Good enough Omaha draw to call on turn?

[Krytemaster]

Hi!

Just got home from the local casino where a pot-limit dealers choice game is held. The blinds are 50-100 SEK (Swedish crowns) and the game this round is Omaha.

Interesting players:

Me(UTG) : 8700 SEK
Good loose aggressive player (LP): 20 000 SEK
Chinese, loosest calling station ever(!!!) (CO): 5400 SEK
Loose agg bad player (BUTTON): 7000 SEK

(1000 SEK = $130, but it shouldn´t make any difference)

To the hand...

I raise preflop to 350 SEK with /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gifT, and we are seven who see the flop. Pot 2500 SEK.

The flop is /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif2.

It´s checked around. Pot 2500 SEK.


The turn is /images/graemlins/club.gif8, giving me an openended straight draw and nut flush draw. I check and LP bets the pot of 2500 SEK. Loose Chinese calls (could be almost any two cards). Loose agg button goes all-in with 6700 SEK...

Its now up to me with 8400 SEK in front of me and openended straight and nut flush draw in my hand, what to do?

My reasoning is that the good loose aggressive player in LP probably has 6 7, the straight and one of my outs. Chinese can have anything, maybe a single pair... Button can have a set, the straight or a flush draw only (I have seen him make crazy plays...).

I tried to figure out my odds for a while and made my decision (I´ll post it later with results).

What would you experienced Omaha players do in this situation?


Thanks in advance, Krytemaster

[crockpot]

well, if i'm sure my 14 nut outs are good for the whole pot here, i call for sure. but what are these guys calling with? if the flop was checked around, i certainly don't put anyone on a flopped set. could the bettor or caller have a hand like 88xx or 98xx? even if one of them does, one of the two probably has a JT here. is he going to fold it?

i doubt anyone is drawing at the flush because you have the ace and king of the flush suit, but maybe a loose player would. an extra 1700 left after the call doesn't leave me much in the way of implied odds.

i think i call here, but it's a close decision either way. if the bettor and caller fold, you have your odds to call unless the all in player has a hand like JT76. and if they call, you may have some outs reduced to splits, but you're getting better pot odds.

[Krytemaster]

I called figuring I had some outs. The river came /images/graemlins/club.gif2, giving both a third club and a paired table, but no flush or full house was out there. LP and Button split the pot with thr straight.

Krytemaster

[pokeryogi]

Did you think of semi-bluff the flop with a pot bet?
Could have one the pot right there. And if not, your calling that turn card anyways, right? Just my thought.
Still learning,
PY

[schwza]

just a note - hero doesn't have 14 nut outs here. 2 straight cards are clubs, and 2 spades pair the board, so it's only 10 nut outs, and as others have mentioned, there's a good chance one of these guys holds JT.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
just a note - hero doesn't have 14 nut outs here. 2 straight cards are clubs, and 2 spades pair the board, so it's only 10 nut outs, and as others have mentioned, there's a good chance one of these guys holds JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Schwza - Yeah. Exactly.

What I did was discount those four enigmatic cards and figure the the odds against catching a favorable card as 30 to 10, or 3 to 1 without them. Then I looked at those four cards and figured the odds against winning with them might be (who knows, but let's suppose) also 3 to 1. And in that case, the odds against making a winner would be about 3 to 1.

Then, assuming everybody else would just call, the pot odds would be something like 21300 to 6700, making it a slightly favorable bet for Krytemaster.

However, if LP decided to raise, then the pot odds would be something like 23000 to 8400, making it a slightly unfavorable bet for Krytemaster.

And if nobody else called Loose Agg Button, and if Loose Agg Button has a made hand at this point, then without even adding it up, Krytemaster clearly doesn't have favorable odds. Thus the two questions to answer seem to be, (1) "Is Loose Agg Button bluffing?" and (2) "How will the other players respond to the all-in bet if Krytemaster calls?"

I have no idea how to answer those questions for Krytemaster. Does anyone?

Buzz

[Krytemaster]

[ QUOTE ]
(1) "Is Loose Agg Button bluffing?" and (2) "How will the other players respond to the all-in bet if Krytemaster calls?"


[/ QUOTE ]


1) Loose Agg Button could very well be semibluffing here. As Crockpot mentioned before its not likely that it would be checked around if anyone hit a set on the flop and Loose Agg Button would definitely bet his set here. But he could be in there with a draw or maybe two pairs as far as I know him.

2) LP (the good loose agg player) will call/force me to call my last 1600 here almost always - he wouldn´t have made such a strong bet without a hand worth playing. The Chinese in CO will definitely call, he is the dream opponent(calls anything with at least one out...).


To answer another post in this post as well...

[ QUOTE ]
Did you think of semi-bluff the flop with a pot bet? / pokeryogi

[/ QUOTE ]

It was a quite good flop for me but the game was very loose and I might very well have to put in all money on the flop if I bet out the pot. Some of the better opponents in the game will probably put me on high cards - at least not a good hand for that flop and might put pressure on me. What do I do to a pot re-raise? Call with my last 5800? If someone raises me all-in with a set I won´t get enough odds to call - even if its close and maybe right anyway to show that I´m not to be pushed around... But still, I can take it down there. Maybe I should have? Any more opinions on this?


Krytemaster

[pokeryogi]

You brought some good points on not semi-bluffing the pot on the flop. Especially the nature of the table and re-raise possibilities. And someone else mentioned your number of nut outs, only 10, the more the merrier. But a re-raise definitely puts you on the fence. Then you have to look at turn+river odds for the rest of your stack.
Still learning,
PY

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
1) Loose Agg Button could very well be semibluffing here. As Crockpot mentioned before its not likely that it would be checked around if anyone hit a set on the flop and Loose Agg Button would definitely bet his set here. But he could be in there with a draw or maybe two pairs as far as I know him.

2) LP (the good loose agg player) will call/force me to call my last 1600 here almost always - he wouldn´t have made such a strong bet without a hand worth playing. The Chinese in CO will definitely call, he is the dream opponent(calls anything with at least one out...).

[/ QUOTE ]

Krytemaster - All right. In that case, let’s take a stab at figuring your odds.

We’ll assume LP will put you all-in if you call. That’s obviously a shame because you have no chance of collecting on the river if you hit your draw. Part of the value in playing a draw is collecting on the fourth betting round if you hit your draw on the river. But since there will be no implied odds to consider, we’ll calculate your pot odds and then try to take a stab at your hand odds.

2500 SEK from first betting round.
5100 SEK from CO,
6700 SEK from Loose Agg Bad Player
8400 SEK from LP

8400 SEK will be cost to Krytemaster

22700/8400 = 2.7.

Your pot odds, assuming LP puts you all-in, and also assuming CO will call, are 2.7 to 1.

Hand odds are tougher. You need to hit your draw and make a flush or straight, but may lose if the river is 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, or Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. We should consider the possibility of an opponent making the same straight, a distinct possibility - but I have a sense for how this will turn out without that consideraton, and I'm going to save that consideration for the end.

[ QUOTE ]
My reasoning is that the good loose aggressive player in LP probably has 6 7, the straight and one of my outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reasonable thinking. Probably so. However, you can’t use that thinking to figure your hand odds. Some of your favorable cards are missing, but so are some of the unfavorable ones. You can’t tell how many of each. From the standpoint of figuring hand odds, there are forty four unknown cards.

The enigmatic 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, and Q/images/graemlins/club.gif could be favorable or unfavorable. If you could look into your opponent’s hands, you’d know, but of course you can’t do that. Of the remaining forty unknown cards, ten are favorable while thirty are unfavorable. That leaves five hand odds possibilities, depending on how many of the unknown cards are winners for you.

34 to 10 = 3.4 to 1,
33 to 11 = 3.0 to 1,
32 to 12 = 2.7 to 1,
31 to 13 = 2.4 to 1, and
30 to 14 = 2.1 to 1.

Thus you would have favorable odds if you could peek into your opponents hands and see that three or four of those four enigmatic cards would be winners for you - but you’d have unfavorable odds if none or only one of the enigmatic cards would be winners for you. If exactly two of the enigmatic cards would be winners, then you’d have even odds.

Let’s look at the cards one at a time.

5/images/graemlins/spade.gif :
If one of your opponents flopped a set, then the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif is a bad card for you. If one of your original opponents flopped two pair, the 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif is probably a bad card for you - but if an opponent had top and bottom pairs, maybe 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif will win for you. The card is probably a loser for you, but not a certain loser. Let’s give it a 25% chance.

8/images/graemlins/spade.gif :
If one of your opponents flopped a set, or if one of your opponents happens to hold 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif or 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif plus a nine, five, or deuce, then the 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif is a bad card for you - but otherwise, the 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif will win for you. You don’t think any of them flopped a set. Let’s give 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif a 50% chance.

7/images/graemlins/club.gif or Q/images/graemlins/club.gif :
If one of your opponents happens to hold two clubs, then 7/images/graemlins/club.gif or Q/images/graemlins/club.gif is a bad card for you - but otherwise they’re winners. You have three opponents. The random chance of any one of them holding at least two clubs if 7/images/graemlins/club.gif or Q/images/graemlins/club.gif comes on the river is approximately fifty-fifty.

Adding it all up, it looks like about 175%, slightly short of the two cards you need to get even odds. Looks to me like it’s close to even, but you’re a bit on the short side.

Accordingly, from purely an odds standpoint, I think a fold is in order after Loose Agg Button pots it.

Note that I did not consider the possibility of one of your opponents making the same straight as you, causing you to only get half the pot. Even without it, I don't think you have favorable odds to call. But when you add the distinct possibility of an opponent making the same straight, the odds are even more unfavorable. From an odds standpoint, a fold is clearly in order here.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Krytemaster]

Thanks for the analyze, Buzz! I appreciate it.

As your calculations say, a fold would be better. Another point to consider is that the game was a quite good game and I had no more money if I lose the pot. This would make my decision going even more to the "fold direction", since I could probably make some money there (on average) if I could keep playing.

It was a bad call - but I´ve learned a lesson.


Thanks again, Buzz

Krytemaster