Should I fire the last barrel?

[asdf1234]

Finishing up first lap of table, so no solid reads yet.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero bets, Button calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (5.75 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players) </font>
Hero...

[blackaces13]

Probably not. You have the nut-no pair and it seems that anything he'd be calling you with thus far he's committed to at least showdown unless he was on a draw that you'd beat anyway.

The river is a complete blank. What could he have called with on the turn that he won't call with on the river that you're not ahead of anyway? He seems like he has a 9 and is resigned to call you down IMHO.

[asdf1234]

Do you call a river bet?

[blackaces13]

That's exactly what I asked myself right after I responded to your original post.

The only thing you can hope for in this spot is that he had a worse spade draw than you did and that he decided to bluff at the pot. Or maybe that he even had overcards with no Jack, but this seems very unlikely to me as he would likely take a free showdown.

Your pot odds in the event of a river bet from your opponent are 6.75:1 so the question is would he bluff with a weaker hand than yours 1 in 7.75 times or more. With no read my gut tells me that the answer to this as based on a typical 2/4 Party player would be no and that you would save money by folding but that's only my opinion.

[sthief09]

I check and call a bet.

[Bob T.]

Well, it is party 2-4 so who knows what they hold.

Should you bet? Well, if it is a weak player, you are probably ahead, but weak players, might call until the turn, but they rarely call on the river with Ace high. You might get called by a tough player, but would a tough player coldcall, and then just call to the river with a worse Ace high? Right, probably not, so betting then won't help either.

The advantages if you bet, are if a weak player folds, then you don't have to show your hand. On the other hand, if the button is a tough player, then if you bet, and are called, showing your hand will get you more calls in the future. Just make the adjustment, and value bet more often for the rest of the day.

Finally, if you check, some opponents will bet regardless of what they are holding, so, you might be able to win a little more, by check/calling, then you would if you bet out.

I don't think that there is a clearcut answer here, but depending on your opponents tendencies you could play it any of three different ways, and get the best result.
But we don't know there tendencies yet, so ...

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.

[asdf1234]

I bet, he folded.