Roulete probability question

[papa smurf]

Someone has probably already thought of this before,but...
If you place a bet afer the dealer rolls the ball could you calculate the probability of chosing the right number ?
If he rolls ball at same speed every time and same position everytime(releases the ball when the number 3 comes around,lets say)

Could you turn the house edge your way ?
what would the formula look like ?

[Warren Whitmore]

From The Theory of gambling and statistical logic by Richard Epstein page 114. "A method that proffers a positive mathematical expectation regardless of the precision of th eroulette mechanism can be exercised with the aid of a small computer. Approximately 20 seconds elapse from the time the roulette tourneur spins the ball along the outer rim of the wheel until the deadline for placing wagers. During this time, the angular velocity of the ball relative to the cylinder can be measured; a moderately simple procedure consists of generating a timing pulse whenever the ball passes the green zero (for example). From the increasing interval between pulses, a small special-purpose computer can readily determine the time-decreasing function of angular velocity. When this function reaches a standard minimum value, predetermined by calibration of the wheel, the bal will separate from the outer rim, fall onto the rotating cylinder, and eventually come to rest in one of the numbered compartments. The average angular rotation of the cylinder over the time requiered for the ball to drop from the rim into a compartment is also predetermined by calibration. With the addition of a reference phase for the rotating cylinder (which can be determined at any ball velocity), it is thence feasible to predict the final resting position of the ball. It should be noted that the method is independent of the initial momentum (assuming some sensible minimum) impared to the ball. Operational tests have indicated an expectation of 35%."

[Mike Haven]

well, there ya go, papa

if you talk nicely to the casino management they might let you set up your electrodal probes during closing hours so that you don't waste any gambling time

or you could bet on red and cross your fingies

[college kid]

[daryn]

the question is could a savant do this without the aid of a computer?

[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
the question is could a savant do this without the aid of a computer?

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't take a savant, just a lot of patience and practice. A 35% expectation, however, is probably better than a human being is going to do in real casino conditions.

[Warren Whitmore]

I dont know for certain. If he could I assume he would and if he would I assueme he would make a lot of money and if he made a lot of money he would be famous among the gambling community and if he was famous among the gambling community you would have heard of him. So I am going to go with No.

[JayKon]

Back around 1980, I was in Vegas playing 50c roluette. Suddenly while the ball was spinning, the 17 did this hologram up above the table ... so I put a $5 chip on it. It hit.

This was the last time I played roulette, but I often pause when I pass the roulette table (with my hand on a black chip/bill), wondering if it will ever happen again.

It was probably pure chance, but I've often wondered if somehow my mind figured out where the ball was going to land.

Probably will never know.

[MicroBob]

here is an interesting article that i thought might be of interest. a friend of mine who deals roulette says he can accurately predict which quadrant the ball will land in.

i still disagree with him that he can actually do this but saved this article for him because i'm sure he would be interested.

get out those stop-watches kids!!



Alleged high-tech roulette scam "easy to set up"


14:10 24 March 04

NewScientist.com news service

An alleged high-tech roulette scam that saw three people walk out of a London casino with £1.3 million recently sounds too implausible even for a movie plot.

But a physicist who developed a technology-based system that famously beat the wheel in the 1970s has told New Scientist that in theory it would have been fairly easy to carry out with a little know-how and the right tools.

Two men and a woman were arrested on 16 March after raking in a huge win over two evenings. Suspicious casino staff are said to have reviewed videotapes of the players and called in the police, whose investigation is continuing. The trio are now on bail and have not been charged with any crime.

Some media reports have suggested they used mobile phones fitted with laser scanners to measure the speed of the roulette ball when it was released, in order to calculate where it was likely to fall. The whole calculation would need to have been completed in just a few seconds, as the dealer cuts off betting after the ball has rolled three times around the wheel.

But the trick could be pulled off a lot more simply if the phones were used as stop watches, says Norman Packard, a physicist at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico, US.


Right quadrant


Packard should know. In the late 1970s, he and a group of other physics graduate students set out to create computers that could compute the sector of the wheel a roulette ball would land in. They hid these computers under their clothes or in their shoes, clicking buttons with their toes.

"In the best circumstances, we could predict the quadrant correctly," says Packard. "We definitely got to the point where we were winning money, but we didn't continue long enough to make large amounts."

Such a caper is "fairly easy to set up", he says. Just two equations - one for the ball and one for the wheel, which move in opposite directions - predict the likely area where the ball will stop. These equations comprise only a handful of parameters, including the mass and size of the ball, the shape and roughness of the track, and the tilt of the wheel.

A scouting mission to the casino could give these values for a particular wheel and ball in advance, meaning the equations can be partially solved before attempting betting.

The cell phones reportedly used in the alleged London scam could have been used to determine the ball's speed if buttons on the phones were pressed when the ball was released and then after one revolution, Packard says. In fact, some cell phones have their own built-in stopwatches.

A remote computer, or perhaps even one in the phone, could then solve the equations "very rapidly", says Packard, "because you've done all that homework".


Increased odds





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Even crude predictions could be profitable because of the way the game is set up. European roulette wheels have 37 resting positions for the ball. In one version of the game, you bet on a number between one and 36, so you have a one in 36 chance of winning.

If you win, the casino pays you 35 times your bet. So any time you increase your odds to better than 1 in 35, you win on average. "Even saying which half of the wheel is extremely powerful because the payoff is so good," Packard says.

Casinos could thwart such a method simply by spinning the wheel more quickly, which makes the ball bounce around unpredictably. "But croupiers don't like to do that because people like to watch the wheel," says Packard.

He stopped his own attempts partly because new laws in some US states barred computers from casinos. British gambling laws from 1845 are currently in the process of being redrafted to bring them up to date with 21st Century gaming.

[college kid]

What hologram thing? Could you explain this more?

[college kid]

Many people in the gambling community have heard of Laurance Scott.

[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
Many people in the gambling community have heard of Laurance Scott.

[/ QUOTE ]

1 - I don't think Laurance Scott has made any money off of roulette directly, only from selling his videos and information.

2 - No roulette professional I've ever met or heard of (granted, there aren't many) uses Scott's methods. His techniques are sound, in theory, but, in live casino conditions, they are generally not up to the job of getting the money.

The true answer to the argument that there must not be roulette professionals because they'd be famous is that, in certain circles, the most successful wheel players are famous.

[Bozeman]

"The true answer to the argument that there must not be roulette professionals because they'd be famous is that, in certain circles, the most successful wheel players are famous. "

In addition, it is not in their best interests to be widely known. CF Blackjack

[college kid]

Scott's method IMHO seems to be the only possible way to actually do it, aside from biased wheels. Maybe others use a variation on his method, but the basic physics of the operation is to know how long before the ball will drop, know about where it will drop and use those two pieces of info to bet the correct sector. Other than betting biased numbers, I can't think of, at least not at the moment, any other method that might work. That's the only way to do it isn't it??? Or am I missing something???

[Ben]

[ QUOTE ]
No roulette professional

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry...

No what?

[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
Scott's method IMHO seems to be the only possible way to actually do it, aside from biased wheels. Maybe others use a variation on his method, but the basic physics of the operation is to know how long before the ball will drop, know about where it will drop and use those two pieces of info to bet the correct sector. Other than betting biased numbers, I can't think of, at least not at the moment, any other method that might work. That's the only way to do it isn't it??? Or am I missing something???

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess Scott's method is sort of analogous to a card counting system which is based on the correct theory of card counting but neglects the ten most important indices and requires you to have no bet spread. Sure, you could get a very small edge if you found the absolute best conditions in the world and if you were a human supercomputer but, in actual casino conditions which you will encounter in the real world, you probably won't get very far. There are, in fact, superior methods to both gather and use the data necessary to make positive edge bets than Scott's (and, indirectly, Pawlicki's) methods. So, like I said, no roulette professional I know or have heard of uses these techniques.

[college kid]

I know this is stupid to ask, since any professional would want to keep his methods secret, but I want to ask anyway. So I must ask-- could you enlighten me to these superior methods??? I don't know how to use the quote thing with this software so...

"There are, in fact, superior methods to both gather and use the data necessary to make positive edge."

Please, enlighten me!!!

[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
Please, enlighten me!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Before pressing forward with your desire to beat roulette, answer the two following questions:

1 - Do you own a roulette wheel?
2 - Do you have hundreds and hundreds of hours to spare over the next year or two which you are willing to devote to mastering beating the wheel?

If the answer is not 'yes' to both, you shouldn't bother. By the way, try using the 'quote' button instead of the 'reply' button to quote a post and reply to it.

[college kid]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, try using the 'quote' button instead of the 'reply' button to quote a post and reply to it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, thanks! Now I know how to quote! And although I know I will be ridiculed endlessly for this... the answer to both is in fact yes.

[Nick Rivers]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, thanks! Now I know how to quote! And although I know I will be ridiculed endlessly for this... the answer to both is in fact yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright then, check your private messages.

[BugsBunny]

See if you can pick up a copy of "The Eudaemonic Pie" by Thomas Bass. It's the story of a bunch of people who used computers to do this back before such devices were outlawed.

[college kid]