$4-8 hand

[Ronaldinho_jr]

I'm button. Four limpers to me with 98s. I call, blinds complete/check.

Flop: 89T, two clubs.

EP bets, two callers, and I raise. I know I'm looking at a possible made straight. EP calls. The callers continue to limp. Nobody dropped? Wow. But surely the straight would re-raise me here to get out the flush draw, right?

Turn:
2h.

checkd to me, I bet, EP raises. Limpers continue to limp(?!) I call. I may be beat here, but I'm getting the odds to chase even if I am.


River
Qs. Shoot. EP bets. One limper drops. The other calls. I make a crying call.

Results below...









EP turned over QJ for the made straight on the flop. In retrospect, the queen hitting should have made it easy for me to save that last bet, but beyond that... any thoughts?

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
But surely the straight would re-raise me here to get out the flush draw, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Get out the flush draw...the flush draw isn't going anywhere and would be making a CRITICAL mistake to fold. if there are 3 players they are getting even money on every dollar put in, and with more they are gaining on every dollar going in. Folding is ridiculous.

I think this comes from lee Jones.

This is one of ed millers biggest gripes...that people misunderstand this.

The only flush draw you're charging on the flop is a backdoor flush draw. If you wanna cut down the flush draws ev raise the turn where it's less of a chance of coming on the river. They're still not going to fold and would almost always be incorrect in doing so, but you're cutting down on their ev.

Hope this helps.

if i didn't have top 2 i'd fold on the turn, but you gotta figure you probably have 4 clean outs on a full house draw. Folding is still ok though.

[Schmed]

no way do I fold that hand on the river. You were in trouble but there is just too much money in the pot to fold for one bet.

I don't know that I would have played it any different. I would be thinking a little different on the flop. First of all the flush draw isn't going anywhere for 2 bets, he'd be wrong to. I also find that players will try and get tricky with a hand like that and wait until the turn to come alive. That's why a good player that flops a hand like that will bet out because the bad players think that if you had it you would get tricky with it.

There may be an argument to check the turn but I'd bet it. If I'm raised there is too much in there for me to fold for 1 bet more on the turn and 1 on the river.

[Ronaldinho_jr]

[ QUOTE ]

Get out the flush draw...the flush draw isn't going anywhere and would be making a CRITICAL mistake to fold. if there are 3 players they are getting even money on every dollar put in, and with more they are gaining on every dollar going in. Folding is ridiculous.

I think this comes from lee Jones.


[/ QUOTE ]

It does. I've been pretty successful with his advice in very weak games, although I'm now working through HPFAP. But it seems to me that if I raise on the flop and the EP player raises, it becomes a tough call for the flush draws.

But maybe the people I'm plaing with tend to be a little vaguer in their math than they should be.

[Ed Miller]

But it seems to me that if I raise on the flop and the EP player raises, it becomes a tough call for the flush draws.

It doesn't become a tough call. It's still an easy call.

But maybe the people I'm plaing with tend to be a little vaguer in their math than they should be.

The people you play with won't be doing any math at all. But I'm afraid you don't understand the math either. Hate to leave you on that, but I'm too tired to go through it all again. Maybe someone else will.. or at least will dredge up a link to one of my old posts on this subject.

BTW, this will (hopefully) be clear to you if you read my book.

[Bob T.]

BTW, this will (hopefully) be clear to you if you read my book.

Which will be appearing ...when?

[Ed Miller]

Which will be appearing ...when?

Most realistic estimate currently is Late July/Early August. I'm almost done with my part... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Ronaldinho_jr]

Well, I'd appreciate a link if someone can dredge it up. Ed has a lot of posts here and I am looking to improve my understanding of the game or I would be here.

[MRBAA]

If one of the limpers has a flush draw and called the original bet, they are getting at least 11-1 when you raise. It's a no brainer call. You won't knock anyone with anything out with this raise except people who you want to keep in (like pair of eights or pair of nines)

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'd appreciate a link if someone can dredge it up. Ed has a lot of posts here and I am looking to improve my understanding of the game or I would be here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's an example:

You: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Opp1: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Opp2: 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Opp3: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Flop: T /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

You have bottom 2 pr.
Opp1 has the made straight
Opp2 has the flush draw
Opp3 has top pair and backdoor flush draw.

Before you look at the answer, tell me who's most likely to win? 2nd most? Third? Least?

Result in white
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=287166
<font color="white">
pokenum -h 8s 9s - qd js - 3c 4c - td ad -- 8c 9d tc
Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc 8c 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 146 17.80 670 81.71 4 0.49 0.179
Js Qd 368 44.88 448 54.63 4 0.49 0.450
4c 3c 256 31.22 560 68.29 4 0.49 0.313
Ad Td 46 5.61 770 93.90 4 0.49 0.057
</font>

Notice the flush draw is almost twice as likely to win as you are. Also notice that he is getting over 31% of the money going into the pot. So when he is up against these 3 opponents, he wants as many bets as possible going in on the flop. Example: If you each put 100 bets in on the flop, on average he would get back 125 bets (100 bets * 31.3% win rate * 4 players)

So you are not "making the flush draw pay" and you are definitely not getting the flush draw to fold.

[ddubois]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/favlinker.php?Cat=&amp;Entry=11809&amp;F_Board=smallholdem &amp;Thread=370094&amp;partnumber=1&amp;postmarker=

[Ronaldinho_jr]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are not "making the flush draw pay" and you are definitely not getting the flush draw to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, thank you. That was very valuable for me to see. I appreciate you're taking the time.

Second, I guess I'll be pre-ordering Ed's book, because playing against draws is clearly a big hole in my game.

Third, please excuse me while I go test out a bunch of hands with that poker calculator.

-Ron

[BeerMoney]

Dude, you assumed he was up against the straight. What if he was against a flush and a straight draw... This is what I have:

Holdem Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Tc 8c 9d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 315 38.41 499 60.85 6 0.73 0.386
4c 3c 209 25.49 605 73.78 6 0.73 0.257
Jc 4h 139 16.95 675 82.32 6 0.73 0.171
Ts Qd 151 18.41 663 80.85 6 0.73 0.186

Now, he's out in front, and is correct to put in as many bets as he can. Remember, it can be correct for TWO people to call bets or what ever..

Consider this situation:

You have K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif
The board is:
J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

You have 2 opponents
One has 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Another has 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

If there are Ten big bets in the pot, and you lead out, what should they do? They should both call, they have odds, therefore, you want them to fold. But, What if it were no limit and you moved all in.. Then what would you want them to do? I would want them to call assuming you pushed in a ton of chips. Collectively they have 13 outs, and we've seen 10 cards, so 29 help you, and 13 help them.. So, if you were to push 100 chips in, and they called you, 29 times you get 200 chips for 5800 and 13 times, you lost 100 for -1300, and the stuff that's in the pot..

Beer