Home tourney - right or wrong decision

[ScottTheFish]

Ok Home NL tourney, everyone started with 500T (terrible structure, but whatever)

Started with 12 people, down to 4. Top 2 get paid.

Blinds are up to 100/200. I have around 1200. Villain has about 1500, other 2 have smaller stacks.

I get 99 on the button. UTG raises 300 for a total of 500. UTG has been playing fairly aggressive since it got down to about 5 (as we all have) but is not a maniac.

So it's 500 to me with 99 on the button. What's your action here and why? I'll tell you what I did after I get some feedback.

[Rick Diesel]

It is either a push or fold situation. If you call, and the flop comes with an overcard, you have no idea where you stand. I would probably push, but could also see waiting for a better spot, or waiting for at least one of the small stacks to bust.

BTW, if there is 12 people at T500, that is T6,000 in play. How do you have 1,200, villian has 1,500, and the other two have smaller stacks? It doesn't add up. I am not trying to nitpick with this point, it's just that at this stage of the tournament stack sizes have a greater role in what my decision would be.

Rick Diesel

[Sandwich]

Depending upon how small the small stacks are (i.e., are they in danger of getting eaten by the blinds soon), I would FOLD here.

I didn't even consider calling (gap concept). Why risk your entire stack by pushing all in when lots of overcards out there could pair up UTG's hand to beat your nines?

[ScottTheFish]

you're right about the stacks...it was a week ago so i dont remember exactly. It's possible we were all close to even. I do remember I had 6 or 7x the BB and villain had me covered, but not by a whole lot.

I also agree it's push or fold. Anyone else? Who pushes and who folds here?

[NotMitch]

I think I would push. How small are the small stacks, and what is the payout for 1st and 2nd? This makes a huge difference.

[Nottom]

I think I would have to push. You say UTG has been aggressive, so he could easily be pushing something like Ax here. If you come over the top, he might even lay down some weaker overcards like KT or something. You stack is in danger of being blinded away if you don't do something (as is everyones) and 99 is very strong 4-handed. With these stacks you are gonna have to make a stand soon and this seems like as good a spot as any to do that.

[LetsRock]

A couple things that you don't detail come into play.

The size of the "smaller stacks" as mentioned previously. Are they close to the wall or are they close to you.

You say the villain is not a maniac, but will he lay down if you push back?

If the stacks are about even, I lean towards shove. If the short stacks are in eminent danger, I lean towards fold - I have nothing invested in this hand so far.

If the villain might lay down, I lean towards shove. You're probably ahead but facing 2 over cards makes you a very slight favorite and general tourney strategy suggests to avoid slight edge situations with a lot at stake. The gap theory also suggests a probable fold.

Also to consider: will the blinds jump into the mix? Your shove would likely make them fold (if they hane any clue), but your fold might induce them to play sherrif.