Another overplayed one

[Coilean]

Decent 20-40 game at the Mirage. I'm in the SB with QJo, a tight player limps UTG, a very loose player limps from MP, a recent arrival who thus far seems tight aggressive limps on the button, I complete, and the BB checks. Five of us to the flop for 1 bet apiece.

A/images/graemlins/spade.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gifx/images/graemlins/club.gif: Checked around.

9/images/graemlins/spade.gif: Checked to the button, who bets, I raise, folded to the button who 3-bets. I think too long to make a credibly scary 4-bet, so I just call intending to bet the river.

8/images/graemlins/club.gif: I bet. Comments, besides the ones about how bad the turn check sucks?

[Clarkmeister]

"Comments?"

Yeah, somehow I never make plays like this and yet it doesn't seem to hurt me.

[daryn]

i didn't think the turn check was so bad, but when he bet you should have folded instantly.

[AJo Go All In]

are you sure you're not playing party 15-30?

[Coilean]

Why fold after the button bets the turn, you can't put him on an ace can you? It seems not unlikely that he has nothing, and even if he does I probably have 7-10 outs, no?

[Coilean]

Heh, I hear you. I seem to wind up pulling this crap about once every couple of sessions or so, usually in this exact type spot (when it's pretty easy to read both of us for nothing).

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Heh, I hear you. I seem to wind up pulling this crap about once every couple of sessions or so, usually in this exact type spot (when it's pretty easy to read both of us for nothing).

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, so instead of spraying the felt with 24 chips, why not just bet the turn, or call down with Q-high? /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, so instead of spraying the felt with 24 chips, why not just bet the turn, or call down with Q-high?

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising is more fun? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[daryn]

i could understand a bet on the turn, but not a check-raise, and when he 3-bets, you probably have only 4 outs.

[James282]

A check-raise is fine since it cleans up your Qs and Js, but the pot is small and moves like this never seem to work for me, either /images/graemlins/smile.gif There is no way you could've anticipated a 3 bet, but it does look like your only shot at winning the pot this time was a bet on the river.
-James

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
A check-raise is fine since it cleans up your Qs and Js, but the pot is small and moves like this never seem to work for me, either /images/graemlins/smile.gif There is no way you could've anticipated a 3 bet, but it does look like your only shot at winning the pot this time was a bet on the river.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

What Q and J outs are you trying to fold out? The only better Q or J hands which can be folded out are KQ and KJ. Any other Qx and Jx hands which do not yet have a piece of this board are dominated by you.

It hardly seems worth checkraising and risking a three-bet for the slim chance that someone has KQ/KJ and will fold to the checkraise.

[Steve Giufre]

Like you said, both of you know about where the other one is. If you are confident about your read, I think 4 betting is right. That way you let him know it's gonna cost him two more bets to see your hand. By just calling the three bet, you give him the chance to just toss 8 chips in on the river and make you toss it into the muck.

[Bartholow]

Betting the turn would certainly be fine, but the pot is too small to be worth this turn checkraise. Really.

I know it looks like the button has nothing, but then again the flop is so ragged that some players would be unafraid of a free card with a set, maybe even A8 (not saying that is good play but we assume that our opponents make mistakes right?). 99 could have just hit a set. Meanwhile a flush or straight draw is going to call you (or even 3 bet), which means you have to bet again on the river not knowing if they have the draw or are calling down with a pair. It's still likely the button has nothing at all, but why put in 4 small bets at least just to win a pot that has 7 small bets in it?

[Coilean]

The button called my river bet, and I turned my hand over in order to make him show his TT. While I dislike his play in failing to raise preflop or bet the flop (the flop check seems particularly bad), I can't argue with his results this time around /images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

I think my failure to bet the turn was the biggest mistake here. What comes after is something of a comedy of compounding errors, but each play seems quite justifiable (although perhaps only to me, judging from the replies /images/graemlins/wink.gif) at the time it's made.

When the button bets the turn, there is little reason to put him on much of anything given his preflop and flop checks (excepting an occassional slowplayed bottom or middle set), so giving up here seems a bigger mistake to me than going for a check raise which only needs to succeed 36% of the time to start showing a profit (not even counting your 7-10 outs when called), especially given it seems there may be a 50% chance or better that he's on a steal. Of course, the obvious flaw here is that my bet looks so much like a resteal that he can play back at me fairly lightly, which he did /images/graemlins/tongue.gif. In retrospect, I like Clark's plan to just call him down, given I do have something to show down, and I'm a bit annoyed that I didn't consider it at the time.

Now after being 3-bet, folding still seems wrong as he just shouldn't have an ace here very often given the prior action, leaving me with 7-10 outs much more often than drawing slim to a set in the now 8.5BB pot. I still like the 4-bet if made without hesitation, since the threat of calling 2 more bets to get to the showdown here should be pretty intimidating if the button has a pair less than aces (his most likely hands at this point seem to be an aggressively played 9, a picked up flush draw, or a slowplayed/turned set).

Which brings us to the river bet. I did it at the time as an alternative plan to get a fold since I didn't feel I came up with the turn 4-bet in time to make a credibly intimidating reraise. In retrospect, I don't think it's a worthwhile bet, as probably the only hands I can't beat that won't look me up for 1 more bet are K-high flush draws. Having arrived at the river with a pair, most opponents can't resist paying one more bet to see your hand, the exact tendency I habitually prey upon with my liberal value betting policy. But really, it's hard to say how bad a bluff this is, given my lack of knowledge about this opponent; there are some opponents who look to make "good" laydowns, and it was maybe worth the price of a desperate bluff to find out whether this guy was one of them.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Right, so instead of spraying the felt with 24 chips, why not just bet the turn, or call down with Q-high?


[/ QUOTE ]

nobody could have said it better. and its funny 'cause its true.
-Barron

[andyfox]

Yes, up until the very end. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Mikey]

it seems like the Vegas boys are slapping you around over there.

[legend42]

I hate to say this, but I think he outplayed you. *You* are actually easier to read here than he is. While he probably doesn't have an ace, you almost certainly don't have one either (after the flop was checked around, and the board starting to get drawy, you'd be almost forced to bet out the turn with an ace). I think you can represent 98 (for 2 pair) here, maybe a set, but not much else that can beat TT. While his 3-bet on the turn seemed like the most curious part of the hand to me at first (why would he suddenly flip on the switch there?), it now looks like a nice play- especially give the strong resteal possibility that you cited.

While his flop check is a bit of a head scratcher, and it's hard to imagine that he did it with the intent of setting up aggression on the turn, it worked.

But even ignoring results, I just don't like it. First, the pot is too small. Second, there are still two other players to consider (you can't completely discount a weird hand in the BB- I've even seen good players make bankshot re-re-steals here). Third, like I (and you) said before, it's hard to represent an ace with a check-raise. Fourth, I'm not sure your range of hands for the button is inclusive enough. Isn't it possible a tricky player might check A8 (top 2) behind on the flop with a safe board like that, hoping for action on the turn? Fifth, well you get the idea...

I understand your justification for all the individual actions, and I often find myself getting into similar trouble with these kinds of seemingly logical plays, but I just don't think this is a good spot for it. Although it's gotta nag you whether a 4-bet on the turn would have done the trick /images/graemlins/confused.gif