88 in MP, multiway all in decision

[PAUL-IN]

it's a $225 WSOP satellite, i'm chip leader with about 1900, everyone started with 1000 chips. i've taken some pots down uncontested, and just folded 99's to two all ins preflop. i get 88 in MP, blinds are 50-100, and decide to try to "short-circuit" any raise with a raise to 200. well that didn't work. brian haveson with about 475 goes all in two from me, then the button goes all in for about 725. SB folds, and BB goes all in for about 600. WOW. now my 88's don't look so hot, but i have a chance to win a +1800 triple knockout pot for a 525 call.

i knew i was 4.5:1 behind against at least one player, and maybe two others with overcards....what's the right decision? i figured that the moneys already in and it's pots like this that make or break you, but i had the luxury of having +1200 chips after the hand if i lost, and it's a triple knockout position, so i decided to call. is there any reason to fold this here?
results later

[t_perkin]

This to me is an easy fold.

The odds of your 88 being the highest PP are slim to none, and there are probably a good few overcards as well.

But I suppose there is an outside chance of them all having AK /images/graemlins/smile.gif

You are in a good chip position, there is no need to take risks

Foldem and wait - the usual 2+2 SnG mantra

Tim

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any reason to fold this here?
results later


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Estimate your EV on any reasonable combination of opponents cards.

eastbay

[37offsuit]

I'd take a shot here. It's hands like this that make or break a tournament, and you've still got plenty of chips if you miss. You have the chance to bust out 1/3 of the competition and even if you miss, two people are likely going out or at least being severely short stacked.

On the other hand, it's a very close situation in my view and I can see folding the hand as well. It's just a chance I take.

[Bubbagump]

I'm no expert but based on the information you provided, it sounds like a clear fold. Even if the 88's are the best hand at the moment, they are unlikely to hold up against 3 all in's. It is still early enough in the sattelite that you don't need to gamble with a hand like this to win.

Bubbagump

[t_perkin]

I must admit I ignored the fact that this was a satellite. This does make it a more favourable call. Putting people out and making yourself a really big stack does hold more benefit early in Sat. than a normal SnG.

But I still think this is a fold.

Tim

[LetsRock]

Without more on reads it's hard to say for sure. If it was vs. 2 others I probably take the chance, but it's hard to imagine that 88 will hold up vs. 3 others - they may be up against the wall, but all 3 calling your raise (and more) on prayers? Not likely. The first raiser may have put you on a steal, and the second may be figuring this hand is "the one to go with", but when you get the third caller, one of them probably has you beat without help.

I don't think this is an awful call, as it doesn't cripple you, but I think folding is the correct play here.

Would it make any difference if you hadn't "just folded 99"? Seems like you're a little to worried about laying down marginal hands. (why else would you tell us of your earlier laydown?)

[Earthy Tones]

If you call you almost have to assume that an 8 needs to fall for you to take the pot. In that case, you eliminate 3 opponents, and you are a monster stack.

However, if you muck, then at the very worst, the short stack wins the hand and 2 players are crippled, and thus essentially eliminated. Best case, bang, two players gone, AND you are still the big stack. This is an obvious fold.

ET

[PAUL-IN]

i knew that it was very likely that someone had a pair higher than mine, and i was at least up against 2-3overcards, but i decided to call, knowing that i'd have to hit a miracle board to win- but if i win, i'm basically locking up the 2K in lammers. i gambled.

1st all in had 44, button had KQ os, bb had QQ. ugh. but i rivered an 8 to bust them all and eventually win the tourney. whee!
/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[FletchJr.]

I'd call. He's getting close to 4:1 odds on this call PLus he's going to be a HUGE stack in the satelite which is important because this isn't a regualar SnG. Plus liike he stated he's still got lots of life left. I'd gamble it up here forsure.
I think the situation is getting the worst of it by a bit, but if he comes out ahead he should be at such a big advantage in the satelite which may infact warrant why he should gamble here. Just my opinion.

[Bozeman]

at 4:1 i still fold since there are a significant # of times you will hit an 8 and lose. And here you are only getting 3.4:1, and the best hands are likely in the hands of the largest allin stacks, so fold.

Craig