Mirage 10-20: Should I just check-fold one time?

I can occassionally get myself into trouble by betting, betting, and betting again when nobody else offers any resistance. (Sorry, One Time, but I just don't call, call call very often.) Here's a hand from a Mirage 10-20 game where I kept on betting because my opponent never raised me.


I'm 2UTG with JsJh and open with a raise. MP cold calls. LP cold calls. Both blinds fold. Three players see the flop.


The flop is: Kc,9h,4c


I bet the flop. MP calls. LP folds.


The turn is: Kc,9h,4c,9c


I bet. MP calls.


It's ususally only at this point that I start worrying "Hmmm...maybe he's calling with a hand that beats JJ". /images/smile.gif If he had raised me at any point in the hand, especially the turn, it would have been an easy fold. But, damnit, he's just calling.


So, what should I do on the river? Should I bet again? Should I check? And if I check, should I fold to a bet since it's hard to believe this opponent will bet a hand which can't beat JJ?

I have no help for you, being a novice. I am however curious as to the rationale for your betting such a scary turn card. Checking there might have showed weakness, but if you have a rep for check-raising (which I presume you do), maybe your opponent would have thought you were trying to trap him and would have checked anything less than trips or the flush.

This is interesting from my perspective, at least, because I often find myself in this situation at the micro-limits. For me, making the "correct" decision concerning this common river dilemma is what invariably separates a winning session from a losing one.


Is his passive play a result of: top pair with weak kicker? turned trips afraid of a flush? QQ afraid of AA? But this weak disposition I would expect only out of a .50/1 player, not a 10/20 player. You can be confident about only one thing with these opponents (at .50/1) - one bet on the river will not get them to fold, especially heads-up.


More in line with 10/20 players, I would expect him either to be holding 1) a monster (flush, full house) and allowing you to bet for him, 2) a hand that beats yours with a club (QQ, Kx, 9x), 3) a hand that doesn't beat yours with a club (TT, 88-55), or 4) a complete draw (perhaps QJc).


With this in mind, unless I fill up on the river, I will tend to check on the river and fold to a bet, since most players at .50/1 play ABC sytle. Of course, this is player dependent - however, without a read, even if I feel that he may be tricky, I find that by folding I haven't lost much. He could be bluffing or holding a smaller pocket pair, but at .50/1 my experience is that this is not the case a vast majority of the time.


What does a bet accomplish? Not much it seems. Depending on the river, he could call you with TT. Besides that, it doesn't appear that he will pay you off. A bet allows you to get raised, as well. And how can you call a raise without filling up?


10/20 opponents may be trickier - but given his potential holdings, like you said, it's hard to imagine that he would bet without a hand that beats yours. It might happen, but rarely enough to make calling +EV I think. Of course I have no statistics to back that up - ultimately, this is the crux of the post. But in this analysis, the best play in this situation seems to be to check the river (if you don't hit a J and especially if the fourth club comes) and hope for a free showdown.

Did this happen Saturday night? btw I didn't see you on Sunday, were you there? Either way I enjoyed playing with you Sat night and the buffet after.


Good Luck, Jim

This maybe that one time to check-fold-to-a-bet situation. You already said that your opponent is not likely to bet out if he cannot beat JJ and it doesn't look like he'll fold to your river bet anyway. Logical?

You didn't tell us enough about the other player to make an informed opinion.


Without knowing anything more, I would check-call the river. There are enough fish out there that will chase with a hand like 8,8 and then bet the river hoping to push you off.


I also don't want players to get the impression they can push me around when I check to them on the river.

For what it's worth I will check call the river in this situation. Until I know if he's capable of bluffing the river that's the tack I choose. I know in his situation I would bet the river after a check, especially if another club falls.


So I don't want to fold to TT or 88 or AcXx

I suspect your aggressive image though makes the play different for you. He probably has something like KQ and is afraid to push it against you.

I check call also. There is no value in betting the river as it is likely your opponent would only call if he could beat you.

Dynasty,


I agree this is a very tricky spot and one I find myself in very often. I find that many of my losing sessions feature one or more hands such as this where I don't ever slow down and get popped on the river by a much better hand. In LL I don't mind it tooooo much because it goes both ways, betting betting betting oftentimes means getting paid by a second best hand. Still, the real skill (which I am still developing) is getting out of those spots where you aren't going to win (duh).


On this hand I think the real question is what is your opponent putting you on? AA, AK, KK, and QQ are very likely hands for you when you open raise 2UTG. AQ and JJ too but maybe less so. Anyway...when they stick with you knowing you could have any of the above I think it means either


a) they have top pair weak kicker and just want to roll 'em out, hoping their K is good


b) they have a draw


c) they have a bigger hand and are waiting to raise


IMO, if you can eliminate C by some read on their actions or previous play then I favor betting (unless another club comes). This gives them a chance to fold if they are scared the river helped you or if they just out-think themselves and surrender because they are SURE you have AA, AK or KK. That and I just hate that feeling I get when I check the river in a biggish pot and fold to one bet to someone with position on me. Since I am committed to calling (to avoid that feeling) I tend towards betting if I think a river raise is unlikely.


KJS

why not just check and call, thus maybe inducing a bluff, but protecting yourself from a raise on the end. you came this far with the hand. not many river cards are going to change the board. he may even check behind you with a weak K.


a bet may win this, as it gives him a chance to fold, but id want a decent read for this. many times, on a board like this, on your turn bet, you can get a good feeling if the guys going to call a river bet, or if hes kinda unsure/searching on the turn call. it may be subtle.


i wouldnt check and fold...either bet or check call. by checking, your inviting a bluff.


player knowledge comes into play here also. which goes along with what you said about if he isnt likely to raise, then give him a chance to fold.


b

I think checking and calling here would be terrible. If you are willing to put in a bet, put it in first, it is an easy fold if you are raised. Costs that same as checking and calling and may get a weak K to fold.


So weather I would bet out or check/fold here may depend on the card. I don't see check/call as an option at all. A club, an A, a Q its an easy check fold for me. If not any of those, I would have to consider my opponent. I've just seen too many people call down with tiny pairs in my game. In my game I would seriously consider betting. If I were sitting 10/20 at the Mirage (which I never have) I would happily fold.


Sound fair?


OneTime

I think it was on Saturday night. On Sunday, I got caught up with something else and never made it to the Strip.


I hope your going to post a trip report in News, Views... Those are usually good reads.

I have no help for you, being a novice


This is definately not true. I have learned from many players who either play at lower limits than I am currently at and players with less experience than me.


(What is) the rationale for your betting such a scary turn card


I bet hoping to win the pot immediately. He should be just as scared of that board as I am- unless he's got a good piece of it. If he raises the turn, it is a very easy fold.

The river is: Kc,9h,4c,9c,Jd


All my problems have been solved. I bet and he called. When I showed my JJ, he turned over his Kh7h to elicit sympathy for my river suckout. If he had raised just once post-flop, I never would have made it to the river.


One Time, can you help me stop sucking out on opponents like this? /images/smile.gif

gotta love those players that play a hand just so that when they hit it, they just call it down. a preflop crying call, if you will, all the way to the end.


b

Dynasty,


i don't understand why you're so pleased. (besides the fact that you're in a 10-20 game where someone actually cold-called with K7s)...


if he'd raised you seem to make it clear that you would have folded and he wouldn't have won anything more from you.


as it is he (purposely or on accident because of his passiveness) strung you along using your aggressive tendencies against you, too bad for him you hit your 2 outer. why would he want you to fold to a flop or turn raise?


on the river (if it isn't one of your two miracle cards) you're likely to lose another BB to him because if you check you have to call because you've induced a bluff i think, and if you bet you'll be called by the better hand.

"calling and may get a weak K to fold."


if the weak K called the turn, its highly unlikely that hed fold the river. his kicker improved and he has 2 pair. consider the player, if hes willing to play K7 that far, hell call just for the size of the pot in his mind.


"I've just seen too many people call down with tiny pairs in my game"


JJ isnt a tiny pair. you only have 1 overcard. granted a paired board, and flush possible. the turn call by your opponent usually means your in trouble. what could he be calling with that he didnt have on the flop? though i like dynasty's reasoning for betting the turn, with this few players, the flush is less likely. especially from an EP preflop raiser.

however, if another flush card hits the river, id be more inclined to bet out for the same reason. then fold to a raise. i would want to improve, or get a scare card to bet on the river.


but with this board its likely hell call anyway, but not bet. *hindsight obs.*


b

Um . . . well . . . of course this wasn't a suck out. Though I would kind of have to agree with Pollux here. Why would K7 raise the turn here? If you are better (which he may see as quite possible now) you would call or reraise and K7 would have just spent 2 bets. If you are worse you would fold to his raise, unless you had correct odds to call. A raise by him basically forces you to play correctly here. Isn't that bad?


He can check/call check/call for the same price as a turn raise. leaving himself the option to fold cheaply if the river is scary. Sometimes us bad players play well on accident.


Um . . . all smiley faces aside . . . I'm getting the impression that I'm rubbing some people that wrong way on this forum. That's not my intent. The last thing this site needs is more upset people. I'm new at this. I do have strong opinions and perhaps this ain'tthe place to share 'em. Should I go back to lurking until I learn some manners? Or at least learn how to phrase things in a less abrasive manner?


OneTime

I didn't mean that JJ was a tiny pair. I meant that in my game it is possible that my opponent could a pair much worse than JJ. A tiny pair. I meant to use this as a reason to bet the river.


Sorry about the poor writing.


I like the way Dynasty played the whole hand.


OneTime

I'm getting the impression that I'm rubbing some people that wrong way on this forum.


I certainly don't feel that way.


I do have strong opinions and perhaps this ain't the place to share 'em.


It's the perfect place to share strong opinions. Occasionally, people will get upset if you criticize their play or post an opinion which disagrees with theirs. However, it's the debate over these differences which makes the forum strong. Some people have a difficult time dealing with constructive criticism without taking it personally.


Should I go back to lurking until I learn some manners?


No. Post more.

i don't understand why you're so pleased...why would he want you to fold to a flop or turn raise?


You seem to be overlooking that he has given me two free cards to outdraw him. Let's look at the turn as an example.


I've got JsJh. He's got Kh7h


The turn is: Kc,9h,4c,9c


I bet the turn.


His correct FTOP play here is to raise. He must charge me to outdraw him. Once I've bet the turn, the chips no longer belong to me. The chips are in the pot and will be awarded to the winner.


So, his options are:


1. Fold and concede the pot to me.

2. Raise and charge me to outdraw him.

3. Call and give me a free chance to outdraw him.


That's right. It's a free chance to outdraw him. When he makes his choice, it is irrelevent that I have already put money into the pot on that round. If he calls, I get to see the river card for free. He's giving me infinite odds to outdraw him


The same applies to his flop call.


There is no doubt that I was putting money into the pot with the worst of it on the flop and turn. But, his mere calling was a substantial FTOP error. It allowed me to outdraw him without having to pay to do it.

but you already made it clear that you probably would have folded to a raise.


and you don't have the odds to draw to a two-outer, why not string you along?


i see it as you making the FTOP error because if you knew what he had, you wouldn't be betting.


help me understand this please.

i don't understand the free card you're talking about.


money is going out of your stack and into a pot that your opponent is favored to win regardless of his actions (as long as he dosen't fold).


how is this free for you?

i see it as you making the FTOP error because if you knew what he had, you wouldn't be betting.


I definately was making an FTOP error. There's no doubt about that. I'm putting money into the pot while drawing to just a two-outer.


why not string you along?


He's "stringing me along" for free. If I had checked the flop, should he "string me along" by checking as well? Of course not. It's easy to see that he's just giving me a free card to hit my two-outer in that situation. But, by just calling my bet, he's doing exactly the same thing in a slightly bigger pot. Most players in my spot will just check-fold their hand on the turn unless they spike a Jack.


If he doesn't raise the flop, he's giving a free card to outdraw him. It's much better to raise the flop and put me in a spot to make another FTOP error by calling the raise rather than give the free card.

if he raises you he gets you to play correct by FTOP, you'd fold.


so why would he do that when he's got position on you and can bet if you check at any point during the hand (and maybe get a call from you because you may have induced a bluff) and just call to keep you in with the worst hand.


if he raises and you fold, he gains nothing. but if he just calls, he induces another bet (or two) from a worse hand that would have folded if he'd shown strength.


am i freakin dense? i'm sorry i just can't see this yet.

if he raises you he gets you to play correct by FTOP, you'd fold.


That's a lot better than giving me a free chance to outdraw him. In this situation, he wins the entire pot. By giving a free card, he's risking the entire pot in an attempt to win just one more bet.


Is it worth risking a whole pot just to maybe win one more bet?


Your top priority should be to win the pot. It shouldn't be to squeeze just one more bet out of an opponent.


but if he just calls, he induces another bet (or two) from a worse hand


There's no guarantee I'm going to bet again. If he were up against a less aggressive player who wouldn't bet 2nd pair into (a) an overcard, (b) and open pair, and (c) a 3-flush, then all he's done is give the free card.

...a hand that D. Andrew posted a while back when he flopped top pair with AT and bet after his sole opponent checked. When an Ace came on the turn his opponent bet, D. raised and his opponent folded. D. Andrew stated that his turn raise was a minimum of a 1BB error and possibly a 2BB error. He was so disappointed in himself that he racked up and left the game.


If I follow your reasoning in this thread, you would have to tell D. Andrew he is making a FTOP mistake by NOT RAISING the turn if he thinks his opponent has AK and is drawing live against him. If I understand both of you correctly there would appear to be a very big discrepancy in your definitions of what would constitute a mistake in this (and your opponent's in the above) situation.


D. would seem to be on Pollux's side that calling and raising the river is clearly correct when you have position on a bettor and suspect them to be drawing very slim against you. Your position would seem to be that a raise is mandatory so you do not give them infinite odds to catch their 2 or 3 outs against you.


Maybe you could get D. to weigh in on this too.


KJS

K7s got Dynasty betting a hand that is drawing very thin, 2 outs. That's about as good as it gets EV wise.

It's interesting to compare the two hands. I think there is a key differences between D. Andrew's hand (reprinted below) and my hand.


The key difference is that D. Andrew thought he had his opponent drawing dead and not just slim. He believe there wasn't any card which could come on the river which could beat him.


Im my hand, my opponent could potentially be beat by many cards on the river. He not only has to worry about me spiking a set, he also has to be concerned about me hitting a club on the river for a flush (if I had a club). Or, I could spike an Ace (say, I had AQ) and beat him that way. There are as many as 14 cards which could beat him (9 clubs, three Aces, two cards against any pocket pair).


Here is a reprint of D. Andrew's hand. He titled it A Large Mistake


The following hand occured today in the 6-12 at the Mirage.


2 middle position player limp, I limp on the button with ATo. SB folds, BB checks.


FLOP: Td 9h 4s - BB checks, 1st Limper checks, 2nd Limper bets, I raise, BB Folds, 1st Limper folds, 2nd Limper calls.


Turn: Ac [Td 9h 4s] - 2nd limper bets, I raise, 2nd limper folds.

Here is the link for the thread I referenced:


http://www.twoplustwo.com/cgi-bin/newforums/smallholdem.pl?read=17933


I erred in my retelling. D. said he was 95% sure his opponent had a pair of Ts and was drawing dead, which made his raise such a big mistake.


Interestingly though, you brought up the possibility that the opponent had a pocket pair and not a pair of Tens. What would be the correct play then? You wrote:


"If he's got a pocket pair, he's got only two outs and it may be better to call again..."


Sounds like you have re-thought this position since you wrote that.


Great discussion.


KJS

My opponent wasn't just giving a free card to a pocket pair such as JJ. He was also giving a free card to any club and any Ace (I could have AQ or a single club). Given my pre-flop raise, there are 14 cards which could come on the river which could outdraw his top pair. When there are so many cards which could beat you on the river, you have to raise an try to win the pot immediately.

Check out HEFAP on page 133, I think your opponent was playing the QQ part. Figuring either he was drawing thin or you were, so he was going to lose the least, win the max.


Comments?

True, but I think he also feared AK or the Ac. And figured his King, no kicker couldn't take the heat of a raise, if he bet. See HEFAP comment above.


I don't think the term "Free Card" applies here because you are charging yourself.


It's a great hand for discusion, hard to play for both sides.

Here's the entire quote from that thread.


If he's got a pocket pair, he's got only two outs and it may be better to call again. However, if it's a pair of 7s or lower (likely), he may not call a river bet but might call a turn raise. I doubt this is a likely scenario. I'm just looking for scenarios in which the raise is good.


I don't like my logic in the first sentance at all for the same reasons I'm disagreeing with Pollux. You can either charge an opponent to draw to a two-outer or you can give him a free card.


My second sentence makes my first sentance even more non-sensical. If he'll call the turn bet but not the river bet, you've got to raise the turn. Raise them while they're drawing.


It should be noted that neither D. Andrew or I thought it was very likely that the opponent held such a pocket pair.


Who wrote that terrible first sentence? /images/smile.gif

I don't think the term "Free Card" applies here because you are charging yourself.


I understand what you're saying but I can't agree with it. I'm defiantely putting in money while a huge dog. But, whether I check or bet, he's still letting me off the hook when the action gets to him.


When the flop action gets to him, there are 4 big bets in the pot. When the turn action gets to him, there are 5.5 big bets in the pot.


In both situations, he chooses to let me see the next card without making me put more money in the pot. Whether I checked a 4/5.5 big bet pot to him or bet to make it 4/5.5 big bet isn't relevent.

I hope you keep posting. I like differing/strong opinions. And people who are willing to defend them.


"I'm getting the impression that I'm rubbing some people that wrong way on this forum"


Not at all. I'm here to learn. If we all agreed on everything, how would any of us ever improve?


What do you think of Dynasty's turn bet? I don't think betting is a bad play, but I think it is a situation where you should sometimes bet and sometimes check. If you know the opponent, and know he is calling with something, checking wouldn't be terrible would it?

Dynasty,


When you say he is giving free cards to a range of hands that could outdraw him, you are indicating that he doesn't know what your precise holding is. Therefore, he also has no reason to believe he is in the lead at this point. If he considers the full range of hands that you may have, rather than just the ones he is ahead of, then suddenly his call doesn't look so bad. Especially if he has a chance of getting a bet from a worse hand on the river.


*****************************************


As far as the actual hand, I think your turn bet is poor. You should have considered check-folding. Other than middling pocket pairs, everything he could call the flop with is ahead of you now. And the middling pairs may not bet if checked to. Check-fold the turn. Once you bet the turn, I think that this is a good time for your opponent to do the ole "raise the turn, take the free showdown unless its a club and you check, then he will bet the river anyway" play.

How well did you know this opponent? Did you consider checking the turn at all? Against a well known opponent checking might have been the better play.


For example, you know your opponent has called with something. He's not a total fish. A lot of opponents get very aggressive with the Ac in this situation. So maybe you can rule out a flush draw. If that the case, if you check the turn he probably will bet the river and you can raise if you make your hand and win the same or fold and lose 1 BB less.

I think checking would be terrible because the "something" he may be calling with may be a flush draw. Bet it and make the easy fold to a raise. I like the way Dynasty played the whole hand and believe there is no other way to play it.


And thanks, I will keep posting. I've already learned a lot from some really great responses. I just may be a little worried about pissing people off because I don't want to be involved in the type of ridiculous crap that sometimes goes on in the middle limit forum.


happy happy joy joy


OneTime

From a different AceHigh post:


How well did you know this opponent? Did you consider checking the turn at all? Against a well known opponent checking might have been the better play.


I didn't know this opponent. He was new to the game and I had never seen him at the Mirage before.


I bet both the flop and turn because I thought a better hand (a King, a 9, or a flush) would raise me an let me know where I stood. It's rare that a 10-20 player will just call with top pair. You can count on them being aggressive. When he just called the flop, I thought I probably had him beat. With a very scary card on the turn, I decided to go with the philosophy "If you may be behind, bet with no (few) outs with the intention to folding to a raise and check-call with outs". I expected to win the pot with the turn bet. His turn call really surprised me.

Won't the turn look as scary to the other guy (who has shown zero strength so far). Why give him a chance to steal if he's behind? Why not find out for sure if you're beat, and fold to a raise? Why give a free card to a draw? Why not give a hand slightly better than yours a chance to fold when the board turns scary?


You can have all this and more for one easy installment of one big bet. And if you bet in the next 20 minutes we'll throw in a set of steak knives absolutely free!!!!


OneTime

lol...I play with idiots like this all the time. he made two mistakes:


-not raising the turn

-showing you his hand


re not raising the turn: what did he think you had? there's a King, a flush and a pair of 9's on the board. he has to raise the turn or fold. calling is an idiot's play unless he has a winning hand. what's the point of inducing a bluff when you can lose a million different ways!!!


re showing you his hand: now you know he's not only a loose caller, but he'll call all the way with top pair and not raise on a bluff. you can bet into him with a strong hand and once he calls the flop he'll call all the way. sucka.

Its all about board texture. Players are calling with *something* at this level. The flop is [Kc 9h 4c] and the player calls. The vast majority of the time, he is calling with:


A. Top pair

B. Flush Draw

C. Middle pair


With the other instances being a medium/smallish pocket pair.


On the turn with the board of [Kc9h4c]9c, ALL THREE likely hands got there. And none of these 3 are folding for a single bet on the turn.


This is a case where checking becomes, IMO, clearly the correct play. All of the likely hands are ahead and calling. In addition, the remaining possibility, a small pocket pair, is calling (correctly) if it has a club. There are 4BB's in the pot. There is no freaking way that Dynasty is ahead anywhere near 1 in 4 times here, and I don't think he can ever get a better hand or a better draw to fold in this spot.

The problem with the scary card on the turn is that it hit almost every single hand he could have called the flop with. I don't want to rehash what I posted earlier in this thread, but I think that your turn bet is a -EV play here.

Hopefully, the connection problems I've been having won't continue.

Clarkmeister and I played about two hours of heads-up on the Paradise 3-6 play money tables. We got in a total of 347 hands. Clarkmeister left with a win of 23.17 big bets. He was the master.

"(What is) the rationale for your betting such a scary turn card?" "I bet hoping to win the pot immediately. He should be just as scared of that board as I am- unless he's got a good piece of it. If he raises the turn, it is a very easy fold."


Hmm. If I'm him, I don't necesssarily think the 9 or the club helped you, mainly because of your preflop raise. Maybe you've got two suited large cards, but chances are you don't. And I don't put you on any hand with a 9, unless you have 99 and I'm absolutely crushed. Also, if he now has made trips, he may not raise till the river.

"I bet both the flop and turn because I thought a better hand (a King, a 9, or a flush) would raise me an let me know where I stood"


The players I usually play against are more passive than 10-20 at the Mirage. A fair number of them will only bet into the preflop raiser when they are sure they are ahead, ie. 2 pair or better.


I also think checking the turn might be a good play image wise. Let's say you check the turn a couple times in similar situations and players start to notice. Now, you are first to act, and you bet the turn figuring you don't want to invite a bluff bet and you can fold to a raise. Maybe this time the better hand folds on the turn because he knows you would check hands like QQ or JJ a signifigant portion of the time and fears AK or AA.

Putting yourself in Dynasty's opponent's shoes, would you raise Dynasty's turn bet with a K7s knowing that he raised PF and that Dynasty is an aggressive player?

I find this thread to be quite enlightening with all the views and perspectives expressed by all the participants. I know that knowing your opponents is a key ingredient in being a successful poker player.


Putting yourself in your opponent's place holding the same K7s suited hand and cold calls (which I assume you won't do in this position and I won't either) then calls the flop. Would you have called, raised or folded the turn bet? I would have folded with so many cards that can beat my K weak kicker.


Now in your position, had a rag fell on the river what would you have done?


Just need some clarification as I'm sure most of us have been in this situation.

i was going to post it, but was too tired...now its morning and im still tired...haha'


anyway...


if i was in dynasties opponents shoes...


first off..i wouldnt call d's preflop raise with K7.


in EP with preflop what would i put dynasty on...

high end hands...


on the flop, since hes still betting, possible high pair, AK, maybe a flush draw but doubtful. i dont think hed necesarily bet AQ here, but ya never know.


the problem is the kicker. if i had KQ i wouldnt be as worried. not a great holding, but much better. though if dynasty has a K im sure there's probably an A with it. but K7, id have to get some info sometime...so i wouldve raised the flop...but lets say i wanted to wait for the turn.


on the turn...the 9c shows.. i figure the 9 itself doesnt help his hand. dyno doesnt raise with a 9 in his hand in EP that often. so A9s, 99, are out...but hes still betting...he may very well have a K, but i want to test him, try to slow him down, maybe get a free showdown. if i raise here, ill also find out if he has the flush. since i dont think he would have a 9, it might be the least he may put me on at this point if i raise. i have to test my hand somewhere, i have a huge kicker problem, and i didnt play this hand just to get run over. this is the strongest point in the hand to do this. even if dynasty had AA or AK, if i raise here, hed have to slow down, maybe even fold.


clark had a good point about what the guy could be calling the flop with, and when the turn hits, it hits just about every hand that he may have called with. but what if he was chasing an A. im with dynasty that when the guy calls the turn, what the hell could he have that he isnt betting?...which is why unless i improve, id have checkcalled to see it. his turn call is telling me that im beat. there's just too much out there, for him to just call. with that board, hes not calling the turn chasing an A. though some do. hes also not folding for a river bet since he called the turn. what other scare cards would scare him enough to fold?

but since he caught his J, keep betting.


this guy had 2 opportunities to test his hand, and maybe win the pot. i say maybe because dyno's hand is unknown. but by putting a test raise somewhere, he couldve saved more chips, or won the hand. this guy failed to try and define dynasty's hand anywhere.


b

I definately would have raised the flop with top pair.

"I think checking would be terrible because the "something" he may be calling with may be a flush draw"


The flush draw got there on the turn didn't it?

Not if he only has one of that suit. Plenty of off suit hands that he could play here.


OneTime

The main problem here is that when 2nd pair pairs, there just are very few hands he can call you with on the river. Yes, maybe TT or 88 but that's about it. So betting the river seems out-of-the-question unless you think he'll fold a paranoid K7h.


Betting assertively like this gains a lot of value when [1] you are reasonably selective before the flop and are therefore a favorite to actually have something, and thus the opponent has good reason to paranoid: routinely betting the flop after raising B4 is close to a disaster if the opponents know you raise with lots of marginal stuff before the flop: you are too big a favorite not to have anything. [2] Your assertiveness will strongly discourage the opponent from being assertive later. Betting the turn figuring to check-fold the river is a disaster against many assertive opponents. [2a] Your assertiveness makes the opponents play predictably. [3] You plan to steal fairly often in this game and youy need to make marginally good value-bets to support your bluffs: If they KNOW you will bet JJ marginally like this it makes it REAL tough for them to call with 77 when you have AJ. [4] Your assertiveness does NOT prevent you from encouraging the opponent from bluffing you way too often: if the opponent will routinely bet all the way if you check all the way, then you should check-call all the way with your JJ. [5] Your assertiveness will not trigger counter-semi-bluff raises in the opponents who (correctly) figure you will fold if you don't have Ks or better.


+++ Go out on a limb when you push the opponents FURTHER out than you are. +++


- Louie