your read, would you fold on the turn ?

[JohnShaft]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read, would you fold on the turn ?

[/ QUOTE ]
No way in hell Trix.
Not with AA on Party, and only one guy putting bets in. There's way too many fruitloops there. If he's TAG and solid he'll have something like that, but these people can have very little to nothing.

[mike_wzrd]

[ QUOTE ]
Given your read, would you fold on the turn ?


[/ QUOTE ]

I would put MP2 on a set. How I would play it would depend on the player. If MP2 is straight forward and doesn't get out of line, then I'd fold the turn. If MP2 is aggressive or tricky, then I think it's a tougher question.

For example, let's say that MP2 is capable of representing this set when he doesn't have it 10% of the time, and you'll get another A on the river 1 out of 23 times. So if I did the math right 1 time out of 23 you hit the A for a 15BB win, and 2.2 times out of the remaining 22 (10%) you win unimproved for 30BBs. So you'll have 3.2 wins for a total of 45BBs. The other 19.8 times you loose 2 extra BB for a loss of 40BB. So your net is 5BBs over 23 hands. So as long as this player is capable of representing a set when he doesn't have it 10% or more of the time, then it's positive EV. Thoughts welcome.

[Trix]

He had 66 for the set.

I think I should have folded on the turn. If he dont have the set, then he probably hit his straight with 75s.

[BaronVonCP]

You need to have a solid ine on your opponents play before you start folding overpairs HU. I'm not saying I'd never do it, just not against random Party folk.

[Trix]

It was 3way on the turn.