Easy call or easy fold?

[tech]

What do you do on the turn here? Typical Party table, no read on the players. Results later.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, Button folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players) </font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, Hero ????

[bernie]

Im seeing the river on this one. Id decided that on the flop. No way im folding here.

b

[thirddan]

i would muck...your odds aren't that good and some of your outs may not be clean...

[tech]

Any other thoughts before I post the results? Differing opinions so far. Curious if there is a consensus here.

[mpa]

I agree with thirddan. Can you really be happy if the 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hits on the river? Also, since you may be caught in the middle of a capped turn, I'd get out cheap.

Edit: meant 7 or 2 not 6 or 3

[Sam T.]

Maybe I'm an optimist, but would anyone else have bet the flop here?

If not, would you do so with a rainbow flop?

[BigEndian]

Easy call to see the river. By far, most of the time, your outs are going to be clean (there are only three players).

If the turn does get capped, you will make up the difference in implied odds easily - especially if a non-diamond falls to make your hand.

- Jim

[afs]

I'd muck -- maybe you're getting implied odds if you make it, but it seems uncertain, yr not getting pot odds here, and a diamond could well be dirty.

A flop bet wouldn't've been bad.

[chief444]

Pot odds on turn are about 7:2, or about 3.5:1. I would assume I would win 2 more BB's on the river if I hit. That gives you about 5.5:1 now, including estimated implied odds. Odds of catching the straight are 8 in 46 or 1 in 5.75 therefore 4.75:1. Based on that (if my numbers are correct) you should call.

However, I'm going to vote for a fold here for a couple of reasons. First, you are not closing the action on the turn and may end up calling more than just the two bets. Second, there are two flush draws on the board. I agree that your hand would PROBABLY still be good if one of the two suits came, but this should weigh into the decision and those outs are not completely clean. If someone does make the flush it may cost you two more on the river to showdown. I think with the "reverse implied odds" considered it turns a close calling decision into a close folding decision.

[aas]

You have eight outs, two of which might not be clean. If they hit and are in fact NOT clean, the next street will be capped.

Can you please explain?

[charlie_t_jr]

[ QUOTE ]

A flop bet wouldn't've been bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Bet the flop, see what happens. Check fold the turn.

[DoctorDrew]

Muck. I might have bet the flop and seen what happened. But I would check/fold this turn. Not a hand I'd feel good about right here.

[tech]

Thanks for the comments. I tossed it. My reasoning was basically what chief said -- the possibility of having to put in four bets with potentially dirty outs. In addition, if a 7 hits to make my hand, I don't have the nut straight (or even second best).

Results: Hero folds, UTG calls.

River is 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG bets, MP2 raises, UTG calls.

MP2 shows J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. UTG shows 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. UTG wins pot with set of nines.

[tech]

Agreed. I think that is the proper play also. I thought hard about it at the time but weak-tighted out.

[bisonbison]

Bet the flop. Since you didn't I'd fold the turn getting 6-2

[MicroBob]

i would bet the flop also here. no chance to take it right there....but there is a decent chance that you're looking at a flop that didn't really hit anyone too hard.

of course that idea would be shot to hell when UTG raises me with his set of 9's....but i would still bet the flop here.
and suddenly