Any help appreciated...

Just doing some thinking and maybe someone here can offer me a good explanation to help me make sense of this.


Regarding pot odds.


After reading over and over again how important it is to pump the pot full of $$ when you are on a draw in order to get the correct pot odds I started to do a little work on my own comparing and contrasting pot odds for very few outs and pot odds for drawing hands where you have a ton of outs, but no hand that can bet for value.


For example. You have a 4 flush working with 2 streets left. You have 9 outs. In order for you to make a correct call you simply need there to be 5 BB's in the pot.


On the other hand - lets say you are trying to improve your pocket pair to a set and have 2 outs. Now you need to have something like 23 BB's in the pot to justify calling.


Why wouldn't the opposite be true. Why wouldn't you want to pump the pair to set so that you get the proper odds - or at least closer - rather than pump the flush draw where a very minimal number of bets is required for you to be making a correct call.


Am I completely off base with my logic here or what?


Maybe I'm just thinking this out too much - but not sure. I hope someone can enlighten me on this one.


Thanks!

You wouldn't want to pump a pair that is not likely a winner because you are not getting proper odds on the additional money you're putting into the pot. If you need 3 of a kind to win, and you have 2 outs with 47 cards unseen, your odds of making a set by the river are about 12:1, yet you can't possibly get a return of 12:1 on your additional bets.

when pumping on draws...your not looking at pot odds per se...your looking at implied odds. whats in the pot is irrelevant. the pot comes into play if your calling with the draw. and if you flop 4 to a flush, your usually seeing the river. unless the board pairs. then there may be a decision to make.


say you have a nut flush draw on the flop, since its about 2-1 to make your hand by the river, you only need 2 other players to pump the flop. 3+ is better though. since with only 2 its about even EV. once on the turn, youll need 4+ players to pump. of course you could semi bluff too, but thats a little different. look at the odds to make your hand against how many players are in. this will tell you whether to pump the draw or not. beware of outs that may not be there though, since someone else may have them. then adjust accordingly.


you dont pump a pair hoping to catch the 2 outer, thats not why you pump it. with 2 cards to come your around 11-1. there's not enough players on the table to pump this. you usually have an overpair and are charging the draws or knocking others out. its not considered a drawing hand.


hope this helps a little..


b

OK, so let's take a hypothetical hand and say you limp in MP with Js 10s. There are no pre-flop raisers and there are 4 in to see the flop.


Right now you have 2 BB's in the pot.


Flop comes Ks 10h 9c.


You limp into this hand hoping for the st8 or flush and the flop comes and you end up with middle pair / 2 outer flush / gutstr8 draw. How bad are you really off here though since your hand has been countefeited with the 10 popping up? How do you proceed?


How many outs do you normally calculate in this situation. Do you just look at what can happen for the NEXT round - I mean, you could still make a high flush but obviously a set of 10's or a str8 is what you have to be shooting for on the turn? Correct?


If this is the case you have your 4 outs for the gutshot str8 and 2 outs for the set of 10's giving you 6 total outs. You have about a 12% chance of hitting something on the turn.


My calculations say that you would have to have at least 8 BB's in the pot to justify a call, should it get bet to you.


Is this correct?


I'm not sure I get how you can relate odds without tying that to what's in the pot. I mean, isn't the whole purpose of odds to determine whether or not your call is worth what you would win in the pot?


Following our previous situation at this point there is only 2 BB's in the pot and let's say for the sake of argument you are last to act with a bet and 2 callers - so add another 1.5 BB to the pot for a total of 5.5 BB's.


Do you call / fold or raise here? Why?

at the bottom - clearly there would only be 3.5 BB's in the pot - but you guys already knew that. :-)

The advice I've gotten on top pair is to wait for the turn to raise. You're a dog with two cards to come, so don't build up a pot that somebody else is probably going to haul in. By pumping the pot pre-flop, you make their decision to call a proper one, whether they know it or not. Wait for the turn where you have more info. If the turn card doesn't complete the draw, then go for the CR or bet out.


On pumping draws, I'll pump nut draws all day long. I pumped a double gut-shot plus a flush draw yesterday that didn't get there. 15 outs for me, I'm raising. Of course, I want the correct amount of opponents for these.

"I'm not sure I get how you can relate odds without tying that to what's in the pot. I mean, isn't the whole purpose of odds to determine whether or not your call is worth what you would win in the pot?"


say you flop your nut flush draw on the button and utg bets, with two callers a raise would (assuming all three call the raise) put 3 more sb into a pot for one more of yours. since you are a 2-1 favorite you just "made" one sb with that move.


"If this is the case you have your 4 outs for the gutshot str8 and 2 outs for the set of 10's giving you 6 total outs. You have about a 12% chance of hitting something on the turn. "


you can count your back door flush as 2 more outs (its about a 24-1 shot i believe) so you have 8 outs.


"My calculations say that you would have to have at least 8 BB's in the pot to justify a call, should it get bet to you."


first off you are calling a SB on the flop so you only need 4bb in the pot to call for a 6 outer.

This situation is likely more complex than it first appears. With second pair here, its possible that you already have the best hand, in which case we're not looking at pumping a draw but rather betting for value and/or to protect your hand.


Conversely, having paired the T, your straight draw is now worth significantly less than you might have hoped -- if a Q comes, you're chopping the pot with any other singleton J, and drawing dead if anyone holds AJ. Additionally, if you pair your J, your two pair may be drawing to 4 outs against anyone holding a Q.

situation 1 figure at this time, your T is no good, your drawing. id want to see the turn cheap. figure you have an inside str8 plus outs to improve your draw

watch the betting behind you. if it comes back 2 bets to you, you have a little decision to make. 2 bets to you here, would be cutting it close. depends on who im playing with. but it can be reraised again behind you. thats a situation i dont want to be in. but with 1 bet, id call 1 bet and see the turn...

id figure 5-6 outs, since no preraise, chances are theres no AQ if you hit your hand. but you may still be splitting the pot. if little action, spiking a T may be good, which even if your behind to a str8 now, you have 10 outs, plus a possible 3 more to split the pot...maybe. but your not out of the woods yet with this hand...


basically your looking at anything to improve your hand on the turn. depends on the action after you check too. someone may already have it. yet some will play top pair like its the nuts. or someone may have 2 pair.


"I'm not sure I get how you can relate odds without tying that to what's in the pot. I mean, isn't the whole purpose of odds to determine whether or not your call is worth what you would win in the pot?"


for calling yes....but for pumping a draw, no. your seeing the turn anyway with certain draws, so its a matter of whether to pump it or not. when pumping you looking for +EV for elliciting bets. the only factor on that is the # of players in.


no way im folding if im last to act here, id either call, and see the turn cheap, or raise trying for the free card and information. id lean heavily toward just calling though. since with this hand, i dont really want to see a 3 bet behind me. but some players will only call, then check to you on the turn...know your players...


b

I don't recall reading in ANY published book that you should pump in order to get the odds to call later... That's good since its terrible advice...


In a pure sense (all cards are face up and everybody is reasonable) the criteria for calling is different than the criteria for betting/raising.


With one card to go you should CALL with your inferior hand when the chances of drawing out compare favorably to the size of the bet vis-a-vis the size of the pot, ... yaddy yaddy. You should BET only when you are going to win more often than the caller; the size of the pot has (almost) nothing to do with it.


Example: With 4 bets in the pot and A knows he's a 3:1 favorite he should bet since when called he wins 3 times in 4 or wins +.5bets per attempt. If B isn't getting the right odds to call then A wins immediately and "gains" whatever little chance B had to draw out, at A checked. B should call since he's only a 3:1 dog but is getting (after A's bet) 5:1 pot odds.


In a general sense, you should BET/RAISE when you figure to win the pot more often than the number of likely callers. So if you have a nut flush draw with two cards to go (you are a 2:1 underdog) and you [1] figure the flush will lose (to a full) just as often as missing the flush will win (you snag a winning Ace) and [2] know you will be calling later anyway, then you should bet/raise if you figure to get more than 2 calls on average. This is NOT "pumping to get the odds later", this is betting for value. If you NEED to make the pot bigger in order to justify calling later, then you are actually MORE than a 2:1 underdog since you should only draw one (cheap) card.


Flailing away with a 2-outer that you need to win is completely out-of-the-question. You are too far behind and do MUCH better folding: lets not take several HUGE -EV losses on raises just to be able to make one marginal +EV call later.


- Louie