Help find a cure for calling disease

[dana33]

I have had a few hands like this lately. I have top pair or an overpair and have been betting away. The board pairs on the turn or river, I get raised, and I just can't lay it down. In this hand, I was almost certain the villain had a jack (I hadn't seen her bluff all session), but I kept calling. Once in awhile my hand is good in a situation like this (especially against a known bluffer), but as a general policy, would I be better off folding once I'm raised here?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows 9h Kc (two pair, kings and jacks).
Button shows Qd Jd (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins 9.25 BB. </font>

[sublime]

Its a small pot, so there is not shame in laying it down. If villian plays by the books(well somewhat sane anyway) then you are beat.

Where I get confused is if CO even bluffs 1/4 times here....Do we call her down? Math is not a strong area with me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[StellarWind]

There is no magic formula here. You need to examine the situation carefully and try to figure out what might be happening. In this case I would note that 1) the pot is small 2) jacks are common limping cards and 3) there are very few draws on the board that he could have. All of these suggest that this is for real and you should fold.

Before you make this a general policy, consider Button's perspective. Suppose that as Button, I have A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Against a king I have five outs plus a backdoor flush draw. If I trusted you to have a made hand for your bet I would probably fold the flop because the odds are not there to chase.

Let's suppose (right or wrong) that I don't trust you to have a real hand. I decide to call you down and hope to either improve or win with my 3's. When the jack comes on the turn I see an opportunity. Instead of paying two big bets to call the turn and river, I invest both bets in a raise. If you have a king you will call and I can check the river behind you. I don't lose any extra bets. You might raise but then I put you on a jack or worse. I fold because I'm drawing dead. Again I don't lose any extra bets.

So far this bluff raise with A3 is a breakeven proposition for me. But what if you take the bluff seriously and fold a king?? Wow--I just stole the whole pot at essentially no risk to myself. The key to this play is that the board pairing protects my bluff. Without that I would be in a real dilemma if you reraised with a king while I still had outs.

So yes, Button could be bluffing. You need to use your knowledge and experience to make the best of this situation each time it arises.

As is so often the case, the devil is in the details. Suppose the bottom card on the board was an 8 instead of a 3. That increases the risk that Button flopped bottom pair because 8's limp more often than 3's. What if the 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif were replaced with the 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif? Now Button's real hand could be a spade flush draw. What if the surviving opponent was Cutoff instead of Button? Maybe he would not have called the flop with middle pair with a live player still to bet. If Cutoff were a tight player I would wonder what he was up to.

Is Button the sort of calling station who thinks middle pair is a keeper but would never raise without a lock. Uh-oh, I'm definitely late for the next hand! This illustrates the importance of having reads on your opponents. You can't intelligently solve a problem like this without knowing who you are up against.

Good luck.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Button the sort of calling station who thinks middle pair is a keeper but would never raise without a lock.

[/ QUOTE ]Serious question: in this particular situation, isn't that the right play? I don't think calling down middle pair decent kicker heads up against a BB you don't have a read on is wrong, but it's not a raising hand, either.

My heads up play in ring games can be weak/tight at times so I'm interested if I chase too many five outers or am actually doing the right thing playing sheriff here.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is Button the sort of calling station who thinks middle pair is a keeper but would never raise without a lock.

[/ QUOTE ]Serious question: in this particular situation, isn't that the right play? I don't think calling down middle pair decent kicker heads up against a BB you don't have a read on is wrong, but it's not a raising hand, either.

My heads up play in ring games can be weak/tight at times so I'm interested if I chase too many five outers or am actually doing the right thing playing sheriff here.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not a heads up situation. I'm afraid of people who bet out into three opponents. The fact that the first two of them folded and you are *now* heads up does not change what he did. If I were BB my normal hands for this bet would be Kx, QT, J2, and 22. Notice how this board only permits one good draw and it has 11 outs against middle pair.

So yes, if my read was that BB was just like me, I would fold middle pair. Of course knowing that BB was a calling station or a tight-passive would hardly make me feel better about the situation. The only common type that I would consider playing middle pair against is loose-aggressive.

My reference to "never raise without a lock" referred to the turn: someone who would call the flop with a jack but never raise the turn without a great hand like trips. There are several such players at most micro tables.

Every hand is different. Sometimes I do play middle pair. You need to look at the possible hands you could be against on a particular board. You also need to consider the pot size and see if the risk is worth it. I don't want you to think I am laying down a general rule.

[dana33]

Thanks, StellarWind, for the detailed and thoughtful analysis. Much appreciated.