Shorthanded Omaha/8 hand...to bet or not to bet?

[BSCwik]

I'm playing at a 6-way 5/10 Omaha/8 table, blinds at 2/5, the game is fairly loose-passive, though players will bet/raise with the nuts of course. I hold A/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif in the SB. Three call and one fold to me, I call (1st ?, would you have called this?). Flop comes Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. People are betting with drawing hands, so I check. Original BB bets, two callers behind, I raise, everyone calls. Here I put them on either 9T, TK, or /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw with potentially a backdoor low. Turn comes K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Since I figure someone for perhaps 9T, and would raise me, I check. Original BB checks, quick bet from the third player in. The button now raises, I call, Orig. BB folds. River comes a low /images/graemlins/heart.gif , it checks around (I was prepared to fold since the board didn't pair). Of the other two players in, the next in position has 9T, the button has T/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif9A (wins with the flush, had broadway on the turn). I shared this with a friend, and even though I asserted that I was 80% sure that one of the other three players in the pot had hit their straight on the turn (an arbitrary # I chose, but I was relatively confident someone had it), I still should have bet my set of queens on the turn, since with the size of the pot there and even a 20% chance that I was still winning, and could still pick up the best hand even if trailing. Since I had put people on 9T, TK, or a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw on the flop (slight possibility of backdoor low), I say that I check here, and someone will probably bet regardless. Should I have bet the turn, or was I right to check-call (and possibly wrong to call two bets cold, especially with the king on board)?

[Buzz]

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1st ?, would you have called this?

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BSCwik - Yes. I don't think the hand is worth a raise. Most of the time you'll miss the flop. But it certainly seems worth half of a small bet.

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People are betting with drawing hands, so I check.

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Okay. Going for the check raise is fine so long as someone bets and so long as you get at least three callers for your check-raise.

There is also a case to be made for betting in a straight forward manner here.

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BB bets, two callers behind, I raise, everyone calls.

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Right. Now if the board just pairs for you everything will be fine.

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Here I put them on either 9T, TK, or /images/graemlins/diamond.gif draw with potentially a backdoor low.

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Reasonable. Someone could have that plus a pair of kings or even (but probably not) a pair of aces.

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Turn comes K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

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Yikes. Not a good card for you at all. Now ten cards pair the board, but the three kings are very dangerous for you. (If the board pairs with kings, someone may well have a better full house than you). Even if the board pairs with something else someone might have started with a pesky pair of kings. A straight is probable and roughly half the rest of the deck (18/34) makes someone a possible flush. Yikes.

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I check.

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Okay.

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Original BB checks, quick bet from the third player in. The button now raises, I call, Orig. BB folds.

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My guess is the button holds AT, probably with a flush re-draw. If I'm keeping track correctly, there were 13 small bets in the pot after the 2nd betting round. Assuming no more raising, if BB calls you'll be getting a bit better than 6 to 1 pot odds. If BB folds, you'll be getting about 5 to 1 pot odds.

You should also be able to get a bet or two from made straights or flushes if the board pairs on the river. So let's estimate the implied pot odds as about 7 to 1 if BB calls and about 6 to 1 if BB doesn't.

At this point, your hand odds are vague. 37 to 7, if you don't count the kings as outs and 34 to 10 if you do. Assuming no more raises this round, the odds of making a winning hand are roughly 5.3 to 1 or 3.4 to 1 against you. Figured somewhere in between the two extremes, let's estimate your hand odds as about 4.5 to 1 against you.

All that mumbo jumbo to see if you have odds to call the double bet. If you feel nobody will re-raise, looks like you do, whether or not BB calls.

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I call, Orig. BB folds.

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Okay, you end up getting about 6 to 1 implied pot odds here.

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River comes a low /images/graemlins/heart.gif, it checks around (I was prepared to fold since the board didn't pair).

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Bad luck. Your action and intent seem reasonable to me. Some would bluff here, representing the nut flush, but I think you'll get called if you do.

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the button has T/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif9A (wins with the flush, had broadway on the turn). Should I have bet the turn, or was I right to check-call

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You didn't have favorable odds to bet the turn. You did have favorable odds to call, but you did't have favorable odds to bet or raise.

In my humble opinion, you played correctly on the turn and the river. And although I would not gone for the check-raise on the flop, it turns out you played correctly (with the odds) there too.

It was just one of those things.
Just one of those Omaha swings.
A trip to the moon on gossamer wings.
Just one of those things.

Buzz