AK for worm33

[Vehn]

Since he's still trying to get unstuck at the moment here's a hand he played that we argued about. 30/60 at Canterbury. Very straightforward/readable player open raises 3 off the button. Loose semi-aggressive coldcalls in the CO. Mike 3-bets on the button with AK and both players call. Flop is Q T 8 with 2 spades, its checked to him, he bets, both players call. Turn is a brick and its checked to him. Who bets/who checks? If I screwed this hand up he'll correct me around 5am when he gets out of his hole.

[James Boston]

I'll say go ahead and bet again. He's the only player in the hand who's shown alot of strength, and no one has played back at him. The only other player to raise was described as a pretty ABC player. So, he's probably not got a hand, given that he's calling down. It seems like he could take the pot down right there, and if called he's got 10 outs.

[glen]

hi vehn,

Bet.

[Clarkmeister]

You check.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Since he's still trying to get unstuck at the moment here's a hand he played that we argued about. 30/60 at Canterbury. Very straightforward/readable player open raises 3 off the button. Loose semi-aggressive coldcalls in the CO. Mike 3-bets on the button with AK and both players call. Flop is Q T 8 with 2 spades, its checked to him, he bets, both players call. Turn is a brick and its checked to him. Who bets/who checks? If I screwed this hand up he'll correct me around 5am when he gets out of his hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

Welcome to Gutshot Hell.

OK, let's give your opponents some hands.

Possible hand #1: AJ. Just on the fringe of getting odds enough to call the turn bet. But that's beside the point because you're ahead against this hand. Preferred action: BET.

Possible hand #2: JJ. Will probably call the turn with 6 presumed outs + some possibility that it is best. Will probably call the river too, unless an A or a K comes, which doesn't really help you very much. Preferred action: CHECK.

Possible hand #3: 99. This hand is ahead of you but you might stand a chance of folding it out. Its gutshot draw is not to the nuts, it's set outs are dirty, and it probably doesn't figure that it's ahead at the moment. Preferred action: BET.

Possible hand #4: AT. This hand could be ahead, but might not recognize that it is, and called one small bet on the flop hoping to make trips or two pair. Some opponents won't fold this to a turn bet, and some will, but since the reward of inducing a fold far outweighs the cost of putting an additional bet in, I think the preferred action is to BET.

Possible hand #5: KJ. Has an easy call on the flop with presumed 8-outer, and will also certainly call the turn. But since you're ahead you obviously prefer to BET.

Those are, I think, the 5 holdings you'll be up against most often. I'm assuming that your opponents are not so passive as to check-and-call with top pair on the flop, nor so aggressive as to wait to check-raise the turn with something like a set, though of course the latter assumption is somewhat dubious; a check-raise is problematic for you here because of the presence of the gutshot draw and the potential for a check-raise semibluff.

All in all, though, it seems to me that betting is the better play. Which is interesting, because my instinct lately has been to check in these spots.

[Steve Giufre]

This should be a check, and it shouldnt be close. I've been doing so much thinking about these turn situations lately, because I think some of these spots can be really tricky. The AK here has showdown value. If you had 3-bet KJ instead, then off course betting would be right because you wuold have a legimate shot at folding a better hand. True a turn bet here may get an opponent off of a middle pair, but not much else. I would take the free card and hope it gets checked through on the river if I dont improve. If you then feel like someone may be taking a shot at you if a blank hits on the end, nothing wrong with calling down either. I would go as far as to say that checking would probably even be right agaist one opponent. This board is too cordinated, somebody has some of this, and it would be a shame to be checkraised here, because if you are, you certainly do not have 10 clean outs, and you will probably have to muck it.

The only reason I have been putting the bet in some of these spots on the turn lately when it is heads up is become so many players in my game will always try to steal it on the river after I check it on the turn. So the only question is wether it is better to put the bet in on the turn and check the river, or check and induce the bluff on the river. I guess it just depends how draw heavy the board is, and how likely your opponent is to try to take it away from you if you check it to him when you are out of position. OK, I'm done rambling.

[SinCityGuy]

I would check and take the free card.

On an uncoordinated board, I would be more inclined to bet.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll say go ahead and bet again. He's the only player in the hand who's shown alot of strength, and no one has played back at him. The only other player to raise was described as a pretty ABC player. So, he's probably not got a hand, given that he's calling down. It seems like he could take the pot down right there, and if called he's got 10 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the likelihood that the ABC player who openraised has nothing? He could easily have a hand as "strong" as 99 or JJ but got spooked by Hero's PF three-bet, and is calling down precisely because he has some kind of hand. Futhermore, in the event that ABC's hand is as weak as a AJ or AT, a bet might get him to fold, although it also means that not all of Hero's ten outs are clean.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]

On an uncoordinated board, I would be more inclined to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reverse is true. You should be more inclined to bet on a *coordinated* board. On an uncoordinated board, your opponents almost certainly have a pair if they're staying in; if you have a reputation as an aggressive player, as most 2+2ers will, they'll be more than content to check-and-call the whole way, sometimes turning over a winner at showdown, and other times being slightly embarassed when their pair of 5s loses to a set of Queens.

On a coordinated board, it is more likely that your opponent holds a hand that doesn't beat yours, or doesn't believe that it beats yours, even if all you hold is the nut no-pair hand. It is also more likely that your opponents will muck something like bottom pair if their draw doesn't come through *but only if you show strength the whole way*.

Another consideration is that your outs are less likely to be clean on a coordinated board, which makes the free card less valuable.

Believe me, I fully understand the merits of checking the turn through. I make that play a *lot*, and I consider it to be one of the best ways to use your positional advantage. Sometimes I wonder if I don't make that play too much, since I've occasionally caught opponents hanging around with undercards or some such, and winning with a river card those times that I elect to showdown my no-pair hand. If your opponent knows that he will frequently get a free card on the turn, he has more incentive to stick around with marignal holdings, possibly including something as thin as a runner-runner draw, and certainly with something like a gutshot.

I've also posted some examples of *particular holdings that your opponents are likely to have in this hand*, and why, in most of those cases, a bet would be preferrable to a check.

btw, the fact that there are two opponents is helpful here, because it makes an opponent with a weak *made* holding more likely to fold, because he figures that he has to beat two opponents to do so. If by betting the turn, you get bottom pair to fold, while retaining the strong drawing hand, that's a huge victiory for you those times that the draw doesn't come through.

[shemp]

I tend to check, but I've bet here some, partly because semi-aggressive usually means passive on big-bet streets, and I feel like I've narrowed straightforward down to a narrow range of hands, only a couple big enough to c/r. But discretion says giving a free card to AJ if that is it isn't a crime, because you can fold to very straightforward's bet on the river, and his equity may be higher with that hand than yours considering the interloper, anyway, and he's committed with lesser hands that are ahead of you. You really want to see the river, but it's tough to value your hand/draw right now, so you check. Or you bet. I'm easy. When you bet you'll wish you checked, and when you check you'll wish you bet!

Just trying to help, sir.

[Your Mom]

Sometimes I bet, sometimes I check. Some of this depends on my current image. If I've been showing winners lately, I bet. If I have been caught bluffing a lot, I check. I don't think either one can be called wrong.

[Coilean]

I would check. Odds anyone folds anything that legitimately called the flop here should be low to nil, your possibly nonexistent lead is too tenuous to have much equity on any money going in, and being check raised would just plain suck when you had a free shot at 10 outs of varying cleanliness.

[daryn]

i would check this one. you could be beaten, why not take the free card to hit one of your outs?

[worm33]

Well I did get home around 5 am. I hate poker. I've now realized what the worst feeling in the world is. When the game breaks and your buried. Anyway the flop was q109 if that makes any difference. My reasoning to check the turn here are pretty obvious I think, Its a way coordinated board somebody prolly has a pair and I know for sure one of these guys isnt folding a pair, and if they have a pair im not going to win un-improved. I dont want to get checkraised as I have probably 7 outs, (not counting the king because someone probably has a jack) and the coldcalling players loves to bluff. So I figured if a brick came in the river, i could induce a bluff from him. Which is exactly what happened. He turned over aj and my hand was good. UTG player also claimed to have AJ. I dunno I play bad.

[Clarkmeister]

"I dunno I play bad. "

I guess I play bad too.

[Steve Giufre]

Hi Nate,

I agree yuor oppenents will be more likely to call you with an uncordinated board if they do have a pair, but I also feel like AK is still in the lead after a lot of ragged flops, even agaist two or sometimes three oppenents. So I guess my argument for following through on the turn when 4 relative blanks are out there would be that you are making a value bet/protecting your hand, more than it would be to run someone off a marginal holding.