Party 15/30 Top pair but the board gets ugly

[SoBeDude]

It's a good game. The main opponent in this hand is horrible. He sees about 50% of the flops.

I'm in the BB with red AJo, Horrible calls, fair button calls. I'm not raising AJo from the blinds as much these days so I just call.

Flop is 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet out, 50% calls, button folds.

Turn is: 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

dillema.

This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

Against this opponent I'm not folding top pair. Ever.

But I really don't want to pay 3 big bets to get to the showdown.

If I check and he bets I'm calling 100% of the time. I really don't want to be raised.

I also think he'll fold here if I bet and he has nothing. But if he catches any piece of the river card he'll call a river bet. Maybe he has a king or a queen, but he doesn't have both (he'd have raised PF w/KQ). So other than a spade he has few outs to beat me.

So I checked. He checked behind.

River is 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet he folds.

Should I have bet the turn with such a scary board?

-Scott

[astroglide]

raise preflop, bet the turn, not even close.

[King_J]

So go ahead and bet for *piiiip* sake!
Pay him off if he raises.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like just about the perfect situation in which to bet.

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop, bet the turn, not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

raise?? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif what about KQo? ATo? KJo? KTs? raise raise raise?

[Ulysses]

I probably wouldn't raise pre-flop.

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This guy isn't going to fold any spade now. He'll raise me with a flush, a 9, a big spade, or straight draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds like just about the perfect situation in which to bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this answer, since Hero is either drawing fairly thin to a flush (four outs) or Opponent's 9 (two outs), or he is comfortably ahead of a flush draw or str8 draw. So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind. What's so good about this?

[astroglide]

i would raise KQo

[astroglide]

1 horrible limp, 1 button overlimp (weaker than average hands limp here). he didn't mention the sb who presumably limped, but they will throw $15 of dead money into the pot here often enough by folding after you raise. AJ is almost assurably the best hand.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand this answer, since Hero is either drawing fairly thin to a flush (four outs) or Opponent's 9 (two outs), or he is comfortably ahead of a flush draw or str8 draw. So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind. What's so good about this?

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about all the holdings his opponent could have. Assess how likely they each are. Decide how much you like giving a free card v. betting for each hand. Then figure out whether checking or betting is better.

So Hero is equally likely to be raised when he is either ahead or behind.

Even if that is true (which is not necessarily the case), what about all the times he will just get called by a worse hand?

If you thought your opponent's most likely hand is KsTd, would you like checking here?

[DcifrThs]

Sobedude,

I think this may be what astro was talking about by the level of posts. against one limper, one horrible limper and the sb you RAISE the AJo...why? because its likely the best hand now so get more $$ in when you've got it, its easy to play given you know they'll call with any piece so no worries there, AND you get the sb's dead money when he folds and keep the pot shorthanded against 2 bad players.

bet flop, no brainer.

turn comes aspade. IF YOU KNOW for fact he raises here with the 9 or a made flush but calls with the flush draw/straight draw/lesser hand (underpair), then there is no situation in which i would rather be in on the turn..its the easiest play ever. you bet, fold for a raise and be done with it. "not even close." he's right because it isn't even close. if he calls and the river blanks, bet again, he might have hit that blank and now have enough to call, he may call with ace high...he may do lots of poor stuff that makes you money. hes a horrible player!!

bet the turn!!
-Barron

[J.A.Sucker]

I agree that AJ is almost assuredly the best hand, but I think raising is a mistake. I like keeping the pot smaller here, since I may be able to steal it later. Plus, people seem to be more likely to make plays at people who show strength early in the hand (an aspect of online play that I still don't understand, but i think they want to show you how large their genitals are). Finally, if you don't have the best hand, then you're running uphill.

That said, it's probably not a big mistake to raise it, it's just not my style.

[astroglide]

one can only subjectively consider how often they may be able to take it down when they check. raising objectively either puts in 3 extra bets and removes an opponent or puts in 4 extra bets, and in both cases you have the best of it. people making plays at you is a good thing if you're aware of it. the odds of not having the best hand are so low that it should not even be considered. position isn't enough of an issue to overcome this.

i will go on record to say that not raising is a mistake.

[J.A.Sucker]

Fair enough. I just disagree, but that's life.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
the odds of not having the best hand are so low that it should not even be considered.

[/ QUOTE ]

Horrible players often limp in any position w/ small pairs.

[astroglide]

...and 3/4-handed i like my hand much better than a small pair.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
one can only subjectively consider how often they may be able to take it down when they check.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dood, we should run a Turbo Texas Hold 'Em sim.....

Your semantics here are highly misleading. The question, as with all these frickin' preflop debates lately, is whether pushing a small, immediate (preflop) edge might do anything to compromise your postflop edge. Both considerations are perfectly "objective"; that one might be easier to measure than the other has little to do with it.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
...and 3/4-handed i like my hand much better than a small pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, cool. I misread. I thought you said the odds of someone having a better hand than you were too low to consider. Now I understand you meant the odds of you not liking your hand best are too low to consider. Got it.

[astroglide]

since you are capable of overlimping w/AKo on the button i doubt we are going to get anywhere discussing this. while i agree with you that it is possible to measure anything, the fact that there are not any objective results for checking makes the decision to do it solely based on the subjective.

note: senor choppy has been running sims on this, and the results so far have not been favorable for checking, but he could use more input on the tweaks. see this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=625596&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) thread for details.

[astroglide]

what are the odds of you going berserk on semantics today? my position is very clear.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
since you are capable of overlimping w/AKo on the button i doubt we are going to get anywhere discussing this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overlimping with AKo is not my standard play. Just knuckling with AJo in the BB probably is my standard play. The two situations aren't really comparable; in the former case, it's a matter of wanting to manipulate postflop calling odds in a classic, HEFAP loose game seeting. In the latter case, the argument for not raising has to do mostly with giving away your hand.

[ QUOTE ]
while i agree with you that it is possible to measure anything, the fact that there are not any objective results for checking makes the decision to do it solely based on the subjective.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you understand what 'objective' means.

[ QUOTE ]
note: senor choppy has been running sims on this, and the results so far have not been favorable for checking, but he could use more input on the tweaks. see this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=625596&page=0&view=collap sed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1) thread for details.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been keeping track of that thread. It has convinced me that calling before the flop with AKo against a field of many limpers is probably the wrong play. I don't think choppy's results suggest, however, that any time you have a preflop edge of any magnitude, you ought to raise.

I don't mean to personalize this too much, but I think part of the difference in opinion stems from the fact that you're playing 6 tables at once, which lends itself to making more sorts of 'volume' plays like this one. (I usually play 2 shorthanded tables at once, or one short game and one full).

[astroglide]

i fully understand what "objective" means. we have objective data that supports raising. we only have subjective data to support checking. it is technically possible to get objective data for checking, but nobody has yet. ergo, the decision to check is based on subjective reasoning.

i'm glad you think it has something to do with my playing 6 tables, because it indicates that i am interested in doing what is the most profitable in the long run. in my case, the long run happens quicker. for others, they may wish to simply book a winning session at their single table but it doesn't make the play more correct. i would raise this in a casino game as well because i am interested in the greatest long-term profit, regardless of variance.

the whole basis of this conversation is questioning "fair share" raises: AK, AJ, or any other hand that wins more than its fair share. choppy's sims are very directly applicable to this situation, because it is the same concept.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
raise preflop, bet the turn, not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

raise?? /images/graemlins/shocked.gif what about KQo? ATo? KJo? KTs? raise raise raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, Yes, Yes and Yes.

Any other questions?

I'm with Astro on this one and I'm shocked that U and JAS aren't also. Checking against these opponents seems totally absurd to me. I'm sure the "fair player" on the button appreciates being able to take the flop for just one bet with 68s.

[Joe Tall]

I probably wouldn't raise pre-flop

I'm very surprised.

This hand is horribly played and the answer is easy. What's all the debate about?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm glad you think it has something to do with my playing 6 tables, because it indicates that i am interested in doing what is the most profitable in the long run. in my case, the long run happens quicker. for others, they may wish to simply book a winning session at their single table but it doesn't make the play more correct. i would raise this in a casino game as well because i am interested in the greatest long-term profit, regardless of variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not *exactly* what I'm saying. The case for not raising with certain hands preflop because you think it will potentially lead to more overall profit over all streets surely is a fairly narrow one, and I think it depends upon having a *very* acute understanding of table dynamics and opponent tendencies, one that probably isn't possible if your 6-tabling.

[astroglide]

i believe i am acutely aware of table dynamics and player tendencies while 6-tabling, so i ask that you please just trust me and pretend that i'm playing 2 tables. that being said, the situation in which checking may be more profitable is not even defined, so i don't know why it's relevant.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm with Astro on this one and I'm shocked that U and JAS aren't also. Checking against these opponents seems totally absurd to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say it's a stylistic matter that I couldn't probably explain without a folksy Angeloesque post. I don't disagree that raising AJo there might be +EV in the context of a default optimal EV overall game strategy. But raising AJo there just doesn't really fit smoothly into my overall plan.

[J.A.Sucker]

When you get a chance to play a bit more with me, Clark, you'll see that my comment about the AJ here is really in line with my style. As for Ulysses, he did learn a lot about how to play poker from me, so it's not surprising.

[J.A.Sucker]

Oh yeah, I'd rather be the guy on the button with 86s than be me in the BB with AJo in this situation. Oh yeah, and I may not be limping with it.