All in on a draw?

[eggzz]

$5 UB multi tonite, 400 entrants. There are about 200 people left, still early, blinds at 30/60. I'm in late position with A /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Four limpers see the flop, including someone two positions to my right who was quite LAG, blind stealer, etc...Hard to put him on a hand, but he definitely likes to mix it up.

Flop comes Q /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, BB bets 60, LAG raises to 1500, all in. I have him covered by about 700, I had 2200 before the hand began, which put me in about an average place among the 200 people left.

Well, I call.

Did I have the appropriate pot odds to make this call? I figured I had more outs than just a club. I figured an Ace would also give me the pot. I read him for a pair of queens or worse. I really felt he was bluffing, of course me having the nut flush draw helped me along with that opinion.

Results:

<font color="white"> Turn comes Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
River comes a 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villain turns over a pair of fours for the full house. I ended up busting out in 140th place. Had I won this hand, I would have been in great shape, probably around 35th or so.

</font>

My gut tells me this was not a good call, but you can't always make a move with the nuts. Would anyone else have made this call, or did I really play this poorly?

Thx

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If the guy had just one pair when you called, and you had 15 outs, it was only a marginally good call. In other words, the only time it can really be a good call (i.e., have lots of +EV), is when he's bluffing with no pair and a worse draw than you. And that won't be too often. On the other hand, there are times, like these, where you're a pretty significant dog. And those few times make the times when you're a slight favorite not enough to make the call any good overall.

If there were a pretty decent chance you're a significant favorite, and then most of the other times you're a slight dog or slight favorite, that would be different. However, with few exceptions, you're a slight favorite at best here, and sometimes a 2:1 dog. Fold, and wait for more to call this player.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)