Situational Question in SNGs

[fat_nutz]

I'm wondering what folks generally do when they catch a pair on the flop but the other two cards pair as well (ie, you hold AJ and flop comes J88). Late in a SNG, this is more or less a no-brainer for me, I play it pretty aggressively. Early in the SNG, I tend to lay it down when raised or especially re-raised, but several times I've seen weaker hands win the pot (with no 8). For example, this scenario happened very recently:

***** Hand History for Game 550198027 *****
30/60 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 3368248) - Sat Apr 24 19:34:03 EDT 2004
Table Table 11278 (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: T_Waters (270)
Seat 5: JellyJr (405)
Seat 6: michaka5555 (965)
Seat 7: brianshie186 (740)
Seat 8: baitzm (3125)
Seat 9: fat_nutz (1445)
Seat 10: ReneRuch (1050)
brianshie186 posts small blind (15)
baitzm posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to fat_nutz [ Ac, Jh ]
fat_nutz calls (30)
ReneRuch folds.
T_Waters folds.
JellyJr folds.
michaka5555 folds.
brianshie186 calls (15)
baitzm checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8c, 8s, Jd ]
brianshie186 bets (75)
baitzm raises (300) to 300
fat_nutz folds.
brianshie186 calls (225)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 5s ]
brianshie186 checks.
baitzm bets (1600)
brianshie186 calls (410)
brianshie186 is all-In.
** Dealing River ** : [ 8h ]
Creating Main Pot with $1510 with brianshie186
** Summary **
Main Pot: 1510 | Side Pot 1: 1190
Board: [ 8c 8s Jd 5s 8h ]
T_Waters balance 270, didn't bet (folded)
JellyJr balance 405, didn't bet (folded)
michaka5555 balance 965, didn't bet (folded)
brianshie186 balance 755, bet 740, collected 755, net +15 [ Js Qh ] [ a full house, Eights full of jacks -- Js,Jd,8c,8s,8h ]
baitzm balance 3140, bet 1930, collected 1945, net +15 [ Jc Kd ] [ a full house, Eights full of jacks -- Jc,Jd,8c,8s,8h ]
fat_nutz balance 1415, lost 30 (folded)
ReneRuch balance 1050, didn't bet (folded)


As it turned out, I didn't lose much by folding, but if the river hadn't filled everyone up, my hand would've been best had I played it out.

So, do folks have a general philosophy about this situation? I find it very tricky.

[DougBrennan]

Like most general questions, the answer to this question is...wait for it...
"it depends."

There. That solves your problem. doesn't it? /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Alright, enough wise-ass. I agree, this is not the easiest of situations. Some of the factors I try to account for are:

How many people are in the pot? there are only two remaining of the paired cards, what's the rough statistical probability that one is out there?

What card was paired? i.e. what is the likliehood someone chose to play with that card? if the paired card is a duece, and all the palyers are solid, the chances someone played a duece are small

What is the game texture and what was the betting? this really amounts to your reads on the players left in the hand.

There are other considerations I'm sure, but these are the ones that spring quickly to mind, for me. I do agree that with a paired board, you need to proceed with caution.

Doug

[Tom Bayes]

I agree that this is a situation where you want to be cautious early in the SNG. Obviously the odds are much better that someone has the set at a full/near-full table. Also, if you feel you can outplay most of your competition at your level of SNG, why risk blowing your stack here?

Late in the SNG, not only is it less likely that someone else has the set, but often the blinds are high enough that you are pretty much forced to play this type of hand aggressively, particularly if you are short-stacked. It's hard to put out a "feeler" bet when any virtually any raise leaves you pot-committed.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
if the paired card is a duece, and all the palyers are solid, the chances someone played a duece are small

[/ QUOTE ]

This is generally true, but not in this case since his opponents are the SB and BB in an unraised pot.

A deuce is at least as likely as an ace. Probably more likely, actually, since many hands with an ace would have raised.

If he had opened for 3xBB UTG and been called by the SB and BB, *then* the odds of a deuce (or an 8 in this case) would have decreased considerably from the raw statistical probability.

(I know you know all this, Doug, but the general guidelines in your post didn't explicitly say it. /images/graemlins/wink.gif )

Later,
Che