chasing draws

There seems to be situations where even though it may be correct given the odds to call, it is just best to fold marginal hands and keep the variance down. Case in point- I chased my draw here, but think that I made a bad play, even if the odds favored the play. I know most say to call if its close, but was this close enough with 15:2 and the implied odds?


3-6 game, I don't have much of a read on the players. I have KhQh in MP, four off the button. One limper to me, I raise, LP makes it three bets, SB mucks, BB cold calls, EP limper and myself complete. 4 to the flop for 12 small bets.


Flop 10h 4c 9d.


Rainbow flop gives me two overcards, gutshot to the nut straight, and a backdoor flush draw. However, given the pre-flop three bet, I am not sure whether my overcards will be good if they hit.


BB leads out, EP raises. 2 small bets to me, 15 small bets in the pot with the pre-flop three bettor still to act behind. I call with 15:2 pot odds.


I think I should have folded, as I don't think I had the correct odds to make this call.


Then the pre-flop three bettor makes it three bets behind me (Oh Sweet!), BB folds, EP and I call one more bet. Three to the turn for 22 small bets.


Turn: 7d


No more backdoor flush, still have two overcards and the gutshot straight draw.


EP checks, I check, LP bets, EP calls, I call.

I am happy with this call as the pot was laying me 13:1, I am just not sure whether I should have still been in the hand in the first place.


River: 7c


EP bets, I muck, LP calls. EP's flopped set of 4 filled up on the river, beating LPs two pair, AA and 77.


My issues. I feel the pre-flop was OK, but am concerned about the flop play. Is 15:2 too little with overcards, a gut shot and backdoor flush possibilities? I generally play more conservatively and try to not chase, but have felt that I might have been giving up a bit with play that was too tight. Was the call correct?

Fold with a small bankroll, call with a big one. ;-)


This is excactly what you describe it to be...a close decision, so close that the matter of keeping the variance down should come into consideration.


However, I lean *slightly* towards a call here, your implied odds are probably enourmous, even if you may have to call one more small bet, so that is why I say 'call with a big bankroll'.


lars

Given the previous actions, the texture of the flop and players to act behind you, I would have folded on the flop. Although it appears you have a lot of outs, they are mostly tainted - a K or Q can give someone a straight or someone may have 2 pairs or a set (as you painfully found out). So your only clean out is a J which is an 11:1 shot. A backdoor flush is 22:1. You compounded your mistakes by calling the turn.

Easy fold on the flop, offcourse if no one raised then you would take a card off.


-MJ

The implied odds for hitting a straight here is often large, just look at the results of this pot for an excample. If he gets the Jack on the turn, he is sitting with the nut straight vs a pair of Aces & a set of Fours!!


He has 11 'outs' for the turn, four which gives him the nuts, 7 which gives him a flush draw to go on a non-paired board. 11:1 on making his hand on the turn, 5:1 on making a flush draw as well, which will give him the winner (10 outs) in about one in four on the river. Catching a non-pair heart is worth a fairly large fraction of the two bets he puts in on the flop, as getting in a situation where he wins 1 in 4 on the turn is a very profitable spot to be in on the turn.


Very close still, IMHO.


lars