Kentucky Derby Thoughts...

[Big Al]

First off, I am not a big horseplayer. They are too tough for me to consistently win over the long haul. That said, this being the Kentucky Derby, these are my thoughts going into it (and yes, I do plan on betting the race). Longshots almost always win here, mainly because there are so many good horses in the race. The two I like are Master David and Castledale. Master David was coming on strong late in the Wood, I like Frankel as a trainer, I am into BDSM so a horse with the name Master I like, and he's ridden by Alex Solis (my name is Alec)...too many coincidences to pass up. I like Castledale because he won the Santa Anita Derby, and being from California I always take a look at the SA Derby winner if he's entered in the Kentucky Derby, although I dont like his start from the 16 hole. I plan on betting Master David to win, have an exacta box on the two also. Thats my thoughts--Big Al.

[GOODBEATGUY2001]

Include Cliff's Edge and Tapit and you got yourself the trifecta. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Clarkmeister]

I gave the tri-box cold last year, so I hope to repeat that performance.

I like Lion Heart. He's had two brutal trips in a row, and there is a distinct lack of speed in this race. Should he get to the half in 47 and change, he could be long gone. Of course, if it rains all bets are off and see how the track is playing.

Behind him, I like several horses. In order they are Imperialism, Cliff's Edge, Read the Footnotes and Quinton's Gold Rush. Beyond that I can see a whole slew of horses, so I'm going to actually spread less this year, because once you get to a certain point, you can make a case for almost any of these horses hitting the board.

Good luck everyone.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif ez call this year..

limehouse..pp#1 but moved out from rail due to 2 scratches

limehouse big winner..

gl /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Ray Zee]

after watching his last race Tapit came from dead last to win easily in a tough field. i felt like i was watching damascus all over again. brought back some memories of the greats i have seen. he is the only horse i have seen so far that showed real moves.

[NajdorfDefense]

I have the Derby Double with Ashado and Read the Footnotes and Smarty Jones both. /images/graemlins/cool.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

If it rains, I'm going with Smarty Jones and Borrego who finished 1-2 in the G2 Arkansas Derby on a 'Messy' track in the rain. And a few others at the bottom. Depends on odds.
Smarty still put up a 107 speed figure in that race. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

In Fla Derby on a sandy track, Friends Lake, ReadTheFootnotes, Tapit, Cliff's Edge all put up Super-slow times on a soft track. RtF bounced after a 113 perf.

Imports never win [only 2 in history] but you gotta figure Castledale can win on soft surface, being from Ireland and former turf horse who ran a very good Santa Anita Derby to win that one.

http://www.nypost.com/sports/16671.htm
5 of last 6 winners had #1 or 2 Beyer btw 108-112. [Monarchos did not about 106, iirc]
This year: <font color="green"> Read the Footnotes 113, 12-1, won Fountain of Youth </font>
The Cliff's Edge 111 - the favorite at 4-1, won Bluegrass.
Lion Heart 110, 10-1, 2nd in Bluegrass [nose] and San Rafael.

Since Cliff is a favorite, and only Pegasus above is the only Fav to win since 1979, I'm shorting that horse.

Smarty Jones has run 108 and 107[and is undefeated going for 7for7], the two fastest combined figures at 6-1, just ahead of Lion Heart 110 and 104.

Smarty won the Arkansas Derby. In short, there are only 4-5 horses that have a real shot to win.

My picks, you saw the 2 above, and I'm from Philly and Smarty Jones' owner lived behind my house for years before he got divorced and moved. Undefeated. 2 Beyers over 107. Best Derby workout of week.
/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif
Read the Footnotes as well, best Beyer.
Lion Heart Third.

Boxing all 3 in exactas and trifectas.

Adding Borrego [of El Prado] and Friends Lake in rain, FLake out of AP Indy, and won Sleepy Hollow Stakes on a wet track, and has trained on CDowns in a driving rain. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Tapit is grandson of APIndy and dam is inbred to In Reality, perhaps best off-track sire ever. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

People say horses from PA and NY don't win, but Funny Cide last year and Lil E Tee from York, PA won over Arazi and a super field 12 years ago.

Longshots for exotics - Pollard's Vision and Birdstone if 35-1 or better. Might add for superfecta.

Who do you all like?

I also have 20-1 on RtFootnotes at sportsinteraction from last month, so with him on my Oaks/Derby double as well, I want him to win the most I suppose. Interesting to see where he goes off today.

2001 picked Monarchos at 10-1
2002 picked War Emblem [best Beyer] at 22-1
2003 had Ten Most Wanted. Oops.

who loves ya, /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

naj