NL, How much to bet?

[davidross]

Playing a NL $30 qualifier to a WSOP qualifier last night. 12 seats will be awarded. Still over 100 players left. My stack is average for the tourney with 3,170. BLinds are 50/100. I am in the cutoff with AA. UTG (5475) limps, MP (1470) limps and the guy on my right (2150) raises it to 500. How much do you bet here? I would love to be heads up against the raiser, but don't really want to play all 4 of them.

I made it 2K to go and they all folded.

[Tosh]

2000 is OTT IMO. I'd make it 1200-1500.

[fsuplayer]

Yeah, before looking at Tosh's reply, my number was T1200-T1300. With those stack sizes, I doubt you will get any calls. They will either fold or move in. But the point I think of not going to T2000 is that you dont want to scare away the original raiser. If one of the other players want to move in, great, bring 'em on!
BTW I think the original raisers play of raising to T500 and folding is horrible here. He's got to think anyone who wants to play with him will most likely just raise him all in. Awful.

Hope it worked out well for you David.
FsuPlayer

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing a NL $30 qualifier to a WSOP qualifier last night. 12 seats will be awarded. Still over 100 players left. My stack is average for the tourney with 3,170. BLinds are 50/100. I am in the cutoff with AA. UTG (5475) limps, MP (1470) limps and the guy on my right (2150) raises it to 500. How much do you bet here? I would love to be heads up against the raiser, but don't really want to play all 4 of them.

I made it 2K to go and they all folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well...You have to think that him raising 2 limpers for 25% of his stack pretty much has him tied to the pot. I would have made it either T1500 (3x his bet), or go ahead and get all in, and hope for one caller. I can't believe that any decent player would fold after putting 25% of his stack in on a "legit" raise (i.e. not a steal raise) then fold!

This leads me to believe that either:
a. he wasn't a decent player
or
b. he had a good read on you.

Was it online? Did you have a super tight image?

[davidross]

He hinted later that he had QQ or KK, trying to find out what I had. I'm not sure whether to believe him or not.

[davidross]

It's hard to comment on his abilities, but I don't think he was stealing. I think my image was quite tight (deservedly so I guess) and I think he made a laydown I didn't think he would make.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
He hinted later that he had QQ or KK, trying to find out what I had. I'm not sure whether to believe him or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's lieing.

[Canada Kelly]

At least T1000, but depending on his play, I might go as high as T1300.

[Jason Strasser]

Although it is probably not good tournament play, depending on the payout structure of the tournament I may consider smooth calling and then betting the pot on a non-intimidating flop. Of course, under normal circumstances this is 1k to go.

[Che]

I'm allin here in an attempt to use reverse psychology.

Reasoning:

MP will fold 99% of the time whether you make it 1000 or 3170. Add in the fact that any raise pot commits him and the size of your bet is immaterial to him. He's basically a non-factor in the decision.

It's possible that UTG has a hand he will play for 1000-1300 (but not more), but it is unlikely. With a call, a raise, and your reraise behind him, he should fold regardless of the specific amount you reraise *unless* he was doing the old UTG limp-reraise trap. If he's trapping, he'll be ecstatic that you reraised and you'll end up allin anyway - the only question is whether he puts you in or you put yourself in.

Like MP, the raiser will also be pot-commited whether you make it 1000 or 3170, so the only impact the size of your bet should have on his decision-making process is whether your bet looks "strong" or "weak."

Minraising looks strong, as does raising to 1200-1500, since you look like you *want* to be called in either case. On the other hand, jamming it may give the impression that you *don't* want to be called. As a result, many opponents will be more likely to call the allin than the smaller raise.

Of course, all of this would be out the window if the stacks were deeper - definitely 8000+, maybe even if everyone was 5000+. With deeper money, I would make it 1500 or a little less since pushing in 5000 or more chips into a pot of <1000 obviously doesn't make sense.

Attempting to use reverse psychology can be dangerous and your read(s) might rule it out in a specific situation, but I think it is a viable alternative, and I frequently use it in situations like this one against basically unknown online opponents. Sometimes it even works. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Later,
Che

[SossMan]

With these particular stack sizes, I think that makes a lot of sense, actually. Good analysis.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

The 2k you bet might as well have been all-in. You're obviously not folding to a reraise and that should be obvious to all involved. You could try just raising the minimum, making it 1000 to go, but that sort of move can be transparent as well. I'd likely push all-in and hope the raiser had KK or AK.

[Joe Tall]

If you are going 2k, you should just push in and try to make it look like you are buying a big pot and hopefully get a call.

Leaving 1k+ behind looks strange.

Peace,
Joe Tall