KK flop fold

[Inthacup]

Pretty loose aggro 15-30 game online:

Some info on the players:

MP limped and coldcalled a lot. Post flop, he was more aggressive.

LMP raised preflop on most every pot he played. Aggressive postflop with a fair amount of semi-bluffing.

LP is very loose passive. I haven't seen him get aggressive or tricky pre or post flop.



MP limps, LMP raises, LP cold calls, I 3-bet on the button with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/heart.gif, blinds fold, MP calls, LMP caps, we all call. 4 to the flop for 4 bets each.


Flop: 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

MP checks, LMP bets, LP raises, I think and fold.


What would you have done and why? What hands do you put LMP and LP on?


Cup

[Steve Giufre]

I'm not worried about the aggresive guy in late position who led out. So I think it would depend on just how passive the flop raiser was. This is not an easy lay down, and I would probably three bet a lot of the time. It's dificult to put somebody on a flopped flush, but it certainly seems that with LP raising that flop before it even gets to you that he can beat one pair, which leads me to belive he may have flopped a set, or perhaps a small flush. But, I think you have to really know how he plays before you muck this, the pot is big.

[J.A.Sucker]

Terrible fold, especially with a big pot like this. You need to 3 bet and see what happens. Look, if another club comes off, then you can fold. Until then, try to control the action with your position and get to the showdown. This is a big pot, and you can't worry about saving bets - save the pot!

Edit: Never think about your decisions in limit poker games. My general rule is to fold early, call late in these spots. However, when the pot is large, I will default to raise early, check behind late.

[Inthacup]

J.A, I respect your game more than just about anyone, so I'm curious, what do you put LP on? It seems pretty limited based on the read. This guy was quite passive, to the point where I don't think he would raise a 10 or a flush draw here.

Saying "3 bet and see what happens" seems too much like 'close your eyes and hope for the best'.

Yes, the pot is big and I do consider it a big fold, but I also feel like I'd be 3-betting while behind and while there are many cards that make my chances of winning approximately zero.


Cup

[astroglide]

i think this fold is god-awful

[Inthacup]

why

[J.A.Sucker]

You don't have enough information to put him on a hand at all here. Suppose he has a lone Ac, then you made a huge mistake. Suppose that he has QhTh or something, then you made a bigger one. Suppose he has nothing much, but is taking a desperation shot at the pot (say with 88 or something), which is a fine play on its own. Suppose that he has 2 pair, you should still raise. Am I clear enough?

If there ever was a time to grit your teeth and 3 bet, this would be the case. Also, I think that the first guy might be a bigger problem for you than the raiser. Just food for thought.

[astroglide]

they don't make cards much higher than kings, and you have two of them

[mike l.]

why did you post this? clearly your fold is correct if youve never seen LP get aggro or out of line. if it turns out you folded the winner this time just adjust your notes and play accordingly from here on. nothing to sweat over.

[Inthacup]

they don't make cards much higher than kings, and you have two of them

Your attempt to be witty has completely discredited your opinion.


Cup

[Inthacup]

I say:

This guy was quite passive, to the point where I don't think he would raise a 10 or a flush draw here.

You reply:

Suppose he has a lone Ac, then you made a huge mistake. Suppose that he has QhTh or something, then you made a bigger one.


I could suppose these things, but I think they are illogical at this point.

Suppose that he has 2 pair, you should still raise.


The board is 10 4 3. Kind of a stretch, don't you think? If LP played like LMP I completely agree with the 3-bet. 3-betting is my 'standard' play in this situation. However, his raise looked like a clear protection raise. If he has an A-high flush, he'd wait until the turn. Given that a passive player raises the flop with this board, I would much sooner put him on a set or a hand like 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif than a hand like 10 4. The only logical exception I could see to this is if he had specifically 10 A /images/graemlins/club.gif.

Suppose he has nothing much, but is taking a desperation shot at the pot (say with 88 or something), which is a fine play on its own.

I think this is the most interesting line of your post. Is this a move you make?


Also, I think that the first guy might be a bigger problem for you than the raiser.

When he capped, I put him on AK or JJ or better. On the flop, I was still thought he had a big pocket pair or possibly AK with a club.



Cup

[davidross]

I would have to have an extraordinary read on this guy to make this fold. In normal circumstances I'm 3 betting here, but I won't criticise the fold, I believe strongly in trusting your reads. I would think AT, QQ, JJ are all possible hands given what you've said about this guy.

[Inthacup]

why did you post this?

I thought it was an interesting hand. Considering there have been two(probably more) established posters that have strongly disagreed with my play, I think it's worthy of discussion. no?



Cup

[SLEEPER]

What is the best hand that he has raised prior to this one?
I find that alot of loose passive players will only bet/raise with VERY strong hands... in this case, I would say he has to have at a minimum a set.... I would fold this hand given your read on this player.... If he has raised or bet with lesser hand, I would 3 bet....

[mike l.]

"Considering there have been two(probably more) established posters that have strongly disagreed with my play, I think it's worthy of discussion. no?"

no. theyre wrong. you played it fine given the parameters you define.

[J.A.Sucker]

Why are my points at all illogical? Most players think "I have top pair, I raise" and this isn't a bad idea in this spot. You dont' think he'd have gotten stuck in the pot with those hands? He was loose and passive, right? He doesn't have the nut flush, trust me.

He could very well have 34s if he's loose passive, right? He could also just have the Ac and maybe a T with it, right? He could also have you beaten, but in a big pot, you can't worry about that.

Will I make the desperation play? I said it was a "fine play" and I mean it - especially if I can fold out KK in a big pot.

If this was a smaller pot, then I could THINK about folding, but not here. No way, no how, not in any game at Party poker. The only people I'm foldign this out to on the flop with this action are little old ladies and a few regulars that I play with live.

You've got no read to go on; those who say you do are wrong. It's definately not a read that's good enough when the pot is 400 dollars on the flop in a 15 game.

[J.A.Sucker]

Mr Glide's exactly correct. Big pots require simple thinking. Getting complex is expensive.

[astroglide]

no it hasn't. my response intended to be humorous, but its primary objective was to be simple. it seems you're trying to find complexity to justify your play, but there isn't any in this situation. you found it worth discussing, and that indicates that you think it's closer to the line. if it's remotely close, it was capped preflop, and the flop is ten-high with a threeflush you do not fold kings. if your only reasoning is that the guy doesn't seem to raise much, that is not enough to make this fold. if you had enough information to make the fold, the hand wouldn't be worth posting. it's silly that i've even said this much, especially for somebody who wrongly discredits my opinion.

[JohnShaft]

I have to agree with the non folders.
I mean this guy might be passive but all he has done is raise the flop. That's it. Just raise one bet on the flop. It's not like he's 3-betting the Turn or anything.
How passive does he have to be to have a 90% chance you are beaten here? Pretty damn passive imo. And even a player you have pegged as passive can easily suprise you and have you thinking "Gee, I thought he'd be too passive to take that action" unless you've played with him a LOT of hands.

I would 3-bet the Flop, and then see how they react.

There's 19 SB's in the pot when the action gets to you. That is a lot of bets to give up on so soon just because the flop came one-tone and there was a raise by a passive player.

And this is Party. Crazy things happen.

[M2d]

Personally, I'm wary about labeling players as "loose passive." Aggressive, maniac, and other descriptions are easier to hang on an opponent, but loose passive is kind of like a null case. By that, I mean that you can probaby label a guy as a maniac and/or aggressive if you see him raising and showing some crappy or marginal cards, but loose passive is kind of the null case of this, isn't it? At least the passive part.
Anyway, I know that there are times that my cards dictate that I play like the ultimate calling station. sometimes for days on end, I get hands like QJs, small pocket pairs and such where a call preflop is correct, but a raise would shift me into hyper aggressive mode.
What I've taken a hell of a long time saying is that, unless you have a lot of time playing with this guy, labeling him as LP can be incorrect and dangerous.

Without going on forever, I will say that I think this is a clear three bet with careful play on later streets. If he or someone else has the goods, you lose a couple of bets. If you're right, you picked up a bunch of bets. You can't be much of a dog, if any, and the upside of staying with it far outweighs the downside.

There's also a chance you get a better hand to fold (small chance, but it's there). AA with no club has too think about it when it comes back two more bets, etc). it also may let you pick up the pot later if the fourth club comes and everyone shuts down.

[_2000Flushes]

There is an argument to be made for LP raising the flop with a single /images/graemlins/club.gif. He could be angling for a free card on the draw. Although given his passivity and the aggression of the rest of the table, that's unlikely.

But suppose LP was on a /images/graemlins/club.gif draw. Check my math on this, but I think he would have around a 35% chance of hitting his flush without KK catching his boat.

So if KK were stay in the hand, his best case scenario on the flop gives him 13-7 odds. But after factoring in the distinct possibility that LP does have a flush or set--in addition to the fact that the pot is still four-way--it seems time to ignore sunk costs and throw in the towel. I say nice laydown.

-2kF

[Inthacup]

Flop: 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I fold, MP folds, LMP calls.

Turn is the perfect K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. LMP checks, LP bets, LMP calls.

River: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif

LMP thinks and bets and LP thinks and thinks and thinks and calls.


LMP flips A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif for the king high flush and the HH shows that LP had 4 4 for the flopped set.




Cup

[andyfox]

A lot of flop action, as Brier and Ciaffone point up in their book, is posturing. And when guys flop a flush they often like to get cute. Unless I have a perfect read on somebody that tells me he must have a flush or a set here, I'm going to 3-bet the flop and continue to bet until they tell me I'm wrong to do so. It's a big pot and I'm not giving up on the flop.