A 20/40 hand

[James282]

I am dealt 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif in the BB. A very tight preflop player open raises UTG, it's folded to the SB(a reasonable player postflop, loosish preflop) who call, and I call.

The flop comes A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to raiser who bets, SB folds, I call.

Turn is a T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif I check-call.

River is a 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif I bet.
Standard?
-James

[daryn]

hmm...

very tight player open raises utg, what do you put him on? i don't like this flop call. who knows if your 2 6 outs are even any good! are you thinking your 6 high flush will be good if it hits? i don't get it /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Vehn]

This is exactly how I play this hand if I have determined I have too much money.

[Rushmore]

I am interested to hear your alternative.

[Rushmore]

These are good questions, but what is the alternative?

I would have to assume the only other option here would be to make a play for the pot on the flop, trying to run him off a Q or a pocket pair.

Headsup, you can't assume he's holding a diamond, of course.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
hmm...

very tight player open raises utg, what do you put him on? i don't like this flop call. who knows if your 2 6 outs are even any good! are you thinking your 6 high flush will be good if it hits? i don't get it /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Once the action comes back to Hero heads up on the flop, why wouldn't he think his flush would be good? If opponent is very tight, then wouldn't this mean his EP openraising hands are probably limited to the small range of AA/AK/AQ/KK/QQ/JJ (and maybe TT), with none of shaded cards possibly being diamonds.

[Saborion]

I learned something new here.
If you include TT in his EP raising standards, that means out of 6*5 + 16*2 = 62 combinations, he's only afraid of 3+3+3 = 9 when it comes to the flush. Is that correct?

Means that his flush will be good around 85 % of the time right? 6 times out of 7, is that the correct term?

And if his flush outs are no good, then it means that the last two sixes are clean outs right?

Hmm... This was hard.
Against AA, QQ, TT he has 9 outs. Against AQ he has 11 outs.
Against KK, JJ he has 4.5 + 2 outs = 6.5 outs. Is that correct? K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif exist in half of the possible KK combinations, so his flush will be good half the time, and the sixes are clean outs.

Now, AK... 12 combinations total. K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif will be in 3 of those combinations. So his hand will be good 3 out of 4 times. So something along the line of 6.5 + 2 = 8.5 outs.

Hmm... Am I wrong? To sumarize.
AQ = 11 outs.
AA, QQ, TT = 9 outs.
AK = 8.5 outs.
KK, JJ = 6.5 outs.

Finally, since there are way more combinations of AK and AQ than any pair, and since he has a lot of outs vs AA, QQ, TT, isn't this a pretty easy call? If my math is correct that is. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Please correct me if I'm wrong. This sure was interesting.

[rigoletto]

are you thinking your 6 high flush will be good if it hits?

With Ad out there it Seems very likely!

[rigoletto]

I think the preflop call is borderline. The flop call is fine, with the Ad out there your flush draw will be good most of the time.

[ZeeJustin]

I haven't read any of the responses yet.
Preflop: the call is fine.
Flop: check fold.
Turn: Your hand is certainly not good enough for a raise, so the call is good.
River: Why bet out? What do you do if you are raised? You obviously can't 3 bet. Check call the river.

Edit: the bottom line is you are drawing to a hand that will only be good a relatively small percent of the time.

[Bartholow]

If you're going to look at it this way, it pays to be more precise.

After the flop:
AA/QQ/TT: 9 ways, 9 outs
KK/JJ no diamond: 6 ways, 11 outs
KK/JJ w/diamond: 6 ways, 2 outs
AK no diamond: 9 ways, 11 outs
AK w/diamond: 3 ways, 2 outs
AQ: 9 ways, 11 outs

So your average outs are 8.64.

Also notice that the sets/2 pair all have possibility of making boats, and in the cases where you are up against a bigger diamond you can make your set and still lose when a flush comes. So it is probably right to discount your average outs a little. Make it 7.5. This is still enough that, in terms of just odds of making the best hand, you can call on flop getting 7-1, but your overlay is not that large.

Then we need to think about how the hand will play out if you hit. If you hit your flush and it is good, we can assume the sets and 2 pair hands will pay you off a decent amount of the time (they will AT LEAST see if they fill up, then often crying call on the river, but of course it depends on the opponent). The question versus these hands is whether you can risk the checkraise. Some opponents will check because they know they could be beat and can improve, while others will think a set is worth one more bet in case you have a gutshot or something. Since you often don't know an opponent's tendencies that well, it will often seem necessary to just come out betting. This means hands like AK, KK, and JJ with no diamond will probably not pay you off much at all when you hit, but the few hands WITH a bigger diamond get to raise you.

If you instead check the turn when a diamond falls, those hands with outs can take a free card sometimes, the hands with bigger diamonds can bet and you still can't checkraise very well. And of course if you make your set you are probably good but there are some higher sets possible.

So we can see that the hand is hard to play when you hit. You can easily not make much in implied odds, or charge yourself too much when you hit but are still behind. And your opponent's redraws can be expensive for you. For this reason I think it is pretty close between calling and folding, particularly if your opponent is tough or generally hard to read. Also notice that if your opponent raises more hands preflop, it will include more hands with a possible diamond, which makes things a little worse in the basic odds realm, and much worse in the later streets play realm. Again, folding can't be much of a mistake if it is one.

If you have position, the hand becomes MUCH easier to play on the later streets(BTW, I think the check call the turn and bet the river line of play which actually occurred is pretty good for out of position). In that case the call is pretty clear IMHO.

Anything I missed?

[Clarkmeister]

You played it fine. Folding the flop is a big mistake.

[James282]

Hey daryn, as other posters have elaborated, my flop call is mandatory considering it's heads up and both the Ad and Qd are out on the board. I was drawing to a flush here much more than I was drawing to a set.

You guys are correct about redraws etc. but if you had a more "typical" flush draw, like 9dTd on a Ad3d2s board, and were positive that someone had a set of threes, you would still have the odds to draw to your flush.

What I don't understand is why anybody has any reason to think that my flush is no good if it gets there? The chance that he has the Kd is slim compared to the other holdings he most likely has - AA-QQ(sometimes JJ, probably only raises it 50%, maybe less) AKs AKo AQs AQo, slim possibility of KQs but never KQo.

As far as the river bet goes, this same opponent will be wary of me making a move on him, and will almost certainly call with 2 pair or better(and sometimes 1 pair). The reason the river bet works is because he will only raise the nuts, but will call with much more because I haven't shown the strength of a big flush myself.
-James

[daryn]

i think i understand the analysis that followed my post, and it makes sense that since the A and Q of diamonds are out there, the chances your flush is good are pretty good.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i understand the analysis that followed my post, and it makes sense that since the A and Q of diamonds are out there, the chances your flush is good are pretty good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a good rule. Never fold a 4-flush headsup. It's not always correct, but it usually is.

[James282]

He simultaneously threw out 8 chips and pocket aces, proudly showing the table how I had sucked out on him. I won a lot of bets from this player later in this session due to him betting into me with marginal holdings.
-James