AQ vs 2+2er

[bakku]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed)
MP3 is a 2+2 lurker, I'm not sure how well he plays so I just assumed TAG

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, MP2 calls, <font color="CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: (9.75 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 9.75 BB, between MP3, Hero and MP2.</font>

[bisonbison]

You have a clear bet on the river.

I do not know what MP3 could have capped with and not bet on any of those streets.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not know what MP3 could have capped with and not bet on any of those streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing I could think of was a weakly played AK which is why I wussed out on the river. Do you bet the flop here when he checks?

[sthief09]

you need to bet that river. whatever he had, he played this terribly.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you bet the flop here when he checks?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, that smells like check-raise. I'd rather take my chances with a free card.

[SofaCoach]

Pot is capped PF and a total of 1 BB made on next 3 streets? Very strange. Bet the river definately. I wouldn't have bet the flop either versus a 2+2 PF capper. BTW, how can you identify a 2+2 "lurker"?

[bakku]

I played with him at the 2+2 table a while ago, I asked him what his posting name was and he said he was a lurker

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
you need to bet that river. whatever he had, he played this terribly.

[/ QUOTE ]

What would a 2+2er cap with preflop, check the flop with, then call down? I couldn't think of any hand other than a weakly played AK. What did you put him on?

[thirddan]

[sfer]

It smells like a checkraise because that's what you would do on any flop. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

But yes, bet the river. Lurker has a JJ that was terribly overplayed preflop.

[Blindfolk]

Lurker has TT or JJ I bet.

[bakku]

Although I agree that MP3 played this hand horribly, I couldn't think of a hand he could have that I'd be ahead of on the river. When he capped preflop I assumed the normal-AA, KK, AK, maybe QQ. However, his passive postflop play made me highly suspect AK, which is what I put him on after he check/called the turn. Against any other Party opponents I would bet the river for value everytime, but I felt very strongly about my read that I felt a check through was best. MP3 had AK and took down the pot.

[bisonbison]

You bet because he might have misplayed a middle pair, and because the possibility that MP2 will call covers those times when you might have to bet and call a c/r.

Just cause he's a 2+2 doesn't mean you can narrow down his hands to ones that make sense. Many a 2+2 will go aggro when given the opportunity vs. another poster.