44, 3bet behind me, do I have odds?

[joker122]

The only read I have is that SB will raise PF with any pair down to 22, but I don't know what his 3 betting standards are.
This pot was going to be big, so did I have odds to flop a set even though I was likely dominated?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP1 folds, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Button calls.

Flop: (17 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero folds, MP3 calls, Button folds.

Turn: (10 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks.

River: (10 BB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP3 checks.

Final Pot: 10 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
SB shows Jh Jc (three of a kind, jacks).
UTG+1 shows 6h 7h (high card, king).
MP3 shows 9h 9d (one pair, nines).
Outcome: SB wins 10 BB. </font>

[Lost Wages]

You are getting about 6:1 when it's back to you with the likelyhood of more calls behind you. That is way more than enough considering that there figures to be a lot of action postflop.

On the flop you could have called getting 19:1.

Lost wages

[James Boston]

You're about 7-1 to flop a set (if my quick math is right), but your implied odds are also great seeing as how you'll probably get lots of action if you do flop a set. Just not second best set as it would have turned out in this case.

[sthief09]

If you had the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, I'd be tempted to call the flop here. With MP3 to act behind you, it's a big worrisome, but you were getting 19-1 on a 22.5-1 shot. the flush draw kind of ruins everything.

Ironically, in addition to losing to a bigger set, if you turned a set of 4's, you would've been behind to UTG+1's straight also.

[MarkD]

I think everyone is oversimplifying things a tad bit. This is how I look at things and it isn't exact but it is certainly quite close.

So, it's about 7.5-1 against you flopping a set and sometimes you loose so you are about 9-1 against winning (I've seen this number 9-1 somewhere in the past, possibly from Abdul's site). Anyways, that isn't the important part let's just assume 9-1 is close.

So... what does this mean? If we call 1 bet pre-flop you need to win a pot of 9 small bets to break even. If you call 2 bets pre-flop you need to win a pot of 18 small bets to break even. 3 bets -&gt; 27 bets, and 4 bets -&gt; 36 bets.

Anyways, in your case there was around 11 bets in the pot already (counting your first bet which is now a part of the pot) and you have to call 2 cold so you need to make 18 small bets on that call to break even. Since the pot contains 11 you need to make 7 more and with 5 opponents that isn't a problem so your call is correct.

This is why I wouldn't call 3 bets cold with a small pocket pair if I only expected 5 way action. You need to expect 12 small bets worth of future action.

As was already mentioned, getting 19-1 on the flop you can call to spike your set on the turn. EDIT: I didn't notice the flush draw. I'd most likely fold the flop now since you aren't completing the action and the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif can hurt you.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
As was already mentioned, getting 19-1 on the flop you can call to spike your set on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


I disagree with this for 2 reason:

1. a preflop aggressor is left to act behind Hero on the flop, and very well may raise.
2. one of his 4's may make someone a flush.

I agree with the rest of your post 100% and I think you stated it perfectly.

EDIT: I didn't see your EDIT /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MicroBob]

for more discussion on whether to call PF with hands like this you can also check out my post in the ML forum titled 'Close But No Cigar'.

a lot of different views out there regarding CC-ing the PF raises with low PP in EP.


i think calling this PF is fine because of the 5-way action.
won't go into more detail as i'll only be repeating what i have already said in the other thread.

[Lost Wages]

the flush draw kind of ruins everything.

Not really. True one of your outs makes a flush possible but even if someone does makes a flush you still have a 10 out redraw in a multiway pot. I'll admit the flush draw and the fact that you are not closing the action makes the flop call marginal.

Lost Wages

[balkii]

I think the problem with the 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is not that it might give someone with two diamonds a made flush, but that it gives nearly any diamond a strong redraw against Hero's set.

At 19:1 immediate odds plus implied odds I am not sure whether these are sufficient to call; but the fact that you are not closing the action and are very possibly facing a raise would probably swing this to a fold.

[MarkD]

Exactly. When I'm drawing long I typically want to be closing the action and typically I want an overlay (or be in a situation that ensures I'll collect a lot of future bets). Only getting 19-1 and having the pre-flop raiser still to act swings this to a fold regardless of the diamonds. The diamonds add to the reasons that make this flop fold the clear decision.