Ptracker stats are abbysmal. I need help bad =(

[ZeeJustin]

I have been running horribly in full ring games. I have never done well at them, and I have no clue why. I can crush the 200+15 SNG's, the 15/30 6 max, and even multis. But when it comes to 15/30 and 30/60 10 handed, I can't win a dime. My opponents are very very dim, and I find it embarassing that I'm not winning, but I'm going through a 300-350 BB downswing. And of course, downswings feel far far worse when they are not preceeded by upswings.

The following stats are all the full table stats I have logged since the 10th. My stats before that date aren't any better, but are in a seperate ptracker database.

http://www.zeejustin.com/images/ptrackstats.jpg

For the record, I seriously doubt that I'm not good enough to beat the 30/60 game, and practically posotive that my play is good enough to beat the 15/30, but this has just been abbysmal. Luckily, I have built up a strong bankroll, but my confidence is falling rapidly as well.

Please give me any pointers you can, every bit of speculation is appreciated.

Edit: Ok, got the UBB code working now

[Vehn]

You're playing too tight and you're not folding your SB to steals enough.

[Nightwish]

Nothing in those stats looks particularly out of line. However, 5000 hands of 15/30 is not anywhere close to anything that would even resemble statistical significance. So, while it's possible that you're a really poor postflop player (your preflop stats look fine), it's also possible that you're just on a really horrible downswing. If this downswing is starting to affect your confidence and gameplay, it might be a good idea to drop back down to 10/20 or 5/10, book a few solid wins, and then move up when your confidence is back.

[astroglide]

what vehn said. too low vpip, too high folding blinds. blind stealing attempt seems very high for your vpip, so you could be losing a lot going too far there. preflop raise is low for this game.

[bicyclekick]

Losing 3500 at 15/30 is nothing. You cn'at really see it as 350 bb cause 6000+ of that was at 30/60...so you're really looking at a 200BB drop which isn't anything to get OVERLY worked up about.

I say stay away from 30/60 until you feel 'good' again. If you drop another 3000 at 15/30 I'd drop back to 3/6 or something, lol.

[DcifrThs]

ZeeJustin,

I've been around you a bit lately in the 15/30 and watching the 30/60. i've noticed you have been taking a bit of a beating in both games and wondered why. i did not see anything specifically even close to bad in your play except one brief period i watched seemed that you were a bit loose maybe tilting or just getting good series of starters. but now i see from the stats it might also have been the late position first in raises that made me think that.

another curious thing is the "folded to BB steal attempt" column. in 15/30, of the times you call in the sb after all fold and button raises you fold 71% of the time. but in 30/60, you fold only 55% of the time. to me, this means in 30/60 you feel the bb is stealing with a higher likelihood than in 15/30 (all cards being equal, and players in bb being equal, which they likely aren't) and are confident enough to follow through with that belief. in 15/30 you may have just given up mentally already in the sb when the bb raises. or i just don't know but that column is odd. i don't think there should be a 29% decrease in folds as the limits go up one level (on party, so thats not including 20/40, 25/50 which aren't spread there). either you're too loose in one or too tight in the other but both are highly unlikely to be significant, and tightly bound within their confidence intervals given the sample, and have you be playing correctly in both limits.

just an opinion and i may be way off. take care and i wish you nothing but the very best in your games ahead.
-Barron

[Vehn]

I think he's overdefending his SB, not underdefending. I throw away my SB to a steal 85% of the time at 15/30.

[danj]

Your big blind defense should be at 50% or little lower - I would go to your Position tab to see how much you are losing from your blinds - at the limits you are playing, blind play is more important than people talk about - in fact, not many people seem to talk about it at all. For example, I make 2BB/hr & I attribute the higher rate in large part due to my blind play - I make 66% of my total BB & SB back in wins and I fold 48% of the time to BB steal attempts. If I played against you and saw your stats, I would raise your blinds without looking at my cards 100% of the time. I fold my SB at a much higher rate depending on the blind structure.

In addition, your Won$AtSD% is out of line especially at the 30/60 level. Although it appears that the Went To SC% is in line - the Won$AtSD% is completely out of line - you should be at 60% +/-4%. That tells me either you're not reading your players correctly or you're running bad. My guess is that you're paying off too many times and you're laying down too many hands on the flop or turn to aggressive players. Evaluate your post-flop play - again, if I were to guess, you go to far with hands that you raise with preflop and you fold too many hands on the flop and turn to aggressive players - my guess is that your %s are a reflection of your short-handed style and experience. Hope this helps.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Justin,

I know I play a different game from a lot here, but I think your W$SD is too low. I personally think anything under 65% is too low, but I know most disagree so this is just my oh two.

GoT

[jerome baker]

"I personally think anything under 65% is too low, but I know most disagree so this is just my oh two. "

damn. thats crazy. how many hands do u have on ptrack? i personally think 65% is really high. btw, what is your went to SD?

[Bartholow]

I don't think most of the responses so far have been very helpful. Most people seem to be comparing their PT stats to yours, which doesn't work that well because there are multiple strategies or play styles which work, but generally have to be internally consistent. Additionally your stats are not enough to be really statistically significant, and in most cases we don't know whether the other poster's are either. Finally, the stats in PT are pretty focused on preflop play, which might not be the problem. And you could just be running bad.

I know winning players who have that kind of VP$IP, but most (including myself) seem to play a bit looser. Personally my W$SD is pretty close to yours, and hearing people talk about 65% makes me think they are folding too many winners - but it could be a style issue.

[Inthacup]

Zee,

Please play 20,000 hands at each and get back to us. A good run over the course of the next 15-18k hands will change your stats significantly. Till then, any input/replies are meaningless. I highly doubt you're a loser at these limits. Over my last 13k hands, I've been in the red. It happens.



Cup

[Lori]

The totally out of line stat is the wins at showdown in 30/60.
Look through all your showdown hands at that level and see why it is, you are good enough to analyse your own play so I won't speculate further.

GoT's number is too high in my opinion, but you should be looking at 53-58%

Lori

[Lori]

One thing about a small sample size is that you can analyse a whole bunch of things to make sure it is variance and not tilt/idocy/pressure before it gets out of line.

Although the W/L figure doesn't converge quickly, things like vp$ip converge extremely fast so the 'is my style ok' type question is still relevant.

While the database is still small, it will do ZJ no harm at all to analyse (as I just mentioned) all the 30/60 hands that went to showdown and work out if the low % (It is a higher variance stat) is a problem or a swing.

Lori

[OrangeHeat]

Hi ZJ,

I have played with a couple of times the last couple of nights you may be playing a little too tight post-flop and I think you need some work on stealing.

From your stats (more hands needed caveat applies here)- you are trying to steal the blinds a little too much. Blinds are defended much more aggressively in the 15/30 - alot of the players will throw in three-bets and bluff checkraises, three bet bluffs, etc..can be very costly when you are stealing "light" in a steal position. You may want to shore up your stealing hand requirements. I had to do the same recently. This is very table dependent - some you can steal almost every time, some never, more hands in your database may make this clearer.

350 is a big swing but I wouldn't worry too much I have had multiple 200 BB swings in this game playing four tables. I think Astroglide has had quite a few too.

Gl,

Orange

[DrSavage]

I'll say that all those stats look normal to me. Probably the problem is in your postflop play (since all these stats just show preflop). Or maybe there's no problem at all and you just had a bad run.

[astroglide]

i'm 68% sb, 61% bb

[astroglide]

hm i'm 40.39% wtsd, 50.34% w$sd

[ZeeJustin]

Thanks a lot for the resonses. Just a few things.
1) The sample size is way too small for some of the numbers to be analyzed properly. For others, the sample size is plenty big. If there are significant differences between 15/30 and 30/60 stats, it is most likely a sign that the sample size is too small for that specific stat (Won$atSD especialy. Don't forget, this number will be lower than average if im running bad).

2. The data listed is for all hands played since the 10th. The 300-350BB figure is an approximation including hands played this year, before the 10th as well.

3. I should have mentioned this earlier, but when it's folded to me outside of EP, I use the exact same preflop standards I use at 6 max tables (fold ATo 3 off the button, raise AJo, etc.) Do I need to tighten this up since it is a full table?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
3. I should have mentioned this earlier, but when it's folded to me outside of EP, I use the exact same preflop standards I use at 6 max tables (fold ATo 3 off the button, raise AJo, etc.) Do I need to tighten this up since it is a full table?


[/ QUOTE ]

if you're feeling apprehensive about your performance, tighten up a notch. even AJ isn't that great if you're not at the top of your game or feel overwhelmed by recent downswings.

yes, you'll end up giving up a little bit here but you'll be right back on the horse after a few winning sessions.

good luck to you
-Barron

[ZeeJustin]

I'm currently seeing 16.5% of flops. Are you really sure that you think I should tighten up?

[MarkD]

This is why I don't understand astro's advice to loosen up. To me it doesn't appear that Zee is playing abnormally tight.

Sounds like astro plays quite a few more hands and goes to showdown ~40%. Both of these things surprise me and since I respect his advice and I assume he plays well and does well I am a little surprised by these statements. It's got me thinking that I play too tight and don't go to the showdown enough (I thought I went too often personally).

[The Dude]

For how tight you're playing, your pfr% is too low. In fact, your pfr% is too low even if you're playing 20% of your hands.

AJs in EP is an example of a hand you should be raising with that you're not.

[MarkD]

Is that VI$P or your Saw All Flops %?

[MarkD]

Umm... I raise AJs and similar hands in EP (AJo as well) and my PFR is less than his. What is the PFR% supposed to be at? I was quite happy with mine at around 8.5-9.0.

[astroglide]

mine is around 11

[SinCityGuy]

ZJ,

Could you please post your AF (aggression factor) stats for 15/30? That might help with the analysis.

[Bartholow]

Believe it or not, there is more than one way to beat this game. Trying to make your stats conform to the other good players is unlikely to really help you, ZJ. Not saying there aren't some clues there, but I think the hands you've been posting are much more useful than the pokertracker stats.

BTW, my PFR% is around 11 too /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

[mikelow]

Take some time off from the game and do some serious evaluation. It looks like that you can eat up shorthanded games, so stick to those.

Play only what you can beat.

[astroglide]

i totally agree, but i think some truth can be found in the correlations. e.g. vpip + blind defense + preflop raise + wtsd + w$sd. it could very well be "pluggable" if somebody is close to what a winning player is reporting.

[NYplayer]

If you go to session notes and more detail they have standard deviation numbers per 100 hands. what does your number look like? How about some other players? Mine is at 17.5 BBs and I'm wondering how this compares.

[Bartholow]

Mine is at 26.5 BB. I envy you.

[nykenny]

zee,

before i read the others' responses, i'd like to say that maybe losing in a 7700-hands-period shouldn't be bad enough for you to be discouraged. afterall, if you are 4-tabling like i suspect you to be doing, that is just about 40 hours.

since you have done well in the past, there is no reason that you can't expect the same for the future. However, maybe, just maybe, you should stick to your best games for now (SNG, multi, 6max, etc) and attack the 15-30 rings and 30-60 rings after you regain some monentum and confidence.

By the way, i DO think that 15-30 / 30-60 rings are DIFFERENT games from SNG, 6MAX. though they are all called "Texas Hold'em".

best wishes,

Kenny

[SoBeDude]

Mine is 15.5 BB/100

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
AJs in EP is an example of a hand you should be raising with that you're not.

[/ QUOTE ]

do people raise with AJs EP all the time? and should they? and why should they?

Kenny

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
(fold ATo 3 off the button, raise AJo, etc.) Do I need to tighten this up since it is a full table?

[/ QUOTE ]

if u feel the need to tighten this up, u are either playing too tight, or the table is way too aggressive. i'd say the ATo is a hand playable 3 off the button in party 15-30 ring games...

Kenny

[SoBeDude]

I think you are much too tight preflop.

I see over 19% of the flops, and several other winning players I know are in that area as well.

My 'Won $ at SD' is only a little higher than yours; 56%

But I'm playing almost 1/3rd more starters than you. Thats significant. Look at it this way. I'm playing more than 4 more hands per 100 played. thats 400 hands per 10,000. So that comes to 22.4 more pots I scoop in every 1,000 hands played, 224 more pots per 10,000 hands...

Also for you to be losing that much playing so few hands I'd say you are not aggressive enough with your winners, and you are going too far with your losers.

Good luck,

-Scott

[DcifrThs]

in a tight game limp. its a hand that doesn't do well against a 3 bettor and you'd like to get more calls from the tighties to open up the pot for you.

in a loose game i raise with this hand since it does well in that spot and it is a decent hand.

personally, playing party 15/30 i raise about 60/40 maybe more with AJs and ALWAYS raise AQs and AQ. the reason to raise more frequently in these party games is that its a hand that is much better than most people's starters, even the ones the cold call with. one reason to limp in the games is that it invites more limpers, reduces the probability of calling 2more cold out of position, and keeps people playing totally dominated hands against you.

just some thoughts
-Barron

[Ponks]

Mines at 16.44 per 100

Ponks

[mosta]

[ QUOTE ]
mine is around 11

[/ QUOTE ]

I wonder where the difference comes from between the 9% and the 11% players. Actually a friend of mine with years more experience does very well at party 15-30 and his PFR is around 6% (same as mine at party 5-T full table). Is the difference from raising AJo/KJs/88 from early position, or from three-betting to isolate with medium pocket pairs, or from raising limpers with anything you're going to play on the button even if it's not premium (A9o, JQs, 55...QTo?)--just some possibilities that occur to me. to get to the bottom of it people would have to lay out and compare their position stats I guess...

[astroglide]

i generally threebet the hell out of people from the button or the blinds heads up. i'll also raise hands like 66 vs an ep limper if it's folded around to me in the sb.

[Vee Quiva]

I don't think you confirmed this in the thread, so are you playing multiple tables at the same time?

If you are, my guess is you are not reading your opponets well enough. Pre flop looks tight, but that's ok. I can't imagine getting beat that much after the flop unless you are staying in too many pots where you are drawing thin.

Try just playing one table, referring to your notes, and really concentrating a couple of sessions. I would bet that you will end up with a couple of very profitable sessions if you are really focused on one table.

[ActionBob]

17.769 BB per 100 hands.

-ActionBob