Read vs. Need

[DcifrThs]

I was playing 15/30 with GoT last night and this hand came up. we never discussed it or mentioned it.

i get 9d7d in the sb and call after UTG+1 raise and 3 cold calls. bb checks. 6 to the flop for 12 sb's.

JdTd9c flops. i check hoping UTG+1 bets but its checked to the button who bets. i call as does everybody else.

Qd turns. beautiful. i bet all call to button who raises i reraise three fold one call back to the button who pauses.

here's my read. usually, anybody who takes a pause here to "think" online is disguising the strength of their hand. in my head i say to myself if he caps here he's got the ace, no question. after about 5 seconds, which is a decent amount of time relative to the action, he raises. i call.

River: blank. i check and call.

now some of you will say, "wait, he could just have a king here and be stupid" but i disagree and want opinions on whether i really have to call here.

while he was "paused" i looked at the board and said to myself, "okay, he KNOWS there is an obvious straight out there and i at least have that if not a flush. the Q,J,andT are all out there so he can only have the K or A high flush if he reraises here. he usually won't reraise with a Kx and would be retarded to do so with an 8, especially since there is another person who called my reraise cold. i haven't seen him get out of line yet so if he pauses and raises here i know he has the nut flush or at the very least KdXd."

do i call here or just comfortably fold my 9 high flush to my read?

results to come.
-Barron

[Coilean]

Barring some prior knowledge of the button's play, I would never ever fold the turn or river here. Can't he be overplaying AK with a diamond, or be just another of the faceless horde of clueless online players we keep hearing about? As for online pause based reads, those have to be even less reliable than live facial reads (which I only rarely find useful); at least some of the time they will be caused by completely irrelevant and unknowable outside factors such as netlag or answering a phone call.

[CrackerZack]

You have to call and you know it. I agree with the pause move. It happens a lot and often means just that. It also works alot which is why it still happens a lot. The pause is the problem here, not his cap. He could very easily be capping with AdKx or less likely, AxKd. But also QQ, JJ, TT figuring he can check behind on the river if he doesn't improve. This makes his river bet more troubling when a blank hits but its a must call. The pot is huge.

[SoBeDude]

Against many players, this read is pretty reliable. The long pause then the raise is usually close to the nuts.

But having said that I agree, and there is no way I'm folding a flush here. (Also you have a 2-out redraw to the stones.)

You have to call in these Party games.

-Scott

[MaxPower]

Of course you don't fold your flush for reasons that already have been explained.

I hate to bring up pre-flop questions, but do you think this is a good pre-flop call?

[glen]

The pause and raise is very reliable, but you almost always have to call anyways. It's really annoying sometimes when someone takes all the time, and just because of the pause you feel it coming, and you just want to pay it off and get to the next hand. . . .

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
Against many players, this read is pretty reliable. The long pause then the raise is usually close to the nuts.

But having said that I agree, and there is no way I'm folding a flush here. (Also you have a 2-out redraw to the stones.)

You have to call in these Party games.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to nitpick, but if he's behind to anything other than AdKd he probably only has one straight flush out, given the button probably has the Ad (Kd makes him a royal) or holding the Kd himself. As for the hand, his reraise could be from AdKx or AxKd, too

[Garland]

[ QUOTE ]
But having said that I agree, and there is no way I'm folding a flush here. (Also you have a 2-out redraw to the stones.)

[/ QUOTE ]

There are no redraws for our friend here to the stone nuts as someone with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif will already have the lock on this hand.

8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is best if that situation doesn't already exist.

K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif will give the person with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif the stone nuts.

Garland

[Diplomatdcm]

Maybe it is a leek in my game but you would have to chop the cards out of my proverbial hand. You are porbably beind, but there are enough party players who will get crazy call everytime. In all honest I would not be supried to see a set or KK with the K of dimonds.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
(Also you have a 2-out redraw to the stones.)


[/ QUOTE ]

assuming i'm on a draw against a higher flush here i have 1 out to the "stones" vs. Axd or Kxd and am dead to AKd.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

if you couldn't already guess the button showed Ad6d for the nuts.

i just prayed an 8 would fall so i could bet out and get it capped. no way in hell i assume he has AKd since he cold called preflop.

Thoughts: when he paused and raised i was 100% certain he had the ace and another diamond probably not the 9 or 7, so probably 8 6 or below. i would have made a $70 bet right there on the spot to anybody who was around me (but online poker is lonely /images/graemlins/frown.gif ). so i would have made $10 on the overall call but lose $130 when i win the pot...but i win the pot so yeah....worst case scenario he had KdXd and i lose $130 and the pot. but NOBODY pause-raises with the K high flush here so i'm willing to take that risk.

seeing how certain i was it hurt to call him down. that kind of "you got me" hurt. the kind Feeney says in his book, "think of all those times you say 'you got me' and call anyway" in reference to saving bets on the end.

but, alas, ... sigh... everybody is 100% correct. i must call and then check and call. if i had a MUCH better read on the button or it was live against a VERY good but non-tricky and predictable player who would cold call with exactly a suited ace, med-small pair or those suited connectors and 1 gappers and then raised like he did on the turn i'd fold. screw ya'll ... i really would lay down that 9 high flush live if the above read was accurate. he would never play a hand i could beat the same.

BUT, its online, its party, and i'll be shown a worse hand enough to make this a correct call, then c-c the river play.

i just can't get over though how SURE i was he had the nuts. SOOOO sure. i felt it in my stomach and every bone of my body. i knew it. and i called him down and it hurt. i even said to myself during the pause, if he raises here i should fold. but i didn't (correctly according to you all), i called him down.

just frustrating i guess. onward and upward
-Barron

[Buckshot]

I haven't read the other posts yet, but I assume they're all saying the same thing about 2 outs to the stones.

But putting that aside, I'm sure you wouldn't have called 2 suited in the SB here anyway, right?

~stephen

[DcifrThs]

to everybody who questioned my preflop call:

i call here with 97s, t8s and the like when one early player raises and gets 3 cold callers. its quite likely the bb will call and not reraise unless he's prone to do that anyway in which case i just fold most of my sb hands to this bb maniac anyway.

there are 9.666- bets in the pot when it gets to me, it costs me 1.33 to complete with a virtual assurance the bb will complete. take me at half my word and thats .5+9.666:1.33= 7.644:1

so are you telling me (discounting for early position disadvantage) that you would not call late getting 5 or 6:1 on a call? taking 5:1 in late position thats a 35% position premium. i think thats reasonable and pokerroom stats seem to give a similar premium to position of blinds vs. LMP to button. if 4 people limp ahead of me i call with 97s getting 5:333:1 in the 15/30 games. therefore, i also call getting over 7:1 on a call out of position.

please tell me i'm wrong and then tell me why. thanks
-Barron

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
... when he paused and raised i was 100% certain he had the ace and another diamond ... if i had a MUCH better read on the button ... i'd fold. screw ya'll ... i really would lay down that 9 high flush ...

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I don't think you have that fold in you. If it makes you feel better, it's better that way.

[ QUOTE ]
... i just can't get over though how SURE i was he had the nuts. SOOOO sure. i felt it in my stomach and every bone of my body. i knew it ...

[/ QUOTE ]

[DcifrThs]

don't quote me out of context!!! that was the 2nd half of it and the result of a fold hinged on the preceeding assumptions. non-tricky, very predictable good player in on the button cold calls a raise after an early raise and 2 calls then caps the turn when the diamond hit after a fairly obviously flush 3bet and after betting the flop.

given all that i fold my 9 high flush. there is just nothing else this player can raise with here. tweak any of those assumptions and you're correct, i do NOT have that fold in me.

-Barron

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
...non-tricky, very predictable good player in on the button...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most of us would be much more open to a fold here if you had mentioned that in the original post; I was pretty much assuming a typical party opponent, against whom this would be a terrible fold from the little I've seen (and read on these boards) of faceless party players, the ole pause-'n-cap on the turn notwithstanding.