An interesting AJo

[bakku]

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed)
SB is TAG, no reads on the other players-they're all fairly new to the table

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls, <font color="CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets $3 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">SB caps</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players, 1 all-in) </font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, SB calls.

River: (16.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(4 players, 1 all-in) </font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 12 BB, between UTG+1, Hero and BB.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: 6.50 BB, between Hero and BB.</font>

[NightWalker5]

I think you played the PF and flop fine but the turn poses a major problem. You could be against trips, a straight, full house, 2 pair, an overpair, and if a club hits the river a possible flush. I find myself check/folding the turn. There are just way to many ways to beat you and you only have 7 outs. And even if you hit your aces I dont think that would do it for you so id say you have to catch a jack. 3 outs is an easy fold for me.

-Night

[Ric]

I may get flamed for this, but I think you played this fine. The only legit raise on the flop came from the BB. UTG+1 was just trying to get all-in as soon as possible, and SB was just capping his draw (yes I thought that even before reading the rest of the hand). No one misses the chance to bet twice with a monster. I just saw your read on SB, I still stand by what I say. I'll say he has 2 big clubs.

With that said, it still brings us back to the BB's checkraise. I can see him doing it with a straight, 2 pair, or a set, or maybe TP good kicker. Given that the board pairs on the turn, that's not much that you can beat. I want to say fold to the turn bet, but the pot seems too big to do that, even if you only have 3 outs. The same goes for the river, but there it's more of pot size than outs. I'd probably call it down like you did.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
may get flamed for this, but I think you played this fine. The only legit raise on the flop came from the BB. UTG+1 was just trying to get all-in as soon as possible, and SB was just capping his draw (yes I thought that even before reading the rest of the hand). No one misses the chance to bet twice with a monster. I just saw your read on SB, I still stand by what I say. I'll say he has 2 big clubs.


[/ QUOTE ]

The only person I was afraid of in this hand was BB, I had no read on him at all so I had no idea what his c/r meant. Your thoughts on SB were the exact same as mine while the hand was playing out. When he check/called the flop I immediately put him on a draw whether it be the OESD, flush draw, or both.


[ QUOTE ]
With that said, it still brings us back to the BB's checkraise. I can see him doing it with a straight, 2 pair, or a set, or maybe TP good kicker. Given that the board pairs on the turn, that's not much that you can beat. I want to say fold to the turn bet, but the pot seems too big to do that, even if you only have 3 outs. The same goes for the river, but there it's more of pot size than outs. I'd probably call it down like you did.

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing with BB's c/r was that I was not the one to 3-bet (UTG's all-in was the 3-bet) and he didn't get to cap (SB capped his draw) so we both didn't really know where the other one stood. For all he knows I could have AK since after my initial bet I slowed down and just called the rest of the bets. When SB checked the turn, BB either 1) figured his J was still good and bets or 2) bet his boat/two pair/straight. Either way, I have no idea what to put him on since he wasn't the one who got to cap the flop. I figured the pot is huge so I have to call down since I'm sure SB is on a draw and isn't going to c/r the turn and will fold the river if it is a blank.

I'm glad someone is on the same page as me /images/graemlins/smile.gif Results to follow

[ZootMurph]

BB check/raised the flop. He must have hit it pretty hard. Since you didn't have a read on him, UTG+1 is all-in, and SB is TAG and capping, you can clearly fold to the 3 bets to you on the flop. I don't think TPTK is enough against a check/raise from an unknown and a capped flop. In addition, you have someone all-in so you will be able to get a read with it only costing you a total of 1.5BB.

[chief444]

bakku, I agree with your thoughts on the BB. You don't know where he stands after the flop. Most people assume a check/raise means a big hand all the time. This just isn't true. I will sometimes check/raise a hand that you would have had beat in this case for that exact reason.

I probably would have called down as well. You could even make an argument for raising again on the flop or turn but with the pot as big as it is I would play it the same.

[ZootMurph]

chief444, the point here is that there are SEVERAL other people in, and a lot of raising. There are times when it is best to fold the possible best hand. This is one of those times, in my opinion.

Let's say that 1 has a KJ, one has a 9, and the other has two /images/graemlins/club.gif. In this case, cards that hurt you are: King (3), club (9), queen (4), and 7 (4). That means there are a possible 20 cards that beat you out there, out of 42 (52 minus the flop (3), your 2, KJ of player 1, two clubs of player 3, and the 9 in player 2... 10 known). Not only that, but it is possible that a back door hand can beat you, like if the clubs are A8, or if the straight draw is sitting on a 89. If you are ahead, you are less than a 50% favorite... I wouldn't play it further.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
chief444, the point here is that there are SEVERAL other people in, and a lot of raising. There are times when it is best to fold the possible best hand. This is one of those times, in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only person I'm afraid of being ahead of me at this point is the BB, UTG is already all-in and I'm sure SB is on a draw with his check on the turn. I don't like the idea of folding in a 18BB pot just because I *could* be drawn out on if there's a chance I'm still ahead.

[bakku]

BB shows J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and UTG+1 had 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif, MHIG.

A couple of you have said I should have folded the turn because there are so many ways I could be drawn out on, not because I was probably behind. While the way I played the hand and whether I was ahead on the flop or not is debateable, I think folding the possible best hand just because I could be drawn out on is not the right move. Thoughts?

[StellarWind]

You played this fine. Based on the flop it is very possible you are the only player with a hand. SB is pretty clearly drawing to something, UTG+1 is just getting maximum value out of his last chip and could have almost anything, and while BB may have the goods he could either be drawing or attacking your "overcards" with one pair.

On the turn you have outs and may still be ahead. BB doesn't have a lot to lose by betting the turn regardless of what he has. The coordinated middle-card board really won't allow a preflop raiser to raise the turn very often. If he needs to call a bet he is better off betting instead.

On the river you can't fold at 17.5-1 when your hand will often be good.

[StellarWind]

Thoughts?

I think this result is not at all surprising. There are a zillion good draws on this board that people could be betting. They greatly outnumber the supply of made hands that beat AJ. You also have a few outs of your own. You just have to hang in there and realize that you don't need to win these that often to make money.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this result is not at all surprising. There are a zillion good draws on this board that people could be betting. They greatly outnumber the supply of made hands that beat AJ. You also have a few outs of your own. You just have to hang in there and realize that you don't need to win these that often to make money.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, no, I agree with everything you say. In fact, that's basically what I said. I was more asking for thoughts from people who think folding the turn was the correct play..

[ZootMurph]

I would have folded and lost a lot of bets. EV wise, I still think it is a negative play for the reasons I have stated. Without reads, I'm not assuming they are playing junk and throwing money in for no reason.

I'm somehow beginning to believe that I'm missing something about how EV actually works, and I'd really, really like someone to explain it to me using this hand as an example. Thanks in advance!

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded and lost a lot of bets. EV wise, I still think it is a negative play for the reasons I have stated. Without reads, I'm not assuming they are playing junk and throwing money in for no reason.

I'm somehow beginning to believe that I'm missing something about how EV actually works, and I'd really, really like someone to explain it to me using this hand as an example. Thanks in advance!

[/ QUOTE ]
OK. Take a look at BB's hand: J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. This hand has top pair with poor kicker, an OESD, and a backdoor flush draw. He has 14 outs, which means he is slightly over 50% to upgrade his hand by the river. I am well aware that his outs are not high quality. Nevertheless, between his current pair and his chances to improve he should feel pretty good about his hand. He was absolutely correct to take aggressive action on the flop. He can improve his winning chances by driving people out of the hand. Failing that he still makes money with his flop bets if he can get two or more callers, because he should win at least 1/3 of the time.

On the turn he might as well bet into the reduced field and see who he can frighten. This is a borderline semibluff/value bet but it should be +EV overall because it could knock someone important out of the hand and because if he checks he'll probably be made to call a bet anyway.

The point is BB has properly made a tremendous amount of noise and yet you are ahead of him and have a good chance to stay there. With this board there are a great many other possible hands that fall into the same general category. UTG+1 has another one: baby flush draw with an idiot gutshot. Not the greatest but it will win quite often. I might have directly raised the flop with his hand. As for the exquisite flop check-call-raise/turn call/river fold from SB, I'm sure he was a pure draw, probably to a high flush.

Everybody was on a draw. Even Hero, who is drawing for runner-runner blanks. That's why I say that you just need to hang onto your hand and hope that you draw well. You may only win 20-30% of the time but that is enough to pay the expenses on the losers.

There is another subtle lesson here. When the flop went out of control the person who should really be worried is UTG+1 with 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif. The crazy betting really points to a better flush draw and some better straight-making cards. Everyone else is hanging around a big pot with at least a few outs, but UTG+1 is likely drawing absolutely dead despite his four-flush.