Call or fold with AAA on the turn?

After thinking about my last few posts, and in trying to figure out my leaks, I thought I would post this hand. I want to know should I have laid it down on the turn or not.


The setup - this was live play, in a home game. I am by far the most knowledgable holdem player there (which is scary, I know!). Most guys have only played it once or twice ever. We are six handed playing 2/4. I am in the BB and get AA (suits are unimportant)


ALL CALL to ME, I raise. ALL CALL!


*** FLOP **** A 8 K


Checked to me, I bet. MP player, Button, and SB call.


TURN *** J {A 8 K}


Checked to me, I bet, MP folds, Button raises, SB folds, I reraise, Button Reraises!


I stop and look and start thinking a set, but then I see the straight (QT) Damn! I call his last reraise -- praying for the board to pair or for the case Ace. I figure I have 10 outs.


My question to you guys - with this much in the pot do you fold to the straight? Especially, knowing that the player you are against will NOT bluff?


Results--

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*** River *** K! {A 8 K J}


I bet, he calls


I show Aces full, he flips over QT. I take down a nice pot.


Again, should I have folded to a made straight with 10 outs? I can't imagine folding it, but, like I said, I am questioning it all!


Thanks,


PaulF

Folding on the turn is totally absurd. However, you are most likely behind. You don't say how many ppl are playing, so I don't know pot odds -- but just the heads up action has got to make it close to drawing for a boat.


People that don't play hold'em don't know the strength of trips/2-pair. They know str8s and flushes. Thus, if they are raising with this board, I'd say (in homegames with inexperienced players) they have Q10 95% of the time. 5% of the time they have Q9 and misread the board. You don't mention suits, so I figure it was rainbow.


Lastly, check-raise the river. As already said, 95% of the time they have a str8. They will stop paying attention to the board once they make their str8. Check-raise.

Paul,


You would only need 4 big bets in the pot here to call, even if your opponent showed you QT and dared you not to do it. When you finally realize that you may be against a straight, there are about 15 big bets in there. Clearly, you must call in this situation every time.


Never fold here. Never, Never, Never.


If the river does not pair the board, you should not fold but check and call for the times that you have the better set. This pot is simply too big to fold.


Having a set (which is different than trips) is one of the nicest things to have in hold'em. When you flop one, especially the best one, figure out the best way to get the most money into the pot right then and there. 90% of the time this means betting at the first opportunity.


Nice win.


Matt

My question to you guys - with this much in the pot do you fold to the straight?


I challenge you to answer the question yourself and post it.


Calculate precisely how many big bets are in the pot. Then, calculate what % of the time you will improve to beat a straight. Then, tell us whether you have sufficient pot odds to call against an opponent who is 100% certain to hold the nut straight.

I know that the hand seems silly to even bring up, but after a string of losses and some really bad decisions on my part, I am questioning everything. One weakness I have identified, is that I have a tendancy to make bad turn calls in hopes of a river miracle. (See previous posts) I now realize that this was not one of those times! :-)


Anyway, thanks for the feedback!


PaulF

Here's my shot at it.


6 BB's preflop 2 additional BB's in the pot post-flop for a total of 8 BB's.


You do have 10 outs to make your hand (1 A, 3 8's, 3 J's, 3 K's) for A's full or a 4 kind A's.


Given this information...


You have roughly a 20% chance of making your hand on the river.


You need to pot to be $20 or so to justify a call here - only considering pot odds.


With 8 BB's in the pot you are looking at $32 in the pot so...


I would call.

It's wrong - didnt' factor in the bets on the turn, but not that it mattered any way - with all those turn bets in there, just makes it an easier call.


6 BB's pre-flop

2 BB's post-flop

6 BB's at the turn with me left to call....


Total of 14 BB's in the pot ($56)


I have a total of 10 outs - (1 A, 3 8's, 3 J's, 3 K's) to make A's full or 4 kind A's.


This means I have a 20% chance (10*2) of improving my hand to beat a possible str8 on the board.


20 into 100 = 5 times 5-1=4*(4 BB) = $16


At this point I need $16 in the pot to justify a call when there is $56 in the pot. Easy call.


Just goes to show you how nearly impossible it is to lay down a set no matter what's out there.

Here is a trick I read on some site to makethese decisions quickly. You need to know how many big bets are in teh pot. Online it's easy. Live you have to keep track. Multiply that by the number of outs you have and if it's greater than the cards that are left in the deck you make the call.


SO for example 8 bb's in the pot, you have 6 clean outs, the number is 48, there are 46 unknown cards (5 - your 2 - 4 on board) so you have odds. With only 7 bb's in the pot you would not have odds.


I don't know if this works for you but I find it a nice shortcut for close decisions.


In your example it's a no-brainer. At the time you faced your decision I count 15 bb's in the pot. 10 outs. Even with 5 bb's it's a call.