a good read or an ugly fold?

[Nightwish]

This hand happened on Party 15/30 last night. There are a few fish in the game, but also some good players. I'm not sure which category I belong to. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I'm in the BB with J /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif. A very good tight aggressive player limps UTG. MP, a fish who plays most hands, limps as well. The button, a little too loose, aggressive, and just weird, raises. I 3-bet, and everyone calls.

The flop comes 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif. I bet out, and UTG raises. Fishy MP folds and button calls 2 cold. I now go into thinking mode. What is UTG raising with? He limped UTG, which for this player means that I can't put him on any hand that has a 4. He's smart, so he won't be raising with a flush draw here because he doesn't want to shut out the players behind him. The only possibilities are that he's got a Q, a pocket pair smaller than mine, an overpair like KK or AA, or just making some sort of bluff move. I dismiss the last because I haven't seen this guy bluff yet and because I can't imagine him doing this against a preflop raiser and reraiser. KK or AA is a possibility. I don't think he'd play a pair less than 66 UTG, and I don't think he would just limp with TT or 99. I'm also not sure if he would call two cold with 66, 77, and 88 when he doesn't have the right odds and risks getting sandwiched between two raisers (not to mention capped preflop!) Normally I would call for one more bet. But the more I thought about it, the more it seemed clear that this guy had a Q or better. So I folded.

Am I crazy? Is it possible to have a read like this on a player online or am I just trying to rationalize my fold?

[astroglide]

people will raise flush draws a lot there, and thought processes like the one you outlined make the play more correct. i'm not saying it's patently the case, but it's something to think about here.

[cwl]

when it comes back around to you on the flop there are 17.5 small bets in there, unless i miscounted, and its 1 more to you and you close the betting. at worst you probably have 2 outs and there is some small chance your hand is still best. i think you need to call here.

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he'd play a pair less than 66 UTG, and I don't think he would just limp with TT or 99. I'm also not sure if he would call two cold with 66, 77, and 88 when he doesn't have the right odds and risks getting sandwiched between two raisers (not to mention capped preflop!)


[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree with this part of your assesment. if he limped with a middle pair here i would be surprised if he folded when it was 2 more bets. he is either looking at 2 more bets in a 12 bet pot or at worst 3 more in a 16 pet pot and he knows that if he hits a set there is a really good chance he will make quite a bit post flop. having a set vs someones overpair is a nice place to be. if he was gonna fold for 2 more it would actually make more sense for him to fold the hands he could have that contain a Q, like KQo for example.

[legend42]

You're probably correct that he has a queen, but the pot is big, he could have a flush draw or pocket tens, and you can close the action and see the turn for only 1 more small bet. I think you have to call (some aggressive players would even 3-bet here, but I wouldn't recommend it out of position).

Stranger things have happened than the turn being checked around. If UTG does check for some reason and that weird, aggressive button bets, it might be worth attempting a bankshot checkraise to get UTG to fold a QJs or similar, or make him pay 2 cold for his flush draw. If a club hits and freezes the other two, then your backdoor flush draw might be good (though I can't imagine what the button's coldcalling with if not clubs or a queen, but hey, it's party).

Add the multiple bets you should be able to extract if you do spike a jack, and I think it becomes a clear call on the flop.

[risen]

You people sure like to gamble. This is veering towards the sort of logic that keeps the fish from folding their bottom pair. There usually not too much wrong with folding when you believe you're behind. Chasing is tiring work.

[steveyz]

I think that the possibility that UTG has a PP less than you (or a flush draw) is great enough that you might want to call this down depending on the turn & river card and the action of the button.

You say that your opponent is very tight aggressive. What would he limp with UTG and then call 2 more cold coming back to him. I think a medium pocket pair is fairly likely. On the flop, he might be testing to see where he's at.
He probably thinks that you either have AK or a pocket pair, but that he might be able to leverage the Q and move you off TT/JJ.

Will this player limp UTG with AQ/KQ and call 2 cold back to him? Does he respect your raises? I will generally fold UTG if it's 2 bets back to me with KQo if I have a decent read on the raisers.

[andyfox]

One thing to put into the equation is what are your chances of your hand being good not just now, but at the end. I find my hands, in these types of situations, hold up a helluva lot more often with pocket jacks than with, say, pocket sevens.

Still might well be a fold, but just another thing to consider.

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
people will raise flush draws a lot there, and thought processes like the one you outlined make the play more correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Raising a flush draw out of position against two opponents is possible here, but would be more probable if the opponent was in late position.

[The Bear]

You're getting 17.5-1. Who cares if he has a Q or a 4? You absolutely, positively, have to call, if only to spike your jack. How could you not?