Where can I fold this?

[TimTimSalabim]

I think I'm becoming a fish. Well, maybe not that bad, but I think I played this particular tournament hand poorly, so I'm looking for advice. There are about 200 out of 800 entrants left, so the remaining players are decent to good. I don't have a good read on the players, because I have been paying most of my attention to a cash game I'm playing (ah, the perils of playing online). I'm down to T1435 and the blinds are up to 100-200, so I'm fairly desperate to win a pot, which may have adversely affected my ability to play the hand as objectively as I would have with lots of chips or in a cash game. Anyway, here are the gory details:

Party Poker Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind t200 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1055)
UTG+1 (t6011)
UTG+2 (t2393)
MP1 (t4952)
MP2 (t614)
MP3 (t4741)
CO (t5263)
Button (t6885)
SB (t2885)
Hero (t1435)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls.

I'm almost tempted to raise here, except it's not going to get me headsup anyway, and I don't have a lot of chips to power through the hand, not to mention being out of position, so I just call and see how the flop comes out.

Flop: (6.50 SB, t1300) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, UTG+2 raises, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Here's where I think I started growing gills. In retrospect, I think I should have folded. I've got TP/TK and a backdoor flush draw, but there are 3 cards in the playing zone, which makes tons of made hands and draws that beat me, and there's a bet and a raise. Maybe if I'm lucky, both of them are on a draw, but my gut tells me I'm already way behind. In a cash game, I'd probably be done with this hand. But since I don't have many chips left, and I can improve this hand, I figured a call made sense. Am I wrong?


Turn: (6.25 BB, t2500) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Now I've picked up a nut-flush draw, so I think this street is a nobrainer call.


River: (9.25 BB, t3700) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero calls t235 (All-In), UTG+1 calls.

Ok, here's the second time I probably should have folded. But with only T235, it's going to be very difficult to make a comeback unless I get really lucky. And hey, I can beat a bluff(and not much else). So I throw it in.

What do you think, does this deserve the famous "misplayed on every street"?



Final Pot: 11.8375 BB (t4735)

Results in white below: <font color="white">
Hero shows Ac Qh (one pair, queens).
UTG+1 shows Ad Ah (one pair, aces).
UTG+2 shows Jh Kh (straight, king high).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins 11.83 BB (t4735). </font>

[TimTimSalabim]

On reviewing this after I posted it, I may have answered my own question. My fishiest play was probably calling preflop, since my AQo is likely dominated by UTG+1. And even though I'm getting 5 1/2 to 1 on my call, I won't know what flop I like.

And if I was planning to call the river unimproved, I should have raised the turn. Hmmm, looks like I *did* misplay it on every street.

[adanthar]

How do you 'know' you're dominated to this raise? At this stage of the tournament, he's equally likely to be raising AJ or 88. I'd put the caller on AQ or lower or a medium pair (and be wrong because he's a moron.) But for 5:1, this call preflop isn't even close. Whether to raise it is another story, and I think I agree that 3 betting this shortstacked when they won't fold, giving them odds to chase on the flop, is a bad move...but in any case, you have to at least call.

On the flop, there's a bet and a raise, which means one of three things: the PF raiser is auto-betting and the caller has a flush or str8 draw, the PF raiser is auto-betting and the caller has top pair (likely AQ), or, the PF raiser is auto-betting and the caller is raising a big hand that has you beat right now but you still have 3-4 worst case combined outs for (a backdoor flush/str8/runner runner FH). I wouldn't even have considered KJ, QT, etc. because he'd have to be an idiot to call that and there's 200 people left so he's probably sane (oops.)

Meanwhile, you have 1200 chips left and you're wondering whether to call TPTK? I'd probably 3-bet to try to fold the original raiser and clean up some outs (or a split pot if the raiser himself had AQ; certainly, hands like AK and JJ will do all of this and still possibly fold to a 3 bet) but I would never fold unless you're 100% dead certain you're up against a set. You *cannot* know that here so you have to press on. Besides, you've just over 6 BB left; how certain are you that the next hand, on which you HAVE TO go all in with, is going to be better than TPTK on this flop right now?

The turn and river play themselves. If you fold this river with 200 chips left getting 10:1 that TPTK is good you've got serious work to do.

The outcome is unfortunate but without a very significant read on both players there's no way you can play this differently.

[wrongpond]

I don't agree with that, I think that at this stage in the tournament he is dominated by this raise. Utg+1 has done better then half the field, and wants to beat the other half as well, he's not going to raise pre-flop in early position with anything less then our hero's hand and I don't even think he'd do that unless he's pretty aggressive. I think with the size of stack he's got, our hero can find a better pot to get into then one that's raised from early position pre-flop, and he's holding unsuited cards that judging from the pre-flop action probably aren't live!

[adanthar]

Really? Hero is shortstacked and UTG+1 has 6K chips. In that position, with no one else at the table eager to tangle with me and trying to steal on the very conveniently 6xBB'd small stack, I raise all pairs 88 and up (and sometimes 7's and 6's), AJo+, KQs (maybe KQo if the table is tight) and the occasional ATs. I may be wrong to go that low, but I don't think I'm *that* wrong and as a big stack approaching the bubble it's really time to steal now.

Even if he's tighter than I am, though, he'll probably open raise 99 and certainly raise TT/JJ/AQ PF. Hero is a coin flip to all of those, 30% against QQ or KK, and 25% against AK. The only hand he's really dominated by is aces, and he's getting 5:1 to call as a short stack when he *holds* one of the A's. Moreover, the call in front is probably not AK (that would be 3 bet); in a worst case scenario, it's AQ, but other than that, there's a pretty high chance it's a medium pair. (At Party, it can also be KQs, Axs, a small pair, AJ, or one of a dozen other things you tie or dominate. Here, it turned out to be the whopping KJs; I rest my case.)

Here's what happens if the other guy is holding *anything* other than aces:

(worst case, AK)
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ad 274828 20.05 1041815 76.00 54111 3.95 0.220
Kc Jc 377510 27.54 980373 71.52 12871 0.94 0.279
Ks Ah 657233 47.95 652338 47.59 61183 4.46 0.501

(Kings)
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ad 356449 26.00 1010030 73.68 4275 0.31 0.261
Kc Jc 183212 13.37 1175738 85.77 11804 0.86 0.137
Ks Kh 819289 59.77 539661 39.37 11804 0.86 0.601

(Jacks)
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ad 500802 36.53 864324 63.05 5628 0.41 0.367
Kc Jc 398432 29.07 951804 69.44 20518 1.50 0.297
Js Jd 451002 32.90 899234 65.60 20518 1.50 0.336

Granted, you don't make marginal calls in a tournament, but he's committing 200 chips to see a flop with a very good hand, not his entire stack; if the flop is rags or even KQx and there's a bet and call/AKx and there's a bet and raise in front, it's an easy fold, end of story.

Once he flops top pair, he's got to proceed unless he has a read that's a lot better than the one he does have. If the short stack has been playing very tight/passive and suddenly comes to life, I'd be a lot closer to assuming a set and folding, but here, you can't put anything on him at all.