Mirage 20-40: Play This Hand Against Me

[Dynasty]

I think this Mirage 20-40 hand played shortly after midnight on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning is more interesting from my opponent's perspective so I'll present it that way.

The game was fantastic- one of the best 20-40 games I can remember in quite a while with 6-8 players routinely seeing the flop, usually for one bet.

The Hero of this hand is probably the toughest opponent at the table. He can definitely beat this table and can probably hold his own in a semi-tough 20-40 game. He's obviously read some good poker literature.

The hand:

The first few players uncharacteristically fold to Hero in MP. Hero raises with J/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. A weak, overly-loose player on his immediate left cold-calls. I'm next to act and 3-bet. Everybody else folds back to Hero who calls. Weak player also calls. Three players see the flop for three bets each.

The flop is: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif

Hero checks. Weak player bets. I call. Hero check-raises. Weak player calls. I call. Three players see the turn with 8.25 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Hero bets. Weak player calls. I raise.

Where do you stand? And, what's your play?

[Diplomatdcm]

I would call and check call the river. It looks like I am beat but the pot is now big enough that I think you need to call down.

[Your Mom]

Because of the presence of the weak player, it is unlikely you are putting a move on him. You've 3 bet preflop and now raised the turn. It's looking like a big pair from you, Dynasty. I'd fold, but maybe you are trickier in this spot than I think.

[Jamie Collins]

Hello Dynasty,
I would take the Jim Brier line on this one:

I would fold. If I'm ahead with JJ there are a lot of cards that could make the loose player's hand or your hand on the river. And it doesn't seem very likely you would play AQ/AK/10-10/8-8 this way. If I'm behind I'm drawing pretty slim and there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot if I added correctly. I would estimate there is only a 10% chance JJ is good here, unless you're a lot looser than I thought.

Regards,
Jamie

[bernie]

Your turn raise isnt facing the stronger players with 2 bets. He knows the weak player isnt likely to raise behind him. So it could be seen as a value bet by you with a higher pair.

Although...

With the weak player in, it's a good time to try and put a move on to get the other player out and be HU with a drawing weaker player while getting a possibly better hand out.

It reminds me of a concept in HEPFAP, though im not sure if you're using it here. (keeping a weaker player in to get a better player out) So, like a slot machine, id call and pay off 1 bet on the river.

Lastly, if, as the opponent i knew you had this image of me, id suspect your preflop 3 bet is a very tight 3 bet. But since i didnt cap preflop maybe you're not putting me on AA or KK. So a move on the turn can represent it.

b

[China Willy]

If I'm this guy and I have any kind of line on your play I three-bet this. I don't know what hand you want to play slow on the flop given this board and the PF action, and I think you're making a play to get HU against the poor player. If you have something like 99 and/or you continue this line of play by 4-betting to get me to fold a better hand than yours, more power to you. I'm three-betting here.

-CW

[China Willy]

Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes? Especially not QQ, given that he would want to drive out AK if the solid initial raiser holds overcards. I think Dynasty has narrowed the other fella's hand to TT or JJ or QQ and he *either* has AA *or* is trying to get heads up against the weak player with a worse hand than JJ.

I think its the latter.

-CW

[Clarkmeister]

"Play this hand against me."

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

[China Willy]

[ QUOTE ]
"Play this hand against me."

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unquestionably.

[Steve Giufre]

This one is tough. I think it would depend on wether or not I thought you were capable of 3 betting preflop with 88. If not, then I might let it go. The only hands he can really beat are 88 and 10 10. Although its possible for you to have AK or AQ of clubs, I dont think you can raise the turn with either of these hands because of the presence of the bad player. So your hand has to have some showdown value agaist the other (weak) player because there is a decent chance he's gonna call down with something like A9. So I've got to give you a real pair here. Knowing that you may try to get me off my hand with 10 10, calling, or 3 betting the turn and checking the river seem reasonable. I think you might also play 88 like this for similar reasons, but If I dont feel you are capable of 3 betting that preflop, I might consider folding since 10 10 would then be the only hand I could logically put you on that I beat. All things considered, I think 3 betting the turn and checking the river might be the best option. Interesting hand.

[Duke]

Do what you can to just call on the flop, then raise 2 guys on the turn. I think I lay down a couple kings here, expecting to see aces a bazillion percent of the time.

~D

[afish]

I call (contrary to Clarkmeister, calling has got to be better than folding). There is no way I am folding to a strong player who could be raising overcards or a big draw. I don't see the value in knocking out the weak player with a three bet. Also, if Dynasty four-bets, I am going to have to pay it off, and there are a lot of scare cards that can come on the river that are going to turn this into a payoff hand.

[Pipedream]

Well if hero knows you even a little bit he folds this hand on the turn to your raise. He probably knows that you wouldn't make it 3 bets to his initial raise preflop with anything less that AA-JJ,AK and maybe TT. At least that would be my read if I was hero. There is also a weak player in between you two, meaning there is much less chance you're making a semi bluff play because of 'implicit collusion'. I would read you for a pair larger than mine and muck.

Pipedream

[Joe Tall]

With the calls station stuck between us it unlikely you are making a move at this pot as you are likely holiding a higher overpair.

The only hand I think I can beat is TT and I fold.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Clark,

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

I agree that calling is the worst option. However, what do you put Dynasty on that you are ahead. Precisely TT? Maybe, but doubtful, 88?

Thanks,
Joe Tall

[TimTimSalabim]

It's close between calling and folding. I'd like someone to explain how 3-betting out of position here can possibly be better than calling.

Edit: If he was weak-tight, I can see the possible advantage of 3-betting to get him to fold something like QQ. But since he's been described as weak-loose, and he has certainly played the hand like a calling station, I don't see him folding the best hand.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
there are only 12.25 BB's in the pot... I would estimate there is only a 10%

[/ QUOTE ]

Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[Jamie Collins]

Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[Jamie Collins]

Hello China,

[ QUOTE ]
Right, but do you think he would play AA-QQ the way he describes?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's a heck of a lot more likely he waited til the turn to put pressure on MP and loosey with AA-QQ than 88,10-10. And if I'm wrong I would stongly recommend against waiting til the turn with 88 or 10-10. Dynasty's best chance of winning the hand if he's ahead would be to make MP face 2 cold on the flop with his overcards.

What I think is more interesting is if Dynasty would play Ak/q of clubs this way.

But as far as meta-game considerations he won't get MP to fold a better hand to him for the next month if he shows down 10-10, 88, Ak/q here. Which is fine, Dynasty would just have to make a strategy adjustment.

Regards,
Jamie

[Softrock]

Dynasty - I'm answering before reading what anyone else says. I've never played with you but read plenty of your posts. Seems you most likely have a pair bigger than JJ or A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif. Some possibility you have TT or 99 but I find those less likely. Hard for me to do anything other than go into check-call mode. I realize I could be giving you a draw to an A or K but given my position I just can't see the value in being more aggressive here.

[Tosh]

At first it looks like you have an overpair or maybe a set of 9's and waited to the turn to raise them. But I think that is exactly what you are trying to portray. You know that hero knows the pot is protected and you figure to have a good chance of folding him if he has something like jacks or tens. I personally put you on something like AK, maybe AK /images/graemlins/club.gif.

My play would be to 3 bet you. I'm probably way wrong but I don't give you credit for an overpair here.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi shemp,

[ QUOTE ]
Only? Huh? And (stipulating same) what is 10% of 12.25?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is my math off?

He's getting 12.25 to 1 on his turn call. He's 22-1 to spike a Jack.

That's too big a gap if he's only good here 10% of the time, even factoring in Loosey's actions and his implied odds when hitting his Jack. Not to mention he could lose to a redraw on the river. Correct?

Regards,
Jamie

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're good 10% of the time, you only need 9:1 to call to break even. (Not even counting the small redraw to the J)

[tpir90036]

you are certainly capable of throwing a move here....especailly with the 3rd person in protecting the pot....which you hope that i am aware of. at this point i have you on either an A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif semi-bluff or QQ. i call down but could fold the river if it is ugly.

[Jamie Collins]

Thanks for the reply SossMan,
Help me out on the math.

Let's make this as simple for me as possible by calculating just the pot odds for the turn only and assume loosey folds.

1 time in ten he will win 12.25

and 9 times in ten he will donate 1 BB each time - I'm assuming that's where the 9:1 comes from.

Ok I think I was making it too difficult on myself.
-------------

Now if you factor in loosey's call of Dynasty's raise, even better odds right? However, which is greater: the odds of JJ getting drawn out on the river if he's ahead or his implied odds if he's behind and spikes a J?

My guess is even if the former is greater than the latter it's not enough to compensate for the 3.25 (12.25-9) overlay.

I'll leave the math posts to the smart guys!

Regards,
Jamie

[CrackerZack]

I agree with your assessment, but think AcKc (less likely AcQc since 3-bet PF) isn't unreasonable for Dynasty trying to make a move on this pot. I'm not a huge fan of this move here, but it could get a better hand to fold winning the pot if the weak player is drawing too.

Edit: i fold if it isn't obvious.

[jonnyv]

You have to think that Dynasty wants the good player to fold to get heads up with the weak player. The weak player will not fold anyway so Dynasty probably has a smaller pocket pair than jacks and wants the good player out.

[DcifrThs]

I haven't read any posts yet so here goes:

your 3betting hands against this player: tt, jj, qq, kk, aa, ako(s). i'm assuming you call b/c of the weak player in and to invite others with aqs and other suited aces and pairs to create a volume pot. maybe even tt is out of that 3 betting catagory but i'll leave it in for now.

now, given how you played, with what hands would you now raise on the turn. HERE tt drops. no way you'd do that on the turn with tt, its just too likely hed have a higher pair. you COULD, however, semibluff raise here with AKs clubs. and against that hand he should 3 bet you. but he won't because you coul dhave qq, kk, aa which would also likely be played in the same way. 1 way for AcKc, 6 ways for the 3 higher pairs, and 1 way for a tie of jj. 10.5 bets on the flop, 16.5=8.25 bb's on the turn, 12.25bbs when it gets back to the hero with JJ. it would cost 2 now to call and check and call. so 2 bets to win (assuming weaky stays the whole way and loses to both of you) to win 16 includuing your calls. so 8:1 effective odds. but its 18 ways for the 3 higher pairs and 1 way for aks and 1 way for a jj tie (which i'll include as half a win) so 18:1.5 so 12:1 you're behind. hero should fold getting 8:1 effective odds.

thats posterior justification, something we don't have at the table. personally, against you dynasty theres just too many ways to be behind here and i fold. he should too. the only way calling is correct is if you can add additional hands to those with which you 3bet, bet the flop, call a c-r and then raise the turn. if you add tt, then you're looking at 18:7.5 and he should call the whole way since there are 6 ways for you to have tt. that gives him 2.4:1 getting 8:1 effective odds. one hand switches a call to a fold and vice versa...i guess if i'd seen you do tricky stuff like play AcQc the same way then id call or since its a protected pot you'd do some tricky stuff then ok...but again, tricky spot against a good player. i'd have to fold here though most of the time since you did 3bet preflop.

nice hand great post.

-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
Clark,

I 3-bet. Calling has to be the worst of the options.

I agree that calling is the worst option. However, what do you put Dynasty on that you are ahead. Precisely TT? Maybe, but doubtful, 88?


[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think Dynasty puts the fishy guy on? I'm guessing a draw, and that turn card didn't help a draw.

[DcifrThs]

c'mon clark...under what assumptions are you threebetting.

read my post and come back and tell me you 3bet dynasty here. the only way thats possible is if you KNOW and have seen him do other stuff that what i assume in my post.

this ain't the 4-8 and you don't have k2o so just lay it down man.
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

shemp,

read my post. 8:1 effective odds on the call down. 10% he thought his hand was good. thats 10/100 1/10 or 9:1. not enough.
-Barron

[andyfox]

"given how you played, with what hands would you now raise on the turn. HERE tt drops. no way you'd do that on the turn with tt, its just too likely hed have a higher pair."

But he didn't 4-bet pre-flop. So if he has a higher pair than tens, it ain't kings or aces, and probably not queens. Couldn't Dynasty, knowing hero is a thinking player, be sure he'd ahead of the 3rd player, but unsure if he's ahead of hero and seeing if hero will let go a slightly better hand than Dynasty's?

[DcifrThs]

dynasty 3 bet, jacks called, weaky called. no chance for dynasty to 4bet.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
c'mon clark...under what assumptions are you threebetting.

read my post and come back and tell me you 3bet dynasty here. the only way thats possible is if you KNOW and have seen him do other stuff that what i assume in my post.

this ain't the 4-8 and you don't have k2o so just lay it down man.
-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I've played with him a lot more anyone else on the forum, and I am definitively stating that 3-betting is the best play against him here. You aren't giving him enough credit.

[andyfox]

Cap is 5 bets in Vegas, which inhibits 4-betting. But I agree, Dynasty should feel hero doesn't have aces or kings, or even queens.

[andyfox]

I meant the guy with jacks didn't 4-bet. Because of this, Dynasty would not put him on a premium pocket pair.

[DcifrThs]

thats why i added what i did...i don't play with him. you do. you have a better read but if my assumptions are correct (which they obviously are not if 3betting is correct) then 3betting is thin if not dead wrong.

but again, YOU play with him so you know what he's capable of...i have to work off of assumptions which are not as good as 1st hand reads.

i love this thread though...good job dynasty.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
"given how you played, with what hands would you now raise on the turn. HERE tt drops. no way you'd do that on the turn with tt, its just too likely hed have a higher pair."

But he didn't 4-bet pre-flop. So if he has a higher pair than tens, it ain't kings or aces, and probably not queens. Couldn't Dynasty, knowing hero is a thinking player, be sure he'd ahead of the 3rd player, but unsure if he's ahead of hero and seeing if hero will let go a slightly better hand than Dynasty's?

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't even need to be "sure" he's ahead of the 3rd player to make raising correct if he can get "hero" to lay down a better hand. In fact, he doesn't need to even be "pretty sure" given the size of the pot.

[DcifrThs]

ah ha.

this is true. i might not be thinking on a high enough level here. i'm too rational and simplistic, you say. also, i didn't add in spiking a jack. 1 in 22.5 times so calling the turn or 3 betting may still be correct.

especially after clark, who plays with dynasty 3 bets. therefore 3betting seems to be more correct on experience assumptions than my play of folding.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

8:1 effective odds. calling here is the worst. if you're with clark you 3 bet. if you're with my original post (i feel now i may be moving into the 3 bet camp) then you fold.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

"i might not be thinking on a high enough level here."

That's what I meant when I said you weren't giving Dynasty enough credit. When playing against other good thinking players, you need to do a lot more just read his hand based on his actions. You need to think about what *his* read is, and how that might affect his actions. Feeney's book is very good at discussing these topics and if you haven't bought it yet, I recommend that you do.

[Tosh]

Thats what I was trying to get at with my response. Dynasty has played it to look like an overpair to take hero off a lower premium pair. He doesn't give him credit for queens-aces because of no preflop 4 bet and he feels this play will get him heads up.

[Senor Choppy]

It doesn't look like 88 or TT on the flop. A set, KK or AA seems possible but I don't think we'd be reading this if that's what it was /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think Dynasty had a very well played AKs.

[J.R.]

What do you think Dynasty puts the fishy guy on? I'm guessing a draw, and that turn card didn't help a draw.

Do weak players bet into preflop 3-bettors with a draws on this flop? My thought is not that often if at all, but maybe I misunderstand what "weak player" means in the context of a Mirage 20-40 game.

Dynasty's play makes sense to me if Dynasty has overcards and thinks he can get it heads up against the weak player's draw and/or get both of his opponent's to fold on the turn, but I am struggling to see how Dynasty either:

1) reads the weak player for a draw given his flop bet (Don't weak players check-call draws?) or

2) expects weak player and the flop check-raiser (who likely has an overpair below AA or KK given the action so far) to fold to this non-scary turn card given the previous action and large pot size.

I do see value in getting the hero to fold his likely jacks or tens if only some of the time weak player has a draw, as the pot is large, but does the parlay of the weak player having a draw and hero folding a probable overpair happen often enough for this play to be profitable?

[DcifrThs]

I have bought it, and read it, and highly recommend it. unfortunately i don't have the practice in spots like this. i'm now used to this garbage party 15/30 where i can play with one eye closed and click the mouse with my nose and still win money. i need to get out there and really play with you guys to get at this level.

Dynasty is likely thinking hero has a pair under aa or kk, as stated. aks would be great played this way. as would aa or kk. but i think its really important to be able to say with what range of hands dynasty 3 bets preflop in this spot before all the higher level flop/turn thinking comes into play. what say you good sir?
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

Depends somewhat on what Dynasty's read was on MP, i.e. just how much Dynasty thought MP would open up his raising standards given that it was folded to him that close to the button.

I'd give Dynasty something like AA-TT, AK and AQ here.

But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot. KK should also be downgraded slightly, but not eliminated. A straight Bayesian analysis doesn't work.

[Clarkmeister]

"Do weak players bet into preflop 3-bettors with a draws on this flop? "

My experience is that they almost always have a draw. They like to slowplay their monsters, but think a draw is a great "bluffing" situation (especially with all rags on the board) since they don't mind if they get raised.

[oddjob]

i'm going to take a possibly really bad guess and put you, dynasty, on pocket 99's, the weak player on a higher pocket pair then my JJs, possibly on a flush draw, and think my hand is no good, and muck. i know a lot of people will think this is a horrible lay down, but i'm thinking i'm beat by at least one maybe both players.

[James282]

The important thing to realize about playing Dynasty, and other experts, is that they know they are capable of so accurately representing a hand that they can make moves on winning players. Many decent poker players will only play aces, kings, or queens this way against typical opponents. The fact that Dynasty went out of his way to mention that the other player was one who can beat the game(and inevitably has some basic hand reading skills and can thus lay down a hand) makes me believe that he can think to himself, "self, if I don't get 4 bet preflop, I am representing aces or kings against the decent player so I can attempt to isolate the poor player inbetween us." In a real time situation I doubt I would have the courage to 3 bet him, but I can certainly understand the rationale in doing so.

At the highest level, you have to at least give Dynasty credit for knowing that his opponent knows that good players wouldn't try to make a move on 2 players at once without the goods. "Dynasty must know I have an overpair, but since I didn't four-bet preflop it's probably not aces or kings. Yeah, easy fold!" Now the fish check-folds his JT or middling clubs on the river and we have no clue what happened! The way it sounds like it played out, his opponent chose the worst of all options and called, and Dynasty hit a K or an A on the river and his opponent proudly displayed his "sucked out on" jacks to the "overaggressive" Dynasty /images/graemlins/wink.gif
-James

P.S. Clark, if you were four-bet by Dynasty, would you finally give him credit for the big PP? Or is he capable of four-betting you with just overcards too? Eep!

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

well yes, but the turn raise is not to blow mp out of the pot. its to 1) get more money in with the best hand, 2) get heads up with mp, or 3) try to get a free showdown from the c-r'er (unlikely). i don't see why eliminating a weak player would be good. eliminating the hero is probably where he was headed given what i now know.

and no, my straight bayesian crap won't work here, but i don't see why you are downgrading aa and kk because of the turn raise...that is how i would play those two hands quite often because 3 betting the flop would decrease the likelihood of the c-r'er betting out the turn and i want those big bets from him and the weaky before i raise again.

-Barron

[JTG51]

It seems like Dynasty is going to have AA or KK (QQ and TT don't seem likely without a flop raise) here a lot of the time, but is also going to be making a move with a hand worse than JJ, trying to make me fold in this 'protected pot', often enough that folding is wrong. It also seems highly likely that JJ is ahead of the middle player, so we'd like to collect some extra bets from him. I like a 3-bet.

Against a player less creative than Dynasty, I'd like a fold.

Edit: added TT to first sentence.

[James282]

Thinking the MP has you beat is pretty weak-tight IMO.
-James

[CrackerZack]

Why do you take away TT on the turn? A gut shot + over pair is a big hand. Also I personally think Dynasty's 3-betting range is larger than you give. Anyway, I agree with your fold but its because I think he could have 99,77 along with an over pair (TT-AA) and AKc and maybe AQc. I think its close but fold.

[oddjob]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm going to take a possibly really bad guess and put you, dynasty, on pocket 99's, the weak player on a higher pocket pair then my JJs, possibly on a flush draw, and think my hand is no good, and muck. i know a lot of people will think this is a horrible lay down, but i'm thinking i'm beat by at least one maybe both players.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually i'd like to explain my reasoning for this guess.

dynasty sees a good player raise first in from MP, which could be with a wide variety of hands. and then a weak loose cold caller. so he 3 bets with pocket 99s, knowing that there won't be many other cold callers, and thinking his hand is best.

the flop kinda speaks for itself. flopping a set, and having a weak player bet out with a possible draw. he obviously cold calls trying to extract the most on the flop. luckily the good player CR's, and they both call.

the turn is obvious at this point, with this line of thinking.

of course i'm probably way off course, as i don't play this limit and have never played with dynasty

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you take away TT on the turn? A gut shot + over pair is a big hand. Also I personally think Dynasty's 3-betting range is larger than you give. Anyway, I agree with your fold but its because I think he could have 99,77 along with an over pair (TT-AA) and AKc and maybe AQc. I think its close but fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

i was thinking in the classic bayesian hand reading fashion. this line of thinking doesn't work against creative players like dynsatsy, as pointed out by clark. this is one of the reasons why great players have higher variance than good players. good players here fold as a result of classic reading. great players playing each other, or good players vs. great players (as in this spot) have more manueverability and can make a play like this without the best hand. if the JJ player was great then he'd probably 3bet as i think i would now given dynasty's likely reads. these plays increase variance but also increase your win rate.

-Barron

[oddjob]

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking the MP has you beat is pretty weak-tight IMO.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right. most likely a flush draw, but i see weak players with big overpairs play just like this all the time (but not at this level, so i can't say for sure).

if i'm not certain of these reads then i 3-bet and fold to a dynasty 4 bet only if the weak player cold calls 2 more.

[JTG51]

Don't you think Dynasty would usually raise hands like QQ and TT on the flop to try to knock Hero's probable overcards out?

[BaronVonCP]

This is a great example of thinking on that higher level.

Anyways, i'm just waiting for the results. Weaky player is going to have a boat. Or quads. That would be funny.

[nykenny]

i think it can be simple.

call and lead the river if 9 or club does come /images/graemlins/smile.gif. call a raise on the river from Dynasty, doh.

hero: "Dynasty must have put me on AcKc, AQc, AJc, ATc", but "he could have 99 or AA otherwise the AKc him self...". "maybe Dynasty has JJ, and he put me on JJ correctly and thinking he could knock me off the hand or chop (freerolling)." "damn, i am too confused. it seems like Dynasty should have precisely 99... to not raise or cap on flop."

[Joe Tall]

What do you think Dynasty puts the fishy guy on?

At first I thought, 'why the fck is he asking a question to answer mine? Thanks for nothing Clark.'

But now, I get it. So Dynasty gets a player like me to fold the best hand, with the weak player what is most likely a club draw maybe holding the 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif.

I failed to realize that Dynasty's non-raise of the weak player's flop bet is key.

What a great hand and a great way to post it. I now 3-bet.

Thanks again, Clark,
Joe Tall

[Luke]

Maybe I'm missing some obvious (or not so obvious) reasons but why would Hero want to 3-bet the turn? Hero has to at least think there's a better than 50% chance that he's behind Dynasty's hand at this point. Do you think this raise will knock weakie off a draw? Are you planning to fold to a 4-bet?

Luke

[Luke]

But now, I get it. So Dynasty gets a player like me to fold the best hand, with the weak player what is most likely a club draw maybe holding the 8 .

I failed to realize that Dynasty's non-raise of the weak player's flop bet is key.

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this. So much to the point that you (the Hero) think you're ahead of him on the turn. If so, then I see the reason to 3-bet. I guess I'm just not used to situations like this (playing against an opponent capable of thinking on multiple levels).

Luke

[Joe Tall]

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this. So much to the point that you (the Hero) think you're ahead of him on the turn. If so, then I see the reason to 3-bet.

Clark had to point me into that direction and I think the 3-bet is correct, yes.

I guess I'm just not used to situations like this (playing against an opponent capable of thinking on multiple levels).

Me neither. But this is precisely why it's a great post and precisely why Dynasty posted it. It's beyond most of us and a great teaching thread.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[JTG51]

Is it really THAT likely that Dynasty is pulling a move like this.

Don't forget the pot is getting pretty big and Hero has two outs if he's behind. I'll let someone else do the match, but Dynasty doesn't have to be making a move all that often to make folding a mistake.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't you think Dynasty would usually raise hands like QQ and TT on the flop to try to knock Hero's probable overcards out?

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree. this is why in my other reply i was thinking of AA or 99 or AQc (or the like) for dynasty...

dynasty could be trying for a free showdown play tooooooo...

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot. KK should also be downgraded slightly, but not eliminated. A straight Bayesian analysis doesn't work.


[/ QUOTE ]

why would Dynasty's turn raise blow the MP out?

Kenny

[CrackerZack]

TT probably, QQ no, you have to put him specifically on AK then, its more likely you want him to continue on. I'll add TT toe the less likely list.

[goofball]

you 3bet preflop, just called my flop checkraise, but now you are raising the turn when the board pairs?

i'm looking down at my jacks and they don't look so hot anymore.
in my mind this turn raise means one of 3 things.

a) the turn hit you.
b) you flopped a big hand
c) you are getting very agressive with something like AK, trying to steal it by representing a.
d) you are overplaying top pair or your weak overpair



a) for the flop to hit you that means you were playing a 7, but you had 3 bet preflop. to think you would 3 bet with something like A7s or 78s or i would have to know you as very LAG. since i don't know that option a doesn't seem likely.

b) with what hands could you have flopped a monster. T8, 99, 77, 66
the above reasoning eliminates T8, 77, 66. and although a tight agressive player can 3bet 99 preflop i wouldn't count it as too likely.
with AA, the flop didn't hit you but it is still a strong hand you could be waitin until the turn to raise. if you are holding AA you will put all the bets in preflop you can (you did), and you might jsut wait until the turn to raise, you did.

c)unless i knew you were a fool i wuoldn't count on you getting way too happy with your overcards

d) again it depends on what i know about you. but i have a hard time seeing anyone but a very agressive player waitin until the turn to raise with TPTK (not to mention 3betting PF with A9s). Someone with TT could be getting agressive to try to drive out higher overpairs and hoping only hands like top pair will call.

anyway, i you are likely to have
AA
TT
99

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
why would Dynasty's turn raise blow the MP out?


[/ QUOTE ]

Because the Hero might 3-bet and knock him out.
-James

[JTG51]

But situational probability should lead us to downgrade the chances of AA to near zero because he'd have no reason to blow MP out of the pot.

But if Dynasty puts the third player on a draw then the turn is often his last chance to collect an extra bet from him, so raising the turn with AA figures to be worth about the same as waiting till the river to raise.

[cwl]

im trying to understand what the main motivation to 3 bet here is. as i see it the 3 bet has value if one of two things is true:
1) its likely enough that JJ is the best hand that an extra bet or two is gained from a likely worse hand.
2) its likely enough that the 3 bet will cause him to fold a better hand or a hand with enough outs to beat us to justify the bet.

im wondering to what extent each of these plays into the decision to 3 bet. is there another reason to 3 bet that im missing? im not optimisitc enough about JJ's chances of being the best hand to want to put more bets than i have too in here unless there is a reasonable chance this will increase my chances of winning the pot but im having a hard time coming up with many hands that i want to fold that would fold to the 3 bet. of dynasty's potential pre-flop 3 bet hands about the only ones that i would think might fold to a 3 bet here would be AK/AQ not of clubs but im not sure how likely these are given how the hand has played out already. anymore explanation from the 3 bet camp would be greatly appreciated.

[Gabe]

I may be wrong, but I'd tend to put you on a hand with some draw in it, TT, maybe AcKc. I'd be inclinded to raise.

[China Willy]

[ QUOTE ]
Do what you can to just call on the flop, then raise 2 guys on the turn. I think I lay down a couple kings here, expecting to see aces a bazillion percent of the time.

~D


[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what he wants you to think. Great laydown.

[Dynasty]

Here's some food for thought. It's a link to a hand I played aginast majorkong (Ed Miller).

Hawaiian Gardens 4-8: Dynasty vs. majorkong (Ed Miller) (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=563999& Forum=smallholdem&Words=Dynasty&Match=Username&Sea rchpage=0&Limit=999&Old=3months&Main=563999&Search =true#Post563999)

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Feeney's book is very good at discussing these topics and if you haven't bought it yet, I recommend that you do.

[/ QUOTE ]

But as you know, there is a big difference in just reading it and seeing it in practice. This is where i got hung up. I think i actually had the right read, but since i rarely play against someone like this, there was a conflict for me as for what to do. Like i didnt believe it was actually happening. The old,' ...could he be? naawwww...' crap.

Im curious enough to call since i may still be in the lead, but not confident enough to 3 bet here. Unless im willing to fold for a 4 bet.

But after reading through the thread so far, I guess it's a raise/fold spot. If you're going to call it, raise it. Which the more i think about it, and i thought about it ALL DAMN DAY /images/graemlins/tongue.gif, a raise is the play.

I also remember dyno posting a hand kind of like this awhile ago where he did this with something like AQ. I think that hand involved you in the pot also, if i remember right.

So, at first read, i pussed out and called like a little girl sucking a lollipop.

Good thread.

b

[bernie]

This is the thread i was thinking of. I thought it was with clark instead of kong though.

I am kind of suprised that most are not including AQ or AK in your hand possibilities. Then again, if i didnt see that thread earlier, i might've discounted it also.

Whether you do or not, i have a question for ya that can pertain to the old thread.

Lets say you know the hero knows you're capable of this play and he 3 bets. Could you possibly 4 bet here knowing that he may be putting you on said hand, but may fold for the 4th bet? Or would that be asking too much for him to fold at that point and he may as well just call down? The guy in the middle calling with his likely draw caught in between.

b

[Jive Dadson]

I've promised myself to cut back on offering up my opinions (which been received with less than universal praise), but I'm kind of interested in what the outcome was. It's sort of like a movie. Maybe the hero dies or maybe he triumphs, but either way, you kind of want to see it.

[Luke]

Me neither. But this is precisely why it's a great post and precisely why Dynasty posted it. It's beyond most of us and a great teaching thread.

No doubt.

Great thread Dynasty. And great input from the usual cast of posters. Thanks to everyone.

Luke

[Tommy Angelo]

I think the hero should have reraised or folded before the flop, either way making the hand a lot easier to play I think.

Tommy

[slavic]

For some reason I keep thinking along the line that Dynasty was a stud player. Since he'll have a hard time bluffing on the river with a weaker player in I call. Our hero however has no idea of Dynasty's past abuses of the protected pot so if he's as well read as we think I can't see how he continues on except maybe for image. So he spikes a Jack on the river goes for a check raise and it checks through.

[Gabe]

The difference, it would seem to me, is that on that one you had something credible to represent. Of course, I guess in Vegas it is possible to represent sets.

I did cross my mind that you were making the raise the draw to get the best hand to fold play, but I dismissed it.

[Luke]

Hero raises with J /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. A weak, overly-loose player on his immediate left cold-calls. I'm next to act and 3-bet. Everybody else folds back to Hero who calls. Weak player also calls.

Tommy:
I think the hero should have reraised or folded before the flop, either way making the hand a lot easier to play I think.

Tommy, did you read the thread right? Are you saying Hero should 4-bet or fold his jacks? That just seems wrong.

Luke

[Dynasty]

Hero called with his JJ and the MP weak player called as well. Three players saw the turn with 14.25 big bets in the pot.

The river is: 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/heart.gif6/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero checked. MP checked. I bet. Hero called. MP called with his last chips.

I showed K/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif and took the pot. MP inexplicably showed K/images/graemlins/heart.gif8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Hero seemed very upset with himself after this hand. He took a walk right after this hand, missing three free hands. I guess he figured he had an easy fold on the turn and was upset that he didn't make it.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I've played with him a lot more anyone else on the forum, and I am definitively stating that 3-betting is the best play against him here. You aren't giving him enough credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was definitely an ideal opportunity to make a bluff turn raise with an unimproved AK. The situation was perfect.

1. I 3-bet pre-flop.
2. The MP was clearly on draw
3. Hero is capable of hand reading and might laydown a hand.

If I had AK in that spot, I suspect I would have used the play.

Strangely, my turn play was standard and it was actually my flop play which was somewhat unconventional. With Hero not 4-betting pre-flop, I absolutely eliminated AA and KK from his holdings. So, when the flop came 9,7,6, I decided to misrepresent my hand there. By just calling the weak MP's bet, it looked like I had missed the flop.

I wanted to see if Hero would check-raise after seeing me only call. A check-raise would almost certainly mean and overpair of QQ, JJ, or TT. When he did, I knew exactly where he was.

Hero almost did fold on the turn. I guess he just wasn't confident enough in his read.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Do what you can to just call on the flop, then raise 2 guys on the turn. I think I lay down a couple kings here, expecting to see aces a bazillion percent of the time.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you've got JJ, you'll see AA/KK/QQ 18 times out of 34 times. The other 16 out of 34 times, you'll see AK.

So, it's basically a 50/50 proposition. How do you want to play against that?

[Jamie Collins]

Hello Dynasty,

An overpair is what I put you on but the better posters convinced me you could definitely be making a play at this pot with 10-10 or Ak/q of clubs.

But like I said in a post, if Mr. JJ had folded and you showed down 10-10 or Ak/q you couldn't get him to fold a better hand for a month.

So now the opposite is true: if you played the hand again later, then raising the turn with 10-10 or Ak/q would be much more likely to get him to fold JJ. Despite the fact you had KK, this thread helped me to realize that I need to think on higher levels and stay one step ahead of my opponent.

Something that usually isn't required in on-line mid-limits.

Regards,
Jamie

[Softrock]

But you see this is the beauty of being a good player. Opponents know you're capable of making a move so they are confused. Does he really have a hand that big or is he making a move? It may well be a weakness in my play but in this sort of situation I would rarely lay down JJ with that board and I would be too afraid of being outplayed to 3-bet the turn against someone like Dynasty.

Here's my question - given our knowledge that Dynasty is quite capable of making a move here how do you decide when or if to fold JJ?

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
I need to think on higher levels and stay one step ahead of my opponent.

Something that usually isn't required in on-line mid-limits.


[/ QUOTE ]

u right. not required

[talkinghead]

[ QUOTE ]

Dynasty is likely thinking hero has a pair under aa or kk, as stated.

[/ QUOTE ]

From Dynasty's point of view there is a far wider range of hands that this guy could be playing than just pocket pairs, ok we know he's pocket jacks but he could have a hand like KQs and his check raise on the flop was to put pressure on dynasty's probable AKo(s). Hoping that it was dynasty who put in the flop bet so his raise could have a greater chance of forcing the middle player out. Dynasty (IMHO) doen't just need AKs and four flush to make this play, just AK, so I'm definately in the three bet camp.

[talkinghead]

Hadn't read the resolution when I posted that, if i was hero i'd be upset with myself at calling though. With the Kings would dynasty have four bet a three bet?
If he does I lay it down.
Although in the three bet camp myself, perhaps in the heat of the moment i would have folded, the reason being the game was lucrative with one other good player, i'm choosing not to get involved with him if i can help it but concentrate on the fishies.

[Clarkmeister]

"This was definitely an ideal opportunity to make a bluff turn raise with an unimproved AK. The situation was perfect.

1. I 3-bet pre-flop.
2. The MP was clearly on draw
3. Hero is capable of hand reading and might laydown a hand.

If I had AK in that spot, I suspect I would have used the play"

I have no doubt you would have made that play. What I think many people in here are missing is that #2 is the key factor here.

[Jamie Collins]

Hello softrock,

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my question - given our knowledge that Dynasty is quite capable of making a move here how do you decide when or if to fold JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's exactly what I was pondering. So I'll let our other esteemed posters comment.

My thoughts: Clarkmeister noted he would 3-bet. Something I didn't consider. Usually when I'm confused, which I sometimes am in Mr. JJ's place....I go into a shell and check-call (which some posters noted would be the worst option here).

Calling in this spot usually produces 2 results after the showdown:
I'm upset I payed off the good player like a slot machine.
or
I'm upset I didn't get more money in the pot.

I'd be interested to know how the 3-bettors would proceed if 4-bet ........and if they pay off all river cards.

Regards,
Jamie

[DcifrThs]

this is one of those situations where you are out of position against dynasty with a good but not great hand.

BUT, its made easier by the preflop play. in my first post on this subject i was convinced that my bayesian analysis was correct and scoffed at the 3betting tactic because dynasty 3bet a good and a weaker player preflop expecting a cap or at least a call. that means his hands with which to get tricky with later on have been limited. he would not 3bet here with AcQc and i am pretty sure about that.

so, as per my original post, AcKc, an unimproved AK (since mp is drawing) or overpair are the likely hands. one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say. this good play c-r'd dynasty indicating for sure and big pair. TT is the only hand that could be beaten by every c-ring hand held by the early good player. thus TT is gone.

this leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK as i originally thought. but clark is right that he can make a move here with ak knowing weaky will call down. at my current state of ability i would have folded that live against dynasty and would have been pretty sure i'd be shown QQ-AA or AK. of course i'd be upset one way or the other or happy but this play IS SO CLOSE that theres no way to be 100% either way.

THIS is the answer to your question: you can't know. you fold on the turn or you 3bet. if he CALLS your 3bet or 4bets you have to be ready to release. you've now indicated with your 3bet you will not release your overpair and are prepared to go the distance. if he calls/raises he is saying ok, well since you won't release i may as well get as many bets as possible from the mp weaky and you or increase the chance of you calling the river. you must then check and fold the river if no A or K hits. this i feel very confident about.

if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

NOW, against a GREAT player, the river bet is more of an issue if it comes as it did, a blank. but the good player (as shown) won't lay down JJ.

sorry for the long post.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

"one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say"

You did notice Dynasty's 6 outs and the size of the pot didn't you? On top of that, he certainly has at least 2BBs worth of implied odds to boot. Folding TT on the flop would be bad poker.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Dynasty is likely thinking hero has a pair under aa or kk, as stated.

[/ QUOTE ]

From Dynasty's point of view there is a far wider range of hands that this guy could be playing than just pocket pairs, ok we know he's pocket jacks but he could have a hand like KQs and his check raise on the flop was to put pressure on dynasty's probable AKo(s). Hoping that it was dynasty who put in the flop bet so his raise could have a greater chance of forcing the middle player out. Dynasty (IMHO) doen't just need AKs and four flush to make this play, just AK, so I'm definately in the three bet camp.

[/ QUOTE ]

with respect to the c-r'ing to eliminate the mp weaky, i want to stand up and say, "WRONG." but since that is uncivilized and in poor taste i will say i strongly disagree with your point.

if i'm the good player, why in the world would i want to eliminate a player who may possibly insure that the better player with position won't get tricky (or AS tricky) when i have a hand like KQs like you say. i only want to make the weaky pay more when he's behind and if he has a 9 hes not behind KQs so c-ring here is, IMO, not a good idea without a pair.

further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me because i'd be aiming for a volume pot and drawing the weak players in. dynasty is not likely to cold call bets here to create that pot. he'll fold or likely 3bet. if i raise, the weaky cold calls and dynasty looks to his left and sees players loading up and i see him eyeing those players then i can put him on a wider range of hands if he cold calls. but either way KQs is not strong enoguh to raise with here.

the c-r by the good player indicates pair under AA, KK. i know this because i've been there. when you're playing in a game and have identified that there are great players behind you, you tighten up significantly up front with your raising hands. at least i do. maybe 3-7% of hands i raise with up front, and most of those are pairs (class wise, not bayesian wise.) thus, when the flop comes rags and i feel my hand is best, i'm going to c-r here b/c i expect the player to bet his ak as well as his other pairs. thats why the CALL on the flop by dynasty was the real good move here. it throws him off and elicited 2 big bets worth of calls by the THREAT of him being tricky.

but 3betting the turn is still right because you can then safely fold to the river when you're behind and not risk giving cheap cards to AKs or AKo. this is why great players' variance is higher than that of good players/decent players. and while you can say that 3betting and call/check calling costs the same, i say it doesn't. your cost is giving AKc or AKo a cheaper card when he does have those hands, as he will 16 times at most. it also reduces the need to call the river. if he bets that AK on the river after i 3bet with my jacks it is HE who is making the mistake by betting the river. not me. i know this because hed have to expect to be called by both players (but really just the good one, since the weaky could conceivably call with less than ak here) when he bets the river. the 3 bet in my mind, insures he can't bet the river without a better hand.

now i may be wrong as i'm not a great, or even very good player but that is how i feel right now.

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

title of post: "the full treatment, i hope"

clarks point:

[ QUOTE ]
You did notice Dynasty's 6 outs and the size of the pot didn't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

barron's response:

"uhh, hmmm..."

barron's feeling:

like that student who forgets to differentiate ln x^2 in a string of differentiation by parts and trigonometric differentiations when the teacher marks the answer wrong after 45 mintues of work.

damn you clark.
-Barron

[Clarkmeister]

"further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me "

When you have a single very tight player behind you who will only 3-bet or fold, you should be raising more hands, not less.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]

Although in the three bet camp myself, perhaps in the heat of the moment i would have folded, the reason being the game was lucrative with one other good player, i'm choosing not to get involved with him if i can help it but concentrate on the fishies.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe dynasty sees this and raises his nut no pair to get you out /images/graemlins/smirk.gif
-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm wrong here. the reward for dynasty betting ak and me folding jacks is a quite large pot. the cost is one bet.

therefore i must call.

similarly, i think that while this is a great example and fantastic thread, since its so close we could just choose to do it at random.

in fact, i'd just look at my cellphone as if i had a call that needed silencing (i dont wear a watch), check the time and say if the calling set is in {0,1,2,3,4} and the time is xx:x5 i lay it down on the turn to the raise. HERE is where you can lay it down because its 9:1 vs. 8:1 ....so close that randomness works...or you can just add another number to the calling/folding set.

-Barron

[Inthacup]

What I think many people in here are missing is that #2 is the key factor here


ok. #2 seems rather obvious given the action. #3 seems like the key factor to me. This thread's pretty long and maybe I missed it, but you thing #2 is more important than #3?



Cup

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
"further, KQs is NOT a hand i RAISE with preflop against dynasty here when he's behind me "

When you have a single very tight player behind you who will only 3-bet or fold, you should be raising more hands, not less.

[/ QUOTE ]

true again. eventually i'll say something right...just gotta keep at it. but thank you for taking the time to correct these mistakes as i'll get it...and when i do, better watch out /images/graemlins/wink.gif lol. but for now if i see you, coilean, dynasty et al. taking up 4-5 seats in a game, you can be SURE that is NOT a game i'll be joining...unless its 4-8 in which case i'd saddle up. then straddle up and let loooooose /images/graemlins/grin.gif which would drive players out of the game shaking there heads in confusion.

the point i was getting at is that i don't feel comfortable with a great player behind me and would tighten up. but thats wrong because hes so tight that a call might get him to call behind the weak player with a hand that i'd rather him fold when i raise just to get him out of the pot (since if his hand is worse than mine and he'd be taking the worst of it now to get the best of it later).

-Barron

[adios]

Thanks for the analysis. Hope this reply is taken in the spirit that it's intended which is a critique of your thinking from my point of view FWIW:

[ QUOTE ]
BUT, its made easier by the preflop play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably true.

[ QUOTE ]
in my first post on this subject i was convinced that my bayesian analysis was correct and scoffed at the 3betting tactic because dynasty 3bet a good and a weaker player preflop expecting a cap or at least a call. that means his hands with which to get tricky with later on have been limited.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
he would not 3bet here with AcQc and i am pretty sure about that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt if it's that limited though.

[ QUOTE ]
so, as per my original post, AcKc, an unimproved AK (since mp is drawing) or overpair are the likely hands. one thing i did not fully take into account was the fact that he CALLED the checkraise. this eliminates TT in my mind no matter what people say. this good play c-r'd dynasty indicating for sure and big pair. TT is the only hand that could be beaten by every c-ring hand held by the early good player. thus TT is gone.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't think I'd make this conclusion Clarkmeister addressed it.

[ QUOTE ]
this leaves JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK as i originally thought. but clark is right that he can make a move here with ak knowing weaky will call down. at my current state of ability i would have folded that live against dynasty and would have been pretty sure i'd be shown QQ-AA or AK. of course i'd be upset one way or the other or happy but this play IS SO CLOSE that theres no way to be 100% either way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the size of the pot and the possible hands I don't think it's close at all. You're in there for the showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
THIS is the answer to your question: you can't know. you fold on the turn or you 3bet. if he CALLS your 3bet or 4bets you have to be ready to release. you've now indicated with your 3bet you will not release your overpair and are prepared to go the distance. if he calls/raises he is saying ok, well since you won't release i may as well get as many bets as possible from the mp weaky and you or increase the chance of you calling the river. you must then check and fold the river if no A or K hits. this i feel very confident about.

[/ QUOTE ]

One of the reasons to consider 3 betting the turn is to knock out the draw IMO. What the extra bets will cost you vs. the chances of knocking out the draw and how much it will save you if you do knock out the draw is what you to evaluate. If this hand were heads up I wouldn't 3 bet in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
if you 3bet the turn, you check and fold the river as i just prescribed. if dynasty bets the river w/ AK after you check following your 3bet HE is making a mistake. he will NOT be called by the good player enough with a worse hand to make the bet profitable NOR will he release a good hand enough here to make a bluff profitable.

NOW, against a GREAT player, the river bet is more of an issue if it comes as it did, a blank. but the good player (as shown) won't lay down JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a blank comes on the river I don't think you lay down JJ in this situation.

[DcifrThs]

Thank you for taking that time to go over my post.

i made some glaring mistakes there, most notably TT call elimination and the river check fold blanked. i addressed both of those with clark and my "oops" post respectively.

this is a region of playing space where the frontier for correct actions is hypersensitive and i'm not used to being in that space so i appreciate all criticisms.

thanks again
-Barron

[SinCityGuy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I need to think on higher levels and stay one step ahead of my opponent.

Something that usually isn't required in on-line mid-limits.


[/ QUOTE ]

u right. not required

[/ QUOTE ]

Good thing, right Kenny? It would be kind of hard to stay one step ahead of your opponents while playing 8 tables at a time. /images/graemlins/wink.gif