Probability PP is ahead on flop vs overcards

[AleoMagus]

Hi. I have been thinking a bit lately about a sng tournament play I make now and then with pocket pairs. I will raise (or even call) with half my stack and then push no matter what comes on the flop (as I am fairly committed at that point anyways)

In this way, if I have a stack of (say) 600 and the blinds are 50/100, instead of just pushing I will play it in two stages to push overcards off of bad flops

My reasoning is that while hands like 88 vs AK are roughly a coin toss when I see all the board cards, my 88 is probably a lot bigger favorite if the AK doesn't get to see the turn and river.

So, two questions:

What (roughly) is the prob. that a PP will be ahead of two overcards after only the flop is seen

AND

Is a move like this worth it given that you will not gain the extra chips of an all-in when you would win anyways. I suspect it is more worth it in tourney play (as survival is more important)

Thanks
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

Probably just wishful thinking, but I'd also really be interested in hand rankings for HE but only considering their value after the flop is seen

If anyone either has this info or can run a sim for me, I'd be very grateful.

Thanks
Brad S

Edit: HU would be preferable, but really anything would be nice

[blackaces13]

Using this strategy it seems as though your second bet will only be called if beaten. Sure there are the occasional stubborn players who won't fold AK even after the flop missed them but for the most part you're allowing the over cards to either give you amount X or take 2X.

In other words, I don't think the 2nd large bet is profitable as it figures to only be called when beaten 90% of the time. The times when the 2nd bet does work you likely would have won the hand anyway if you'd pushed preflop, the times when the bet doesn't work you had to go all in anyway.

It is a very interesting approach and I know that you are a better player than myself but this line of play seems dubious.

[AleoMagus]

In a sense, your point is why I am curious about the probability here that a PP is ahead after only the flop is seen

Yes, you are either winning 1x or losing 2x, but not with the same frequency. If you are ahead more than 2/3 of the time, you will be making a profit here, and in practice you will need even less as many stubborn players will not let go of overcards, or even realize that they are behind. You will also occasionally make a hand yourself on the turn or river. There will also be flops that are particularly frightening where you will alreday know that you are beat and will check-fold.

I think Greg Raymer refers to this type of play as a 'stop and go' move.

I am sceptical myself these days, but I keep thinking about Sklansky's comments in TPFAP about how AK 'likes' to be all in. If it is better for AK to be all-in (so that it sees the whole board), then shouldn't I prefer that it isn't?

Still, a good objection and one I hope gets cleared up more definitively than I have attempted.

Regards
Brad S

[AleoMagus]

I doubt that I stumped you all, so either my question is totally uninteresting or I have been too general.

So, I will give it one more shot and ask more specifically:

If I hold 88 and my opponent holds AK, what are the odds that I will still be ahead after ONLY the flop is seen?

Regards
Brad S

[Im Just A Bill]

OK, I will give it a shot. I hope someone with math skills will double check this for me. I am a bit rusty.

Some assumptions: AK is not suited, and we know for sure that we are dealing with AK.

With that said, there are 48 remaining cards that can combine to create 17,296 possible flops. Of these we are interested in those that will improve AK to beat 88, keeping in mind that 88 could improve as well. So, these will be "ahead" of 88 on the flop.

Axx, where x is not an 8 - 2709 ways to make
Kxx, where x is not an 8 - 2709 ways to make
AAx, any x - 46 ways to make
KKx, any x - 46 ways to make
QJT - 64 ways to make
AAA - 1 way to make
KKK - 1 way to make
(I think that is all...)

So, assuming I did all that right, there are 5576 flops that will put AK (not suited) on the winning side of things. Out of the possible flops, that is about 32.2% or about 1 to 2 odds.

If your opponent has AKs, then of course you would also have to include the flush possibilites.

Also note that just because the 88 (or any pair) may still be winning on the flop, it may not necessiarily be the favorite due to other draw possibilites.

-Bill

[Earthy Tones]

You claim you are pot committed when half of your stack is in preflop in this situation, yet if I held 88 and the flop came down with 2 or more overs, I wouldn't feel comfortable pushing in this situation. I'd rather wait a couple hands before the blinds hit me and at worst make that same raise to 300, hopefully get one caller, and most likely you are no worse than 60/40 or 65/35, which I feel is a much better shot than 88 against a top heavy flop.

ET

[C M Burns]

I didn't check your math but i beleive at some point i worked out that with AK (or any 2) you will hit an A or K about 40% and if you take out an 8 flop here, it's prob about 32% to be best for AK here, so that seems reasonable.

SO it apears that you will flop the best hand 68% of the time. So in this sense your strategy beats the 52% chance you had when allin. But of course you will often see when you are more or less likley to be beat. I bet if you adjusted this strategy and folded when their were 2 or three overs you think your opp may have it could do much better. Maybe I should try this

[Im Just A Bill]

Additionaly, taken all the way to the river, 88 will beat AK 55.42% of the time.

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=h&b=&d=&h=8s+8c%0D%0Aah+kd

[Big Trog]

[ QUOTE ]
Some assumptions: AK is not suited, and we know for sure that we are dealing with AK.

With that said, there are 48 remaining cards that can combine to create 17,296 possible flops. Of these we are interested in those that will improve AK to beat 88, keeping in mind that 88 could improve as well. So, these will be "ahead" of 88 on the flop.

Axx, where x is not an 8 - 2709 ways to make
Kxx, where x is not an 8 - 2709 ways to make
AAx, any x - 46 ways to make
KKx, any x - 46 ways to make
QJT - 64 ways to make
AAA - 1 way to make
KKK - 1 way to make
(I think that is all...)

So, assuming I did all that right, there are 5576 flops that will put AK (not suited) on the winning side of things. Out of the possible flops, that is about 32.2% or about 1 to 2 odds.


[/ QUOTE ]
A minor problem - If the flop comes AA8 or KK8, then our Hero is still in the lead with a full boat. Thus, you can't just say that AAx or KKx will put the opponent in the lead for any x.

[Im Just A Bill]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif Right you are.