The Suckout King

[James282]

I think my play is questionable on all streets.
Party 10/20 sixmax.

UTG fish limps, CO(2+2 regular) limps, I limp with Ad3d, SB completes and BB checks.

Flop is 3s4d7c. Checked to the 2+2er who bets, I raise, Sb folds, BB folds, UTG calls 2, 2+2er calls.

Turn is the 8d. Checked to me and I check.

River is the 3c. UTG checks, 2+2er bets, I raise, UTG folds, 2+2er calls. MHIG, thoughts?
-James

[naphand]

Why is this a suckout? You have a pair plus A kicker on an otherwise raggedy board plus backdoor flush, I think this is an easy raise.

You pick up the flush draw on the Turn and elect to take the free card - always the option you have and I see no problem with it here, though you have 14 outs to improve against 2 players, which makes a semi-bluff a pretty strong play (you might even be winning), esp. as they must be worried about a set with your PF limp.

Do you think you should have gone for the overcall on the River? I don't think I would want to. 2+2er possibly has a PP or is betting overcards into your missed draw (I favour the former, as it looks like it could have been a missed CR on the Turn). Your raise certainly gets called by 2+2er but fish may well just fold if you only call.

PF you maybe could raise this against 2 limpers, you make no mention of how often the blinds defend, or your rationale for limping, unless it is the 2+2er limping that has you fazed.

From your title, and the 2+2er limp, I'm guessing 2+2er showed you AA.

[daryn]

i agree with naphand, i'd bet the turn as a semi-bluff.

as far as the showdown i would think that the 2+2'er either showed down something like a 99 (not too likely) or a pair of 7's, maybe a 78s or something.

[James282]

Honestly I didn't check the hand history to see what he had, I was playing a more bizarre hand on another table. FWIW, the 8 falling made me pretty nervous about 2 pair and I didn't want to get check-raised, especially since I had so many outs. I did not think I was ahead after both of these opponents called my flop raise, and I don't think a semi-bluff is usually wise against 2 opponents on the turn especially when you have what are likely 14 or so outs.

I don't like the overcall here because the crappy player will call a raise with any pair and it seems highly unlikely that the 2+2er would have played a set this way(fearing the free card on the flop against 2 opponents), but if the crappy guy does fold, the 2+2er will have to call fearing that I raised for a free card on the flop and am now trying to steal on the river.
-James

[naphand]

I don't have a problem calling a CR with 14 outs and a fish coming along for the ride... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Turn: surely the only reasonable hand that makes 2-pair is 78. That's not a lot of hands to fear. I suppose A8 and A7 are possibles, but surely 2+2er raises these PF if he is playing them, or 3-bets the flop? If he does CR the Turn you have plenty of outs to improve even without the Aces.

River: even more reasons to raise, if fish calls any raise with any pair, no questions about your play there.

Go check PT and let us see what they had....and determine if your title is correct.

[James282]

Hey nap, your wink indicates to me that you dont realize that if I am behind on the turn, and I get check-raised, that I am getting my money in with the worst of it, whether it's 1 bets or 4. Even if someone just has 1 pair that is better than mine, I am only about a 30% chance to win by the river. If someone has a set, I am about 4:1 to win on the river. I really really don't want to put any more money in than I have to. Also, I can expect to get multiple bets out of the river if I hit if I check behind and expect not to lose anymore when I am behind. This should make the check-behind pretty routine.
-James

[kiddo]

I aggre with others. Bet turn and check behind on river if you dont improve. This is pretty standard, not the other way around.

If you check turn you give your hand away. You scream: "I am on a draw!" and a decent player will probably bet into you on river and then you have to pay anyway.

I qoute from one of my favourite books, Ciafonne/Brier: "Middle Limit Holdem Poker":

[ QUOTE ]
Summing up turnplay: Bet to find out what is really going on, to get the weak hands out, to provide a chance to win the pot without a showdown, and to be placed well for the final betting round. All the top holdem players have a strong arm on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

[James282]

Hey Kiddo, I don't need you to quote a book for me. Especially when you don't really understand the quote. I have no problems going to war with as little as TPTK for 3 bets on the turn in these games, but I thought there was virtually no chacne that my hand was good against two opponents, and I know for a fact that neither would fold a better hand in this situation. Also, I could have folded safely on the river for 1 bet if I missed.

I don't need to pay 1-2 bets to know what is "really going on" when I already know what is going on for free.
-James

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no problems going to war with as little as TPTK for 3 bets on the turn in these games, but I thought there was virtually no chacne that my hand was good against two opponents, and I know for a fact that neither would fold a better hand in this situation. Also, I could have folded safely on the river for 1 bet if I missed.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your play is pretty obvious then. You're behind, have lots of outs, and are up against an opponent who is almost certainly capable of check-raising. Yeah, I'll take the free card.

[J.R.]

I see no value to a turn semi-bluff after taking a shot on the flop and getting called in 2 places with bottom pair and no good draws on the flop. What does this 2+2er have (I assume he plays well) that he folds to a turn bet? The 8 is no scare card and he called the flop. Its not likely he wants to see if you have a overcard draw or will fire again, and I assume he has noticed you are playing aggressively (which I would imagine you have been).

2+2er would be getting at least 7-2 to call it down, depending on what the fish does. I see little value to the turn bet, especially with so many outs and the great chance you are behind against 2 opponents. It seems the bet without outs, check behind with outs idea applies here, as its unclear where you stand but likely you are taking versus giving a free card in this spot and no better hand should fold after calling the flop raise.

[James282]

Hey J.R., this is exactly what I was thinking.
-James

[naphand]

What I actually said was that taking the free card was ok but the semi-bluff looked a strong play too.

But what I struggle with here is why your bet would be better if you have less outs?, if your opponents are unlikely to fold anyway (which is your read)? Surely betting out on the Turn with a hand that is likely ahead but has few outs to improve is a good idea, as you want to limit the number of opponents who may draw a better hand. Surely this is the point? You have lots of outs and think you are behind, then take the free card. If that was your thinking, that's fine but, you seemed to have doubts about the play.

I can see justifications for taking the free card or making the semi-bluff bet, so I think there is no "normal" play, just a choice of options that are game/opponent/read dependent. It seems to me your outs have nothing to do with your opponents response - it's just a question of whether your bet pushes anyone out, not the number of outs you have? If you say your bet does not get a better hand to fold here, this is likely true, but you also charge them to draw which is also quite likely esp. with fish-face still lurking in the reed-bed. As Nate says, if your read was you were behind, then the free card play is obvious, esp. as you figure they ain't folding and might CR you.

Hands that people stay with past that flop? A2s, A5s, suited overcards with backdoor flush, middle pairs (obviously), any 8 or 7. Fish-boy probably stays with any overcards. I think there are a few possible hands that can outdraw you, its just whether you choose to believe that 2-pair is a real risk, you also say 2+2er is unlikely to play a set this way; I think it's unlikely, but an overpair (to yours) is possible. Maybe it was 2+2er that was taking a shot at the pot? He probably can call the raise with just overcards (like T9s?) plus a backdoor draw and see the Turn card do you want him to draw to these overcards?

You have 14 outs, you are getting your share of the money with 2 opponents (you are 2.3:1 to improve, and get 2:1 on your bet so there only has to be a small chance they will fold and/or a small chance you are ahead to justify this play). Calling a (check) raise gives you much better odds than 2:1 esp. if fish calls along as well, which is why I am not worried about calling a CR in this situation. You may be "putting money in with the worst of it" but you won't know that until you get CR, by which time you have the odds to call.

Are you planning to check/fold the River unimproved? or check/call? (surely not based on your read).

Why do you think you will get multiple bets out of the River if you improve? If you are behind to a set you make an under-set on the River and lose multiple bets, if you make your flush, your play (raising the flop, checking behind on the turn) is pretty much telling everyone you are drawing and the flush card on the River is unlikely to see a great deal of action. An A is gonna scare anyone with any pair, providing A4, A7 or A8 is not out there, in which case you lose multiple bets again. I don't think a lot of action on the River is a certainty as most of the cards that fall are scare cards (flush or A).

My first reaction when reading the post was to bet the Turn as a semi-bluff (with a very good chance to improve and some chance you were ahead). Based on your reads and other points, I can see the free-card play had more going for it than I supposed; I would check-behind a lot of times with this as well, certainly if I felt I had little chance to fold anyone out and felt I was behind.

In your post James, you said your play "was questionable on all streets", so I am questioning it. /images/graemlins/cool.gif That does not mean your play was wrong, or even that I think it was wrong, it just means I am questioning it....and I can be wrong /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[James282]

Hey nap, I wasn't trying to offend you, I was addressing your statement that you wouldn't mind getting check-raised if you were behind. The main reason I posted this was to show the trend that I have developed in my play to stay away from semibluffing multiple opponents. I think the semibluff is egregiously overused when last to act in online poker, as people are quite likely to go to the river with any piece of the board. While the 2+2er might have folded on the turn I can pretty much guarantee fish man wouldn't have(and I don't think the 2+2er would fold anything he bet/called the flop with). I don't think this is "read based," I think it has to do with acting based on the flop action. The flop action said "we both have a piece of this board," and if they weren't giving up there I doubt both of them woulda given up on the turn. Thanks for your comments, though, and I hope I didn't seem rude.
-James

[naphand]

No offence taken - if it was my post would have been a little different esp. as I had just come out of a HU match (which I won) and was in fighting mood.... /images/graemlins/mad.gif

I think the message in your post was either "I sucked out" (which I don't think you did, esp. as we have not seen your opponents hands yet) or "every street is questionable", but in the end you end up giving a vigorous defence of your play. I assumed you were looking for alternative plays as you had some doubts...

I think, yes, based on the flop action and your reads your line was perfectly OK. Without reads on players, the flop action could mean anything. I also think a "piece of the flop" could easily be suited overcards with some kind of draw, and fish-face almost anything (naked A or just overcards like KQ or JT) if indeed he is "le poisson". Your flop raise gave you options on the Turn, you had position, you took the free card. You seem comfortable with this line. I was not attacking you, just putting down reasons why I would be considering betting the Turn (and would not fear calling a CR).

I think the title of the post and your opening line directed traffic down the wrong highway, but let's not get all "mossad"/"stazi" about it....

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey Kiddo, I don't need you to quote a book for me. Especially when you don't really understand the quote.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeez. Why are you offending me?

I said I agreed with other posters: Bet turn!

Now you say that you know for a fact that you are behind on turn and that you know for a fact that a better hand will call if you bet turn. Yep, fine, but if you dont think there is anything to talk about, then why are you posting in the first place?

Do you consider your post as some kind of trap? You want us to say: "Bet turn!" and then show us how wrong we are?

[James282]

Hey..the turn wasn't the street that I was most concerned with, in fact I think it's the only street that is obvious(in my game, others may and obviously do play it differently). I wasn't trying to trap you at all. I figured more people would focus on the flop raise, which, looking back, I feel was a little bit dubious. I am also not sure about the EV of a preflop overlimp, or even the raise on the river! Anyway, the only reason it seems like I attacked you was because I post hands on this forums for posters' opinions, not book opinions. I have read plenty of hold 'em books and understand most of their basic concepts(like being strong on the turn). My defence of my play on the turn comes from the fact that I think semi-bluffing multiple opponents should be put on the back-burner for a while...people just don't fall for it the way they used to.

Also, sorry if the title of my post was misleading, the 2+2er questioned my play afterwards and even said "wow," so I just wanted to get more opinions. I assume he was most surprised that I raised the flop here.
-James

[naphand]

I think the flop raise was standard, and gave you options on the Turn. You had position against a player who, by your own judgement, was capable of CR you. If he called with that intention you just saved yourself half a bet to see the River, plus got some folds and dead money in the pot. You used the flop to make a strong statement, and bottom pair A kicker (esp. with the backdoor flush) is not trash, and I see no reason to start seeing demons playing sets and 2-pair. 2+2er's Turn play, as you say, does not suggest a set and fishy fish cakes, well can you put him on anything?

Maybe 2+2er had you marked for a CR, and you made a smart counter-move, esp. with the flush draw picked up on the Turn. I think your hand is very much one that illustrated just how important position is with hands like these.

Out of position, I think a lot would have to be reconsidered, though I doubt you are going to limp Axs from much else than LP.

You caught one of your outs, and I think you have to raise this. I see a lot of players (admittedly not at the level you play) call to the River, hit one of their outs and then just call. My immediate thought "WHAT are they doing? they pay good money to chase their outs and then are too afraid to bet when they get it!". The out you got was just the least trendy of your outs, a flush would have looked a lot better. I am surprised 2+2er was <shocked> you raised the flop, I believe HFAP talks specifically about the value of raising with hands like this and that goes double with your backdoor and position.

[I Like To Raise (tm)]

[ QUOTE ]

Your play is pretty obvious then. You're behind, have lots of outs, and are up against an opponent who is almost certainly capable of check-raising. Yeah, I'll take the free card.

[/ QUOTE ]


You don't think 15 outs coupled with the fact that you may win without further contest is enough to justify a turn bet? He can easily put you on an overpair or a set. Though an overpair probably would have raised preflop. You said he called you on the end -- what did he limp with?

[kiddo]

Nate was not telling you his line of play, he was responding to James:

[ QUOTE ]
there was virtually no chacne that my hand was good against two opponents (on turn), and I know for a fact that neither would fold a better hand

[/ QUOTE ]

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the only reason it seems like I attacked you was because I post hands on this forums for posters' opinions, not book opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess you got the impression - and I understand why - I used the bookqoute to prove I was right. Didnt mean it that way. The qoute is more like a mantra I tell myself when I am getting weak: "All the top holdem players have a strong arm on the turn".

Your standard play is check turn. Mine is bet. This thread made us both think.

Play well,
Kiddo

[James282]

[ QUOTE ]
Your standard play is check turn. Mine is bet. This thread made us both think

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right that it made me think! But I hope you realize that my standard play for this turn is check - normally I pound away on the turn about as much as anyone.
-James

[BookOfIcculus]

ok lets talk standard play for flop.

[James282]

Hey Book, it's impossible to answer that poll unless you know the action that has come before you. Also, in this hand, there was 1 bad, 1 good, and 2 relatively unknown players.
-James

[BookOfIcculus]

James, it's the perfect time for a raise to limit the field with the option to buy a free card. And the more passive the table the better the move. The more aggresive the table the worse the move. However, I'm just talking standrad moves. If you are voting in the poll please feel free to note it was a raised pot with 2 blinds left to act.

Is that better?


BTW james I'm still slightly disappointed that you didn't cap the A4 (I believe it was) hand you posted. Where the fish had KT, on a AA9JK board. Not that I'd have the balls to do it everytime. And I'm not dissapointed in you, but you got my hopes up, to see a truely masterful play.

[James282]

Hey Book, I would have considered a cap if I thought that it was better than 50% that my opponent was raising for value with a worse hand. I think a cap would have screamed "hey, I have at least an ace" and I would have gotten called far more by hands that beat mine than by hands that didn't. Though the headsup cap in online play makes it tempting - when I called the three-bet I thought I was probably tied with him or behind to a straight. Since he gave such excess action, I made more than I would have regardless of whether I capped or not /images/graemlins/smile.gif
-James