100 Stars SNG Results, Suggestions Please

[adam61]

Alright, well if you remember my previous post I played about 300 Party SNGs $10+1 and ended up with an ROI of about -1% using a tight aggressive style. I felt basically panicked with the 800 chips at party so I decided to drop a rank and move to stars. I've played 100 SNGs at Stars at $5.50 and now plan to move to $10+1. From there I'd like to move to $15+1 for the nicer rake and quicker tournaments if they aren't too bad. Maybe I'm being unrealistic but I'd like to get to a point pretty soon where I hold 25 buy-ins($400) for 15+1s and play about 100 a month with a 25% ROI and take that $400 out of my account and *gasp* actually be making some money from poker. Any suggestions about how to move to $15+1, how much money to leave in, how to manage my bankroll and try to make that 300-400 a month and also probably slowly grow my bankroll to eventually(months later) move up.

Ok I was just going to just put a storm of statistics up here from my own records and from PokerTracker. Sorry if it's a bit much but I'm not 100% sure what to look for and if any of the more veteran players see something that jumps out at them as a weakness I'd love to hear about it.

Ok here goes this is 100 $5.50 SNGs at Stars with 9 players payouts 50/30/20.

Profit: $138.50
ROI: 25.18%
In the Money: 45%

1st: 17%
2nd: 12%
3rd: 16%
4/5th: 17%
6-9th: 38%

Comments there. I've taken first a LOT more when I make the money, this is a lot of my increase in ROI from -1% to 25% in the switch. I've also only got 17% bubble finishes this time as opposed to nearly 30% at party. I'm very happy with that. I could finish in the money a little more, and I could take a few more firsts without much change in my game to increase my ROI to 33-35% which is what I'm working on now. I plan to move to $10+1 immediately and $15+1 once I hit $350 or so, anyone got comments on when I should move up? and when my breakpoints should be to move down? I can't really afford to jeopardize my bankroll right now. My bankroll is currently $240 and I'm starting $10+1 immediately after this post.

Ok some stats from tracker, there's a lot here just if you see anything that jumps out at you please comment and I can give more info and that would be very helpful.

This is through about 6,500 hands.

Vol Put $ in Pot: 21%
Vol Put $ in Pot from SB: 32%
Saw Flop All Hands: 23.5%
Saw Flop not a Blind: 12.98%

I feel pretty tight now, this number was like 18% on party I've tightened up and tried to be more tight-aggressive.

Folded SB to Steal: 87%
Folded BB to Steal: 68%
Folded BB to Steal HU: 67%
Att to Steal Blinds: 22%
Won $ When saw flop: 41.77%
Amount Won: $57,350
Big Bets/Hand: 0.05

Went to Showdown: 30.56%
Won $ at Showdown: 47.69%
Raised Preflop: 12.20%

First Action After Pre-Flop Raise
Raise: 2.45%
Bet: 20.26%
Call: 1.42%
Check: 2.06%
Fold: 2.06%
No Flop: 52.39%

Aggression Factor:

Pre-Flop: 1.19
Flop: 4.27
Turn: 3.48
River: 4.00
Total: 1.95

I feel VERY aggressive compared to my old play, but some people are saying a total of around 3.00 is a very solid aggressive player, not sure what else I can do here.

Folded to River Bet: 67.09%

When Folds Hand:

No Flop: 23.21%
Pre-Flop: 67.07%
Flop: 6.99%
Turn: 1.80%
River: 0.93%

My main problem that's keeping me at 25% instead of 35% is stupid stupid calls. Often after I make a stupid call I play smarter but I feel like I play "too" smart. I fold to any significant re-raise unless I have a great hand and just get run over. The hardest part of poker for me has been walking the fine line between playing tight-weak and being run down, and being overly aggressive and pushing myself into stupid calls, if I ever master that I'm sure I could turn pro but it's very difficult.

Sorry to put so many stats up there. I understand it all and it all looks great to me (compared to before) but anything that looks suspicious to veterans please tell me all about it I'm looking hard to improve. Also I'm really looking for comments about moving to $10+1 and eventually $15+1. I really want to stick at $15+1 for months holding $400(25 buy-ins) in my account and siphoning off 90% or so of the rest letting my bankroll slowly go up while actually pulling money out of my account. 100 a month at 15+1 with 25% ROI is $400 a month any reason I'm unreasonable in my thinking there?

Thanks in advance for your comments.

[PrayingMantis]

I don't know what to tell you about all these PT stats. I don't have PT, so I'm not interested in how it is used. I also feel that PT is much more relevant to ring game than tournies. However, one thing (at least) that caught my attention is your aggression factor of 1.19 PF. If I undrestand what's aggression factor, that's the ratio of raises/calls. 1.19 pre-flop looks very very low to me.

In other words, and that I could understand from your post without any of the stats, it's possible you do play somewhat "weak-tight". That doesn't mean your results are not good. I think that 25% ROI in your first 100 SNG on stars is very nice. It is possible to bring it higher, of course, but that's not the point. You are winning, and anyway, you cannot really tell from your small sample what is your "true" ROI, if there's such a thing.

[ QUOTE ]
The hardest part of poker for me has been walking the fine line between playing tight-weak and being run down, and being overly aggressive and pushing myself into stupid calls, if I ever master that I'm sure I could turn pro but it's very difficult.


[/ QUOTE ]


I think that is a very important observation. Finding the thin line between weak-tight and over-aggressive. That's where the great skill of tournamrent poker is, IMO. And I believe it's not something you can learn from stats, but only from expirience, self-analysis, and a feel of the actual game, at the actual moment. Stats can only, maybe, guide you toward the right direction.

I'm a student of the game, so I don't want this to sound like I'm an expert or something, because I'm very far from it. That's why I think your comment about "turning pro" is a bit off. You are posting here results of your first 100 5.5$ on stars, and think that only if you change X or Y in your game, you could become a pro? I don't know what you mean by that (or what you mean by "pro"), but you should maybe better think about your game, as it is, without these far-fatched ambitions, that look rather exaggerated at this point.

[Stagemusic]

Wow. That's a whole bunch o' statistics. You say you know what they mean. Are you saying that you know what they are telling you about your game or that you know what the stats themselves mean? PT is a very useful tool. The problem is that too many people start thinking that it's the be all and end all of game analysis...not to me it isn't. It will show you trends and tendencies that you can change but it will never tell you when to lay down that QQ when you have two raisers in front of you. That being said, a couple of things did stand out to me. I am probably wrong so I will let others pick my comments apart.

Here are the stats I am talking about...

Folded SB to Steal: 87%
Folded BB to Steal: 68%
Folded BB to Steal HU: 67%
Att to Steal Blinds: 22%
Won $ When saw flop: 41.77%
Amount Won: $57,350
Big Bets/Hand: 0.05

Went to Showdown: 30.56%
Won $ at Showdown: 47.69%
Raised Preflop: 12.20%

First Action After Pre-Flop Raise
Raise: 2.45%
Bet: 20.26%
Call: 1.42%
Check: 2.06%
Fold: 2.06%
No Flop: 52.39%


The first part is you defend your BB 1 time out of 3 when faced with what PT decides is a steal attempt. However, when Heads Up you only defend 1 time out of 4. Seems to me that it should be the other way around and you are easily scared off your blind when Heads Up. You might take a look at some posts or books and read what they say about playable hands in a multi-way vs heads up situation.

The next one that really jumped out at me was your win % when you do see a flop. I think you have been fooling yourself just a little by saying you have been tight/aggressive. The 41% win percentage when you see a flop shows a tendency to go a little meek post flop. This is also substantiated by the Aggression Factor at the turn which drops almost a full point from the Flop. It is also backed up with the stats from the betting. After you make a Pre-flop raise you are just as likely to fold or check as you are to raise again and even less likely to call a bet in front of you. You do continue to bet much more often when all check to you or you are the first to act and that is good.

The numbers are still high which is great and I am sure that you are seeing results and getting a good feeling of confidence when you sit down to play. If I were you I would consider making a permament move to a higher limit and try to maintain these stats. They are excellent and you will be much more profitable. Very nice job. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif