Do you keep jamming the turn here?

[SoCalPat]

Paradise Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) 3-bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (25.50 SB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(6 players) </font>
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero raises, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 3-bets, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, Hero caps, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (21.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (25.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
UTG+1 checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 31.25 BB

Highlight below for my opponents' hands

<font color="white">MP1 had AA, MP2 had K2o (?!?!?!) </font>

I'll give my thoughts on this hand, more specifically my PF and turn play, after some responses. One hypothetical: What do you do on the river if the flush doesn't hit?

[Festus22]

I think you played the hand fine.

All MP1 has done is stand on the gas both PF, flop and then led the turn. The big 4 (AA, KK, QQ or JJ) are very likely hands at this point and you're ahead of exactly none of them.

If a non-diamond brick hits the river, I'd probably call if it were one bet since you'd be getting something like 28:1.

[DoctorDrew]

I would have played this as you did. The only hands I see MP1 having at the turn would be AA, KK, QQ, AK. Maybe JJ. No way he has AT. That means at best you are presently even with MP1, but almost certainly behind and one of your outs Jd may be dead. No, the call here is a good move in my book.
(MP2 is obviously a 3 year old left unsupervised at Dad's computer)

Non-diamond I would give the crying call, but expect to lose.

[bakku]

I would have played this hand the exact same way. MP1 seems to really likes his hand so I think just calling the turn was a good move. Nice hand!

[ QUOTE ]
One hypothetical: What do you do on the river if the flush doesn't hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Although you're most likely behind, the pot is huge so I'd call

[StellarWind]

I raise the turn. I think your chances of winning are so high that this is a value bet. Certainly MP1's most likely hand is AA and you have 12.5 outs against that. Also 12 versus QQ, 11 versus KK, 11 versus JJ, a huge freeroll against AK, and of course AQ is way overboard.

Rest is routine.

[CardCuda]

I probably would've 3 bet the turn here, you have many outs (Any diamond, 3 kings, 4 tens (possible chop). and also to see if MP1 "really likes his hand".

hypothetical: What do you do on the river if the flush doesn't hit?

Pot is too big to fold.

[Raiser]

I like the call. Even if you knew for sure UTG+1 would stick around, I'm not sure raising here would be a value play.

Unless MP1 is a lunatic he has you beat right now (with AA, KK, QQ being the most likely hands). You've got 8 outs to the stone cold nuts. The J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif might fill him up. Let's call that half of an out. The other kings could be outs, or could fill up MP1. Let's say the 2 kings give you 1 extra out. That gives you ~9.5 outs to make the winner. So you're a 3.8:1 underdog. With 3 opponents left, I don't see the value in a raise.

Edited: to say that I'm an idiot. Missed the tens as outs. They might lead to a split so the other 3 tens could count as 1.5 outs. I guess that gives you 11 outs --&gt; 3.1:1 odds. It's close, but maybe a raise isn't bad as long as you think UTG+1 will come along.

[StellarWind]

You have overlooked the gutshot.

[Festus22]

I don't think he has nearly that many clean outs as there are other players still in the pot. I count 8 diamonds as absolute nut out, the 3 non-diamond tens likely will chop so that's another 1.5. I think that's about it. Another K may very well boat someone and I wouldn't count another ace as a definite either. So I think he has 8 clean outs at 5:1 and 1.5 outs at reduced odds. So even if all call, he's only getting 3:1. And this assumes no reraise. If MP1 3-bets, are you auto-capping?

With the above being stated, I don't think a turn raise by hero is awful by any means. I do think it is a high-variance play however.

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
You have overlooked the gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks Wind, I'm a moron /images/graemlins/tongue.gif and have edited my post.

[SoCalPat]

1. Normally, I don't make it 3 with AKs, but I was in the cutoff, there were already plenty of players in the pot and position would be vitally important for the rest of the hand. Who cares if I get the blinds and button out -- even if they want to play with junk?

2. The turn card really conflicted me. Honestly, I wasn't enthralled to see it. Wait a minute ... I can almost hear the screams now ... "You've got TPTK, you dolt! How can you not like the turn!!!!"

The turn K did two things: It "counterfeited" three of my outs (if a T falls, I'm almost certain to chop), and while it gave me two more outs (in reality, just one more out given one K was already in play) in the remaining Ks, if I do get lucky and get one of them, I still can't treat it as the best hand.

Also, it's all but forcing me to call on the river for one bet if I don't improve to the flush.

[Festus22]

"Normally, I don't make it 3 with AKs"

Ugh. Why not?

[chief444]

I agree with the majority of the other responses. Calling the turn is the right play here. Even if you know UTG+1 would not fold for 2 bets, I still like the call. Unless MP1 is a total maniac there is no way your TPTK is good. I would not even feel to good about catching another K on the river.

I think a turn raise in this situation would be slightly -EV.

[chief444]

Not making it 3-bets in that position with one limper ahead of the initial raiser and 2 cold-calls in between would be a huge mistake.

I agree completely with your thoughts on the turn card. It did you more harm than good. Can't complain about the river though. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[StellarWind]

The odds on the turn raise are very close. I still think it's hairline +EV if you count outs correctly and allow for the small chance that you are already tied or winning. But it's very close.

And totally irrelevant.

[ QUOTE ]
One hypothetical: What do you do on the river if the flush doesn't hit?

[/ QUOTE ]

You raise the turn so that you don't have to answer this question! Just about every poster agrees you need a showdown. Buy it now while the EV cost is insignificant.

What can happen?

1. MP1 calls and checks the blank on the river. You break even.

2. MP1 calls and checks the flush card on the river. You would have preferred him to bet the river so you could raise, but the three bets you won on the turn are almost certainly more than you will lose on the river. Not everyone is going to call two bets. You gain some bets.

3. MP1 calls but someone bets a lower flush on the river. You gain three bets.

4. MP1 reraises. Guess what? You don't need a free showdown. The EV cost of the reraise is insignificant because you have lots of outs against every hand. You gain one bet by folding the river whenever you miss.

Sounds like a deal to me /images/graemlins/cool.gif.