implied odds on the gutshot (out of position)?

[blockafor]

Dealt 53o in BB.
UTG+1, CO-1, button, and SB all limp.
I see the free flop and its: A72 rainbow. UTG+1 bets out, CO-1 folds, button calls, SB calls. My action?
With the rake, it's 7.8-1 to call now.

[Joe826]

You're 1 to 11 to make it on the turn. I personally would muck. I guess implied odds might make it worth while but I'm not calling. Anyone else chase this?

[sublime]

Fold

You need 10.75-1 to see the turn.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Dealt 53o in BB.
UTG+1, CO-1, button, and SB all limp.
I see the free flop and its: A72 rainbow. UTG+1 bets out, CO-1 folds, button calls, SB calls. My action?
With the rake, it's 7.8-1 to call now.



[/ QUOTE ]

- you're closing the action
- if you hit, you have great relative position to the bettor
- you only need to make up about 3 SB. you can EASILY do this
- you are drawing to the nuts
- if you hit, it's not likely anyone will have a decent redraw

I call and I don't think it's close

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
- you're closing the action
- if you hit, you have great relative position to the bettor
- you only need to make up about 3 SB. you can EASILY do this
- you are drawing to the nuts
- if you hit, it's not likely anyone will have a decent redraw

I call and I don't think it's close

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, I guess this depends on heros leval of skill. Me personally? I fold beacuse I try to keep my decisions based on immediate pot odds, it keeps me out of trouble.

[Spyder]

I don't think the implied odds are there.

The only caller you'll get is the bettor who (most likely) has a pair of Aces. Everyone else will fold when you bet or raise knowing you hit a straight. But, it IS one small bet and you ARE on the Button. If that A had been a T or lower, I'd feel better about calling because a small pair might win.

Spyder

[Styles]

IMHO, Peel 1.

As someone said you are now the button. Position is often relative. You are no longer "out of position".

If you hit and check-raise and the 2 caught in between both fold and the bettor calls you still have their 2 big turn bets. That's an additional 8 sbs for 1 sb now. Implied odds are +15:1 for the turn. If you think the bettor will fold to a check-raise that's still enough 13:1.

The table seems pretty passive, no flush draws out yet, they might even check the turn through and let you see a free river /images/graemlins/grin.gif

OTOH you might hit and they check the turn through /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[t_petrosian]

Fold...period

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the implied odds are there.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has a pair of aces, then he'll pay off 2 BB, more likely 3 BB. all you need for implied odds are 1.5 BB.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree, I guess this depends on heros leval of skill. Me personally? I fold beacuse I try to keep my decisions based on immediate pot odds, it keeps me out of trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]


what does it have to do with level of skill? if you're capable of betting or check-raising the nuts, then you win money. it's not that difficult

[Styles]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the implied odds are there.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he has a pair of aces, then he'll pay off 2 BB, more likely 3 BB. all you need for implied odds are 1.5 BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition, I'm curious about the Button here. He just calls twice on an EP player.

I think there's a good chance he has a Ace-little or a small-pair. With the board being rags, it's a good chance he either has or will make two-pair or trips if/when the BB makes a straight and will pay off too.

[pudley4]

Easy call.


Folding is bad.

1 - You only need to make 3 sb between the turn and river. You should be able to make twice that just off the flop bettor.

2 - You are closing the action on the flop, so you know you won't have to put in more than 1 sb here.

3 - The flop bettor is on your left, so you should be able to get a checkraise in on the turn, increasing your potential implied odds

4 - You are drawing to the nut straight (on the turn) on a rainbow board - you don't have to worry about tainted outs on the turn (a flush or higher straight)

5 - Umm, I think there was something else but I got distracted and forgot /images/graemlins/grin.gif. In any case, for these reasons it's an easy call here.

Checkraise the turn if you hit your straight.

One more point - you say you are "out of position", yet you are in the perfect position in this situation. As I pointed out above, the flop bettor is to your left, meaning you close the action on the flop, and can also checkraise the entire field on the turn. If the flop bettor were on your right, you would be out of position here, and I would recommend a flop fold.

[Styles]

[sthief09]

pretty much my post verbatim, but I'm glad someone else at least agreed with my reasoning, because this isn't even close, and it worries me that this many people are calling it an easy fold

[sthief09]

pretty much my post verbatim, but I'm glad someone else at least agreed with my reasoning, because this isn't even close, and it worries me that this many people are calling it an easy fold.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
what does it have to do with level of skill? if you're capable of betting or check-raising the nuts, then you win money. it's not that difficult


[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry I dont think I was clear. What I should have said was: "Up until now I would have folded because I try to keep my game as simple as posible and factoring in imlied odds is something I haven't tried to do"

Not an EASY fold, but one I have been making until now. I think you know what I am saying, but even more importantly I know what YOU are saying. I didnt realize how much money is left on the tablt byu folding a hand like this.

[Ed Miller]

This is a good spot to call. Your gutshot is to the nuts, the board is rainbow, and you close the action. 8-to-1 is plenty.

[Ed Miller]

I think there's a good chance he has a Ace-little or a small-pair. With the board being rags, it's a good chance he either has or will make two-pair or trips if/when the BB makes a straight and will pay off too.

Assuming this is a low-limit Party game, there's a good chance you'll get the turn and river capped three ways between some guy with ace/no kicker and another guy with queen-high who decided to cold-bluff all the way.

Your opponents tend to play like utter crapola. Hands like this are a perfect spot to take advantage of that.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry I dont think I was clear. What I should have said was: "Up until now I would have folded because I try to keep my game as simple as posible and factoring in imlied odds is something I haven't tried to do"

Not an EASY fold, but one I have been making until now. I think you know what I am saying, but even more importantly I know what YOU are saying. I didnt realize how much money is left on the tablt byu folding a hand like this.

[/ QUOTE ]


you never realize how much calculation and consideration most decisions take until you see one that actually takes some. for the next week or so, check the odds of every gut shot you make and go through a check list in your head...

- am I closing action?
- am I getting correct pot odds?
- if I'm not getting correct pot odds, can I gain enough bets on later streets to make up for it?
- am I drawing to the nuts?
- is it likely that if I hit, my opponent will have a redraw?

you'll be surprised how many "easy" folds become calls.

[sublime]

Thanks Thief, I just read HEFAP section on implied odds and it says basically what you guys were trying to get across.

[Styles]

[ QUOTE ]
I think there's a good chance he has a Ace-little or a small-pair. With the board being rags, it's a good chance he either has or will make two-pair or trips if/when the BB makes a straight and will pay off too.

Assuming this is a low-limit Party game, there's a good chance you'll get the turn and river capped three ways between some guy with ace/no kicker and another guy with queen-high who decided to cold-bluff all the way.

Your opponents tend to play like utter crapola. Hands like this are a perfect spot to take advantage of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

You understood my post(s)!

Hallelu ... Hallelu ... Hallelu ... Hallelujah! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

(inside joke for those confused)

[Spyder]

You're right. It is only a small bet to call...I was thinking big bet. But, if I don't get that 6 on the turn, I'd be hard put to make that call to see the River.

Spyder