misplaying the flopped set?

typical loose passive PP .5/1

dealt 99 (suits unimportant) UTG+2 - UTG folds, I just call. MP raises, LP and button call two cold, SB calls all-in (1.5 sb), BB and I call. 5 (6 with all-in SB) players, 11.5 sb

flop J 9 6 rainbow - BB bets, I call, MP raises, LP folds, button calls two cold, BB and I call.

turn K [J 9 6] - BB checks, I check, MP checks, button bets, BB check-raises, I 3 bet, MP and button fold, BB calls.

river 8 [J 9 6 K] - BB checks, I check


couple of questions

1.) raise pre-flop? limp re-raise?

2.) too much slow play, even with this relatively non-threatening board?

3.) correct to fear a straight after BB check-raises turn?

4.) how about the check behind on the river?


results in response

BB turned over KJ for top two pair, and I took down the big pot with my set of 9's. I won the little side pot after SB showed 24s(!).


I did not feel confident throughout this whole hand. Recently, I've experienced a rash of bad beats and suck outs, which has contributed to an irrational fear of the nut and a certain gun-shyness.


pre-flop I would usually raise this, to knock people out, but I felt vulnerable in such early position, and pessimistic that a raise would make my loose calling-station opponents fold. I thought about reraising MP to get more money in the pot to make drawing to spike my set correct after the flop, but decided against it. Having played it so passively preflop, and with so many callers, I figured I was up against big cards and needed to spike a set to win.


Which I did. But I feel that I certainly didn't maximize my profit. On the flop, two straight draws were on the board and enough money was in the pot to justify calls. I feel I probably should have reraised MP's raise on the flop to charge the draws the max amount, instead of waiting until the turn to raise the stakes.


My turn and river behavior were conflicting - if I really felt that the BB had QT for the nut, why'd I 3 bet? When he just called, I should have bet on the river. Instead I checked, fearing another check-raise.


This is probably a situation where I need to value bet on the river, correct?


I welcome comments and opinions about how the forum would have played this.


Thanks guys!

Donkey

raise preflop here is optional...i tend to do it.


you say the game is 'loose' passive...im jamming the flop...QT is possible along with 78.


the turn...i tend to bet out, but you got a check reraise. i wouldnt be scared of the str8 since a str8 should be capping here...which leads to


the river...im betting, the 8 doesnt change much. QT wouldve capped the turn. id bet out, and call if raised


"I did not feel confident throughout this whole hand"


you failed to define any hands until the turn. then when you did, you didnt trust the info given you. i have a feeling there was a flush draw on the board...*suits are important to reading* at least if its a 2 tone on the flop.


"and pessimistic that a raise would make my loose calling-station opponents fold"


do you think 99 is like AA or KK? you want them to fold. you dont want this multiway. you want the Qs to Ts out. A and Ks may come along anyway. but 99 is vulnerable...in fact:


"preflop I would usually raise this, to knock people out, but I felt vulnerable in such early position, "


you gave yourself the reason to raise in the first part of the sentence.


"I thought about reraising MP to get more money in the pot to make drawing to spike my set correct after the flop, but decided against it. Having played it so passively preflop, and with so many callers, I figured I was up against big cards and needed to spike a set to win."


your all over the road here. you think of reraising so you can try to draw to a set, yet you dont because you think youll need a set to win...what?? its not good to use a pkt pair as a draw like this. the reason to raise is not to give you drawing odds, but to build the pot if you hit your set. ALSO its so you can knock out some overcards maximizing your chances.


the passivity on the flop, was made up for a little on the turn, though a scare card came up. if im deciding to wait for the turn, but the flop is 2 bet, screw the turn, ill 3/4 bet, the fish are biting now. *hence the importance of knowing its a 2 tone board. many more hands can be jammed on a 2 tone*


yes, you shouldve bet the river...as stated earlier, i doubt there's a str8 or overset.


it also seems you know where you screwed up a little. oh well, live and learn...


the cards will turn eventually...


b

Hey Bernie,


Thanks for your candid comments. You are right on the money in pointing out that my reasoning in this hand was especially convoluted, and hence my confused play. It was truly "stop and go" if you will, from passive to agressive, and at the end of hand I was left with a rather unsatisfied feeling even though I won. So that's why I posted, and your opinion definitely helps.


If I were to do it again, I would probably raise pre-flop, even if in early. I now understand more clearly why this is important: (not only to knock players out) but to make sure there's money in the pot when you win (since you miss more often than you hit).


With so many opponents, it probably was unwise to slow-play the set as far as I did. But with less opponents (1-2), and an uncoordinated board, I imagine slow-playing becomes the proper strategy?


By the way, the turn completed the rainbow, so there was no flush draw. But I understand the need for that information. Next time I'll make sure to include it.


Thanks bernie!


Donkey

"But with less opponents (1-2), and an uncoordinated board, I imagine slow-playing becomes the proper strategy? "


replace 'proper' with 'optional'.


many situations where a slowplay is a good tactical move. too many to explain, but over time, youll see quite a few instances posted on here. it can be a huge gray area. some plays are made to save chips, some are made to define hands, etc...


if this was a 2 tone board, there could be a case to wait to the turn, however, with this many players, i tend to ram and jam with em, to build a pot for my draw also.


you played it fine, except the river bet. but thats only a minor mistake, since it only cost ya a bet. remember a major mistake costs you the pot.


i also know the feeling of nothing going your way. if that feeling persists, take a break from playing for a day or so. get your mind away from the game abit. youd be suprised at how much this can clear your view of the game.


ciao


b

1.) raise pre-flop? limp re-raise?


I rarely raise with 99 in early position (definately less than 10%). I know that Clarkmeister raises with it nearly 100% of the time.


2.) too much slow play, even with this relatively non-threatening board?


The board is not non-threatening. It has straight draws written all over it: KQ, KT, QT, T8, T7, 87.


There is no reason to slowplay a set when there has been a pre-flop raiser. You should bet into him hoping that he raises with an overpair or overcards and then 3-bet him. Get lots of money into the pot on the flop when you are way ahead. Players who slowplay sets usually cost themselves lots of money.


3.) correct to fear a straight after BB check-raises turn?


No.


4.) how about the check behind on the river?


That's an easy bet, especially after the player who you feared had the straight checks.


It's really a bad sign when you flop a set and you only bet or raise once in the entire hand.

raise preflop (with 99 in EP) is optional...do you think 99 is like AA or KK? you want them to fold. you dont want this multiway.


If players are cold-calling pre-flop raises, which is rampant in low limit games and very common in mid-limit games, I don't think raising with 99 is the best play.


With 99, you are entering territory where flopping a set becomes necessary in order to win the hand a significant majority of the time. The chance of an overcard coming on the flop skyrocket to 80% with 99. I don't see an unimproved 99 winning showdowns very often.


In most games, the pot is going to be multi-way whether you raise or not. So, the best play is usually to see the flop cheaply for one bet.

Thanks for the response Dynasty. You remind me of my high-school football coach - you don't pull any punches.


That you, Clarkmeister, and Bernie have differing views about pre-flop strategy with 99 indicates to me that, once again like many other things in poker, there is no set answer - "it depends." One thing that is lacking in my game is consistency, though. Knowing that "it depends" is as much a curse as a blessing when you are learning.


As far as post-flop play, yes, I couldn't have asked for a better situation to win a big pot - many callers and agressive raiser. However, at least on the flop, why not let him do the raising for me initially. . . after it came back around to me, though, I feel a 3-bet was the best play. Well, there's always next time.


Thanks!


Donkey

However, at least on the flop, why not let him do the raising for me initially. . . after it came back around to me, though, I feel a 3-bet was the best play.


I agree with this. Since somebody on your right bet the flop and the pre-flop raiser has yet to act on your left, you can go for a call/3-bet here. However, you have to be fairly sure that the pre-flop riaser will indeed raise the flop. Most players won't raise the flop with AK or AQ here. You have to hope they've got AA, KK, QQ, or AJ.


My default play would be to raise the flop myself and hope to get 3-bet by an overpair. If he's willing to 3-bet the flop, he will almost certainly bet the turn so you can go for a checkraise there.

everything you stated depends on game texture. no kidding...


"If players are cold-calling pre-flop raises, which is rampant in low limit games "


this must be location dependent. where i play, its not quite as rampant. it happens, but not nearly as routinely as other areas...on the weekends its much more common than during the week.


which is why i try to generalize an answer. so it doesnt pertain to just one type of game that i see in my cardroom.


b

Handy to know. Did you do the calculation yourself or look it up somewhere?

I asked a few people to run simulations for me. They came up with about a 70% figure. I bumped it up a little bit to make my point here. Based on experience, it 70%-80% seems right.

In search of odds tables I hunted through my trove of semi-bogus poker books and came up with the "Winner's Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker." This book has some very weird advice in it (hence Mason's low rating in his review), but it also has some nifty tables. If they can be trusted, they'd be pretty neat. The table in question here is "Percent Chance That You Will Flop an Overcard," on p. 196.


Here's an abbreviated version of the table for 88 or higher - in all cases, the probability you'll flop one or more overcards to your pocket pair:


KK 22.6

QQ 41.4

JJ 57.0

TT 69.5

99 79.3

88 86.7

In EP, MP, LP, blinds.....99 is a freaking powerful hand and wins way way more than its fair share. Game texture matters somewhat, as does your position, blah blah blah, but I'm raising UTG with 99 something near 85% of the time.

I'm raising UTG with 99 something near 85% of the time.


Somewhere, we reach a point where raising with pocket pairs UTG is not best. I'd love to know where this line is. I've got an almost arbitrary line drawn between TT and 99. With TT, I raise 100% of the time. With 99, I raise less than 10% of the time. Under normal game conditions, I've assumed you have a similar line either between 99 and 88 or 88 and 77.


It would be interesting to see a study of pocket pairs determining when the value of the hand is more from flopping a set and less from winning unimproved. I think it's at that point where you should stop raising in EP with the pocket pair.

Ken Warren's tables are correct. For the complete tables and how to calculate them see:


http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag20/

Didn't read the responses or results.


"Non threatening board"?? Are you nuts? Someone, maybe EVERBODY, got a reasonable piece of that board. Only small pairs, Axs, and small suited connectors "missed". Who else doesn't have either a pair or a gut draw? The only reason to "slow play" is because you think you can gain extra bets on the turn.


I dislike slow playing in early position since you are risking 3 to win 1 more bet. Having said that, I would tend to flat call the first bet but from that point forward (the hopeful better is behind me) flail away until its obvious I'm beat.


The "K" may or may NOT be a good card for the MP raiser, so I'd be leary about him checking after getting that card.


After 3-betting the turn that "8" doesn't look so threatening since QT already had a straight and the T7 straight doesn't look too likely. If your trips were probably good on the turn I'd bet this one out on the end.


- Louie